Philadelphia Eagles RB Saquon Barkley averaged 98.8 yards per game during his six years with the New York Giants and now takes his talents to a high-powered offense led by Jalen Hurts.
Are there too many mouths to feed in this offense, or can Barkley remind fantasy football managers of a rookie season that saw him clear 2,000 yards from scrimmage?
Saquon Barkley’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Total Fantasy Points: 303 (239 non-PPR)
- Rushing Yards: 1,313
- Rushing TDs: 8
- Receptions: 65
- Receiving Yards: 411
- Receiving TDs: 3
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 16. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Barkley This Year?
Fantasy is a game that isn’t much different from the stock market — you want to buy low and sell high. I’m not suggesting that Barkley is cheap, but after a down season and general stench around the Giants, I think some have lost touch with the upside in Barkley’s profile.
Goodness, Saquon Barkley 😳 pic.twitter.com/9tf14tvEaQ
— Kyle Yates (@KyleYNFL) December 17, 2023
Seasons with 1,300 rush yards and 120 targets
- 2003 LaDainian Tomlinson
- 2018 Saquon Barkley
- 2019 Christian McCaffrey
We play this game to win. Not to come in second place and not to sit in the middle of the standings, but to finish atop the standings. Barkley is available at the first/second-round turn in most spots and is the last player, in my opinion, coming off the board who has a reasonable chance to lead all Flex players in PPR fantasy points this season.
I understand that there are plenty of talented options and that receivers carry less risk than running backs, but what more could you ask for from a fantasy RB?
Barkley is entering his age-27 season (over the past 15 seasons, the majority of the 25 highest-scoring seasons from a PPR RB has come from a player aged 25-28) and leaving an offense that ranked 31st in success rate.
MORE: Fantasy Team Names | Fantasy League Names
He’s joining a team that ranked fifth despite every running back on its roster checking in below expectation when comparing their opportunity-adjusted fantasy scoring.
With everything around him going wrong, Barkley posted a career high in fantasy points per target last season (1.58 PPR points) and picked up 10+ yards on 10.5% of his carries, a rate that is spot on to his career rate.
In a situation that was as limiting as any, the former Nittany Lion still gave us good counting numbers and backed them up with a solid advanced foundation.
Even if you want to place Barkley sixth at the running back position, I prefer him to the tier of receivers in this ADP tier.
- Davante Adams: Last season was his ceiling, not an expectation.
- Marvin Harrison Jr.: Natural learning curve potential for a rookie.
- Chris Olave: Why would this year be any different than his first two?
- Drake London: What if Kirk Cousins isn’t fully healthy?
- Nico Collins: Elite talent, but a tremendous increase in opportunity competition.
I’m all-in on drafting Barkley at cost, and if you want to turn your league on its head, I think going power-RB at the turn with Jonathan Taylor/Barkley is interesting — zigging when the industry decides to zag can turn you a profit. If you’re going to do it in the early rounds, that’s my path!
Jason Katz’s Fantasy Insight on Saquon Barkley
The caliber of Philadelphia’s offense should improve Barkley’s efficiency, but rushing yards don’t make elite running backs — receptions and touchdowns do.
Even if we take Barkley’s 2023 volume and efficiency and tack on a full extra yard per carry, that would only add 1.7 points per game. Is around 17-18 ppg worth the RB5, No. 15 overall selection?
The early second round is a very tricky part of the draft. The running backs available are either safe but with questionable upside (Barkley, Jonathan Taylor), or have serious upside but aren’t very safe (Kyren Williams, De’Von Achane).
At the same time, there are several good wide receivers that taking one over the others doesn’t feel like an edge. That could steer fantasy managers back toward Barkley.
Ultimately, it’s unlikely Barkley will fail. However, I don’t see an elite RB1 upside, given the way the Eagles’ offense functions.