One of the most polarizing players entering fantasy football drafts is Los Angeles Rams RB Kyren Williams. His breakout 2023 campaign, paired with the team’s decision to spend a Day 2 selection in the 2024 NFL Draft, makes his fantasy projections for the upcoming season very difficult.
Let’s take a closer at what to expect from Williams entering his third season in the NFL.
Kyren Williams’ 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Total Fantasy Points: 288.2
- Rushing Yards: 1,286.5
- Rushing TDs: 11.8
- Receptions: 42.0
- Receiving Yards: 291.7
- Receiving TDs: 2.9
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 16. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Williams was nothing short of outstanding over the entirety of the 2023 NFL season. His 1,350 total yards and 15 total touchdowns in just 12 games last year have him in elite territory.
Furthermore, Williams was the only running back in the NFL with more total touches (carries and receptions) per game than CMC. For some exact figures, Williams averaged 21.7 touches per game to Christian McCaffrey’s 21.2. If your usage is higher than McCaffrey’s and in the same ballpark as the San Francisco 49ers running back’s elite efficiency, then you know you are dealing with a potential fantasy star at the position.
Williams averaged 95 rushing yards on 19 carries and three receptions for 17 yards on a per-game basis in 2023. If you extrapolate those numbers over a 17-game season, then we could be looking at a fantasy ceiling of 1,615 rushing yards, 289 receiving yards, and 51 receptions.
Unfortunately, that isn’t exactly how things work in projections, and doing so would seemingly ignore the addition of rookie RB Blake Corum altogether.
Speaking of Corum, his presence certainly feels like it is being baked into these projections — as it should. Unless we are expecting Corum to see much closer to a 50/50 split in this backfield, 1,500+ total yards for Williams feels quite feasible based on what we saw from him in 2023.
As always, touchdowns are a bit tricky to project, but the fact he scored 15 in just 12 games last season makes his projection of 14 scores also very much within the range of outcomes.
The involvement of Corum and the question of whether Williams can duplicate the effectiveness he displayed as a ball carrier in 2023 following a largely irrelevant 2022 rookie year certainly introduces some doubt into his overall outlook for the 2024 season.
Yet, Williams’ projection here feels quite reasonable if he continues to see such a substantial amount of work in a productive Rams offense.
Should You Draft Williams This Year?
Williams’ ADP at No. 29 overall in the third round as the RB8 off the board right now feels rather appropriate, given the unknown nature of Corum’s impact on this offense.
For some additional context, De’Von Achane, Saquon Barkley, and Jonathan Taylor are the three backs going ahead of the third-year back. That doesn’t seem unreasonable, but there is a valid argument to be made that Williams could see more total touches than all of these players in 2024.
If you are a believer in Corum, then you are likely going to pass on Williams at this price point. Yet, I can’t help but feel like a player we saw average 5.02 yards per carry last season — which trailed only McCaffrey for backs who saw 200+ carries in 2023 — already showed us how much of an elite producer he can be when on the field in this offense.
Personally, I believe Williams’ fantasy ceiling is in the top three at the position. His floor is a bit uncertain with Corum joining the backfield, but I still expect him to lead this backfield in touches in 2024 — which makes him worth the risk as my RB2 in the third round of fantasy drafts.
