Arizona Cardinals RB James Conner ran for 1,000 yards for the first time in his career last year and has scored at least eight times in all three seasons with this franchise.
With Kyler Murray returning and Marvin Harrison Jr. in the mix, this could be the most advantageous environment of the 29-year-old’s career. Is it time to buy in fantasy football?
James Conner’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Total Fantasy Points: 227 (189non-PPR)
- Rushing Yards: 894
- Rushing TDs: 10
- Receptions: 38
- Receiving Yards: 286
- Receiving TDs: 2
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 16. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Conner This Year?
I’m very much a fan of jumping off running backs a year before the fantasy decline. Given the wear and tear at the position, managers who are cautious at the position often end up in a good spot when all the chips are in the middle of the table over the final month of the season.
James Conner set Career Highs in 2023🏆
🥇Rush Yards (1040)
🥇Yards per Carry (5.0)He was also Top-10 in⤵️
Breakaway Run Rate- 6.3% (#7)
Juke Rate- 24.7% (#8)
Evaded Tackles- 58 (#10)
EPA- 10.2 (#9)Are you drafting him?📢#PlayerProfilerStats pic.twitter.com/8X0BBVfaQ6
— PlayerProfiler (@rotounderworld) July 13, 2024
For me, players in that mix this season are Joe Mixon and Alvin Kamara. I don’t think Conner falls into this bucket, however, for two reasons: (1) we haven’t seen any indicators outside his birth certificate to assume a dip is coming, and (2) his price is palatable.
We are in the ADP evaluation business. There is a buying point for every single player ranked in the top 100; it’s just a matter of how you value the range of outcomes against the draft capital that you have to spend.
I wouldn’t fight you if you said that Conner’s odds of running into Father Time this season are just as bad as Mixon’s or Kamara’s, but, on draft day, it’s not a head-to-head question — Conner is going 25-30 picks later.
For me, that means his decline is being not only priced in but overcompensated. The Cardinals’ offense figures to be more potent than last year with a healthy Murray, a future (current?) star in Harrison, and a tight end in Trey McBride, who resembles the position’s future.
Even if you’re not as bullish as the market in Arizona, fading Conner (at cost) because of offensive limitations just isn’t an argument I’m willing to listen to.
- 2nd
- 10th
- 3rd
- 29th
- 15th
- 5th
- 30th
- 18th
- 16th
- 24th
Those seemingly random numbers are the scoring ranks of the offenses that featured the top 10 per-game scoring PPR running backs last season. Not only is there essentially no correlation, but the average of those rankings comes in at 15.2 — as down the middle as it gets.
Conner picked up 10+ yards on 31 of 208 carries last season after recording just 30 such totes on his first 385 attempts with Arizona. I’m not suggesting that his best football is in front of him, but it feels as if we are a ways away from the cliff that the industry seems to be so worried about.
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For the sake of full disclosure, the upside in this profile is capped. Conner’s PPR fantasy points per opportunity (rush attempts plus targets) have declined by over 10% in consecutive seasons, and inefficiency would be the way for third-round pick Trey Benson (15 touchdowns at Florida State last season) to see his usage rate increase throughout the season.
I’m confident in Arizona’s upside, which makes Conner a great buy in the late stages of Round 7. Last season, running backs that saw their team win the game averaged 21.6% more PPR ppg than the losing RBs.
That stat may seem like an anti-Conner one, but would you be shocked if the Cardinals rounded out the fantasy season with three straight wins (Patriots, Panthers, and Rams)?
I’m lukewarm on Conner as a player, but with a price that has him sitting in the wrong tier for me (ADP: RB19, late fifth round), he’s a player I’m landing on with regularity.
Jason Katz’s Analysis on Conner’s Fantasy Value
There is mostly a positive picture for Conner in 2024, but there is cause for concern.
For starters, Conner is 29 years old. There are a lot more fantasy-relevant running backs age 28+ than normal. However, that doesn’t make them any less scary.
Conner could easily fall off a cliff this season. The Cardinals are well aware of this possibility. That’s certainly part of the reason they spent a third-round pick on Trey Benson, making him the second-highest-drafted running back of the 2024 class.
Benson brings a different dimension to the running game than Conner. With a 4.39-second 40-yard dash time and a 98th percentile speed score, Benson is a home run threat in ways Conner just isn’t.
Given that their talents don’t overlap, Benson has the potential to significantly eat into Conner’s workload, if not take his job entirely.
It’s not necessarily likely, and definitely won’t happen right away, but it’s an added risk with Conner’s profile that did not exist last season.
With all that said, Conner’s ADP reflects these concerns. Despite finishing as the overall RB13 last year, Conner is going as the RB19. Yes, his floor is you drop him midseason. But very few running backs outside of the top guys are safe.
Conner could lose a chunk of his volume, regress to a low RB2, and still be a fine pick at his ADP. I am right in line with consensus on Conner, ranking him as my RB20.
Given his No. 60 overall ADP, Conner is worth drafting, especially if he falls below his ADP.
