Washington Commanders WR Terry McLaurin has been a consistent producer for fantasy football managers in all five of his professional seasons, but he’s seen his ceiling limited by average quarterback play.
With Jayden Daniels set to take over Washington’s offense, is this the year that McLaurin truly breaks out?
Terry McLaurin’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Total Fantasy Points: 224(143 non-PPR)
- Receptions: 81
- Receiving Yards: 1,122
- Receiving TDs: 5
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 16. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft McLaurin This Year?
Change is a funny thing for fantasy managers, as it has to be judged on a case-by-case basis. Few people are excited about the change for Diontae Johnson in joining the Carolina Panthers, but everyone is bending over backward to get exposure to the Atlanta Falcons now that Kirk Cousins is under center.
The McLaurin situation falls somewhere between those two examples, but I tend to lean more on the optimistic side, thinking that the overall increase in offensive potential offsets a likely decline in pass rate (third in pass rate over expectation last season).
McLaurin indeed posted the worst yards per route run season of his career in 2023 (1.56), but we have tangible evidence that the problem in Washington recently has been its signal-caller, not its WR1.
Terry McLaurin pic.twitter.com/NXwVSA6Csi
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) May 7, 2024
From 2019-22, McLaurin ranked 16th in yards per route, speaking to how impactful his raw talent can be. Of the players ranked ahead of him on the list, only two cashed in fewer of their expected fantasy points (an internal metric based on where targets are earned).
Those two receivers? A past-his-prime Julio Jones who spent those four seasons with three organizations and DJ Moore during his lost years with the Carolina Panthers.
Could McLaurin do this season what Moore did last year? He’s not changing teams, but the overhauling of the offense creates a similar situation where McLaurin’s talent gets a chance to shine in a way it hasn’t in years past.
The best part is that you don’t have to pay top dollar to find out. McLaurin’s ADP is currently outside of the top 30 at the position, behind Moore’s teammate Keenan Allen and Jacksonville Jaguars WR Christian Kirk.
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Those are two talented options, but isn’t Allen just an older version of McLaurin with more target competition? Kirk might be in a better spot, but he, too, has more target competition and probably isn’t in the same prospect bin as Washington’s ace.
The fact that McLaurin has failed to reach fantasy expectations on his targets in three of the past four seasons is more an indictment of his lack of support than anything he’s doing wrong.
A stat like that can hint that McLaurin is still earning valuable targets; they just haven’t been connected on.
Daniels might not be a better passer than what McLaurin has seen through five NFL seasons, but we don’t know that’s the case, which is enough for me to invest and invest with regularity.
