Houston Texans WR Stefon Diggs had four banner years with the Buffalo Bills and now joins an offense that, behind C.J. Stroud, has a realistic shot to lead the league in scoring. However, the veteran saw his production trail off in the second half of last season.
Should fantasy football managers be weighing that heavier than the lengthy résumé of dominance, or was it simply a blip on the radar?
Stefon Diggs’ 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Total Fantasy Points: 230 (147 non-PPR)
- Receptions: 83
- Receiving Yards: 1,008
- Receiving TDs: 8
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 16. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Diggs This Year?
I entered this offseason thinking that the Diggs analysis would dictate league outcomes, for better or worse. That he would fall into the fringe-starter ADP range and either provide you with a massive boost by replicating his résumé with the Bills or prove to be little more than a wasted pick in a neighborhood that required you to pass on some younger options.
Wow, Stefon Diggs fights off Kohou and runs for a touchdown. Flag was an illegal contact call against Kohou. pic.twitter.com/jCcHqvOCkb
— Ian Valentino (@NFLDraftStudy) October 1, 2023
I was wrong.
Diggs isn’t being priced the way that he was 12 months ago, but he is certainly being given more bounce-back potential than I imagined, making him a high-risk, little-reward option in my books.
It’s one thing to overlook a minor bump in the road, but what we saw from December through the playoffs from Diggs (a stretch that coincidently started right after he celebrated his 30th birthday) was far more than a “minor bump.”
Weeks 1-12
- aDOT: 10.3
- Yards Per Route: 2.2
- PPG to Expectation: +12.2%
- FPPG: 19.0
Week 13 – Playoffs
- aDOT: 11.2
- Yards Per Route: 1.3
- PPG to Expectation: -30.3%
- FPPG: 9.1
That looks an awfully lot like a cliff. Even if you believe Diggs can start 2024 the way he started 2023, what’s to say that a similar fall-off this winter won’t happen?
Digging deeper into the data, he caught just two of 16 deep targets in that second stretch after pulling in 18 of 32 through 12 weeks. Diggs didn’t all of a sudden lose touch with Josh Allen downfield, making me believe that the physical regression was making itself known downfield, the area where fantasy upside is captured.
If Diggs’ profile is limited to shorter targets, he can still be productive. But can he pay you back at a third-round price in doing so?
I don’t think so. You’re picking Diggs over veterans who can win at a variety of levels (Amari Cooper and Tee Higgins) and some younger options with a higher ceiling (Zay Flowers and George Pickens).
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Heck, are we sure that Diggs’ profile is that much better than WR1s like Terry McLaurin and Jayden Reed, who play on offenses with a good amount of upside to explore?
The ability to earn targets at a high level on any team is in question, let alone on a Texans squad that has a handful of players who can produce alongside Stroud. Diggs specifically offers quite a bit of downside — without taking into consideration the age curve.
Since 2021, Percentage of WRs Who Were 30+ Years Old
- 10+ PPR PPG: 8.4%
- 12+ PPR PPG: 8.3%
- 14+ PPR PPG: 8.2%
A big part of that is because only 10.3% of receivers over that stretch who earned 90+ targets were 30+ years of age, but that speaks to the ability to earn opportunities trending in the wrong direction at this point in their careers.
Do you believe that Diggs is an outlier?
If so, go ahead and take him at the Round 3-4 turn and layer in some safety in the later rounds. I’ll pass. I don’t think his yards per route declining by 20.4% last season from 2022 was a mistake, and I’m not sure a change in scenery results in him punching back at Father Time.