The wide receiver position now dominates the early part of fantasy football drafts. Regardless of your draft strategy, though, it’s important to take players in the later rounds that have the potential to smash their ADP. Here are four of my favorite WR sleepers for this season.
Wide Receiver Fantasy Football Sleepers
The term “sleeper” stems from a time when there were actually players drafted that many fantasy managers hadn’t heard of. In the information era (now), every manager in your league knows who every player is.
Every player listed below is someone you’ve heard of. So, if your first thought is, “he’s not a sleeper,” that may technically be true. Think of these sleepers more as players going lower than I think they should.
With that in mind, let’s get to the WR sleepers.
Amari Cooper, Cleveland Browns (ADP: WR29)
How is Amari Cooper a sleeper in the year 2024? He inexplicably has a WR29 ADP, that’s how.
In 2017, an anomalously down year, Cooper finished as the WR31. That is the only season in which he has ever been worse than WR29. He’s averaged between 13.3 and 15.4 fantasy points per game every other season of his career.
Cooper averaged a career-best 17.4 yards per reception last year. His 14.1 aDOT (average depth of target) was the highest of his career. The same goes for his 2.35 yards per route run and 9.8 yards per target. All of those metrics ranked inside the top 15.
If you’re concerned about Deshaun Watson, don’t be. Well, you should be concerned if you plan to draft Watson — don’t do that. Just know he wasn’t a problem for Cooper last season, as Cooper averaged 15.4 fantasy points per game (ppg) in six games with Watson and the exact same figure in nine games without him.
The main knock on Cooper is he doesn’t have WR1 upside. I agree with that. But how many WR3s have WR1 upside? Cooper has a high-WR2 upside, which is more than fine for a guy this cheap. Cooper is being drafted at his floor.
Keenan Allen, Chicago Bears (ADP: WR33)
At 32 years old, there’s always the risk that this is the year Keenan Allen becomes completely cooked. From a pure age perspective, it wouldn’t be surprising. From a performance perspective, it would be genuinely shocking. Not only has Allen not shown any signs of decline, he’s actually as good as he’s ever been.
Allen averaged 21.5 fantasy ppg last season, the highest mark of his career. Sure, the volume was massive, with Allen commanding a 32% target share, but it’s not as if he didn’t deserve it.
Keenan Allen posted the highest open score of any WR in 2023.
His production vs. man coverage has held steady, and if we zoom out, his overall YPRR rate has actually increased from 2021 => 2022 => 2023. pic.twitter.com/DSBOSafdcq
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) June 12, 2024
Now, for the first time in his career, Allen is not the clear WR1. That’s DJ Moore. But are we really expecting rookie Rome Odunze to force Allen into a three-receiver-set-only role? I highly doubt it.
Allen’s target share is about to come crashing down … but so has his ADP. Last year’s overall WR3 is going 30 spots later than where he finished.
Asking a rookie QB in Caleb Williams to sustain two top-36 receivers is admittedly a lot. C.J. Stroud is the only rookie QB to ever do it. But Williams is one of the best QB prospects in the past decade. He’s certainly capable.
Given how late Allen is going in drafts, there’s almost no risk. A top-12 upside is probably a stretch, but Allen certainly has a top-24 upside. At worst, you should get what you pay for.
DeAndre Hopkins, Tennessee Titans (ADP: WR41)
Sleepers are supposed to be young players, right? What am I doing with all these olds? I guess this is the year of the old WR.
On the surface, DeAndre Hopkins clearly declined last year. His 13.2 fantasy ppg was a career low. However, a deeper dive shows it had nothing to do with his lack of ability. Hopkins was winning his routes and getting open against man coverage. He averaged 2.16 yards per route run, 18th in the league, despite being among the league leaders in uncatchable targets.
A big part of Hopkins’ depressed ADP is the added target competition. The Tennessee Titans signed Calvin Ridley, Tyler Boyd, and Tony Pollard, all of whom will command targets. But Ridley wasn’t exactly effective last season. Boyd is a slot man potentially entering a journeyman era. And Pollard is still a running back. Hopkins is the best WR on this team.
MORE: 5 Wide Receivers To Avoid At Cost
Perhaps just as important is the imminent shift in offensive philosophy. Under Mike Vrabel, in the Derrick Henry era, the Titans were one of the most run-heavy teams in the league. Now, Brian Callahan has taken over. His Cincinnati Bengals (he was the OC last year) threw the ball 63% of the time in a neutral game script. Will Levis is a gunslinger. You do the math here.
Even with a reduced target share, Hopkins still projects to lead the Titans in volume. The overall increase in pass attempts should mostly offset the target competition. Much like the previous two names on this list (and the next one), Hopkins is being drafted at his floor.
Diontae Johnson, Carolina Panthers (ADP: WR44)
I usually limit these lists to three, but it didn’t feel right leaving anyone out, especially not Diontae Johnson. Perhaps the most underappreciated WR in the league, all Johnson does every year is get open.
Per ESPN Analytics: since 2021, new Panthers WR Diontae Johnson ranks first in the league in “Open Score”, measuring a WR’s “likelihood to complete a catch, conditional on if he were targeted.”
🔗 https://t.co/Jbnb5siweb pic.twitter.com/yi5YTI37FY
— John Ellis (@1PantherPlace) June 19, 2024
In another world, we may be talking about Johnson as one of the best WRs in the league. He’s certainly one of the best route runners in recent history. Unfortunately, outside of 2021, the production has never matched the talent.
We just saw Adam Thielen post elite WR1 numbers for half a season before falling off, likely because he was 33 years old. Johnson now steps into the unquestioned WR1 role for the Panthers. There’s a very real chance he sees a 30% target share.
The Panthers’ new head coach Dave Canales was a big part of Baker Mayfield’s revival last season. There’s reason to believe he can help propel Bryce Young to a new level. As the clear WR1, Johnson would be along for the ride.
Johnson is being drafted at his floor, which is a common theme among the four names on this list. He has a WR2 upside at a WR4 price — the exact type of sleeper fantasy managers are looking for.