Denver Broncos running back Javonte Williams struggled last season in his first year back after destroying his knee. Now fully healthy, can the once promising talent make the leap many fantasy football managers were expecting before his sophomore year ended prematurely? What is Williams’ projection?
Javonte Williams’ 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Fantasy points per game: 12.3
- Rushing Yards: 758
- Rush TDs: 5.4
- Receptions: 58
- Receiving Yards: 316
- Receiving TDs: 1.8
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 14. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Williams This Year?
Williams is probably not going to finish near his RB33 ADP this season. That price is based on a number of factors that combine the talent he flashed as a rookie with the disappointment that was his sophomore season.
What happened last season? Williams averaged 4.4 yards per carry and 5.0 yards per touch as a rookie. He was top 10 in evaded tackles per touch rate and yards created per touch.
As a sophomore, Williams was right there at 4.3 yards per carry before tearing multiple ligaments in his knee in his fourth game.
Upon returning quicker than expected in his third season, Williams was not the same player. He averaged 3.6 yards per carry and was 41st in evaded tackles per touch and 36th in yards created per touch. If not for Williams’ ability to command a 13% target share, he would’ve finished even worse than RB31 at 11.2 fantasy points per game.
Head coach Sean Payton was reluctant to push all his chips in on Williams last season. Williams played just 50% of the snaps last year. His opportunity share was 58.3%, 23rd in the league. He split work with Jaleel McLaughlin and Samaje Perine. Will something similar happen again this season?
Given McLaughlin’s performance and the team’s decision to draft a power back in Audric Estime, I think it will. I have Williams projected for just a 48% opportunity share.
Fortunately, I also think the Broncos will run a lot. As a result, my projections have Williams at 963 rushing yards, 336 receiving yards, and 8.3 total touchdowns.
Williams’ target share should once again bolster his fantasy value. Payton has a lengthy history of throwing to his running backs. While a lot of that came with Drew Brees at quarterback and guys like Darren Sproles and Alvin Kamara at running back, Williams didn’t exactly show us something different in his first year running the Broncos.
The Broncos don’t have a single reliable WR behind Courtland Sutton. It’s not a stretch to project Williams for a 13% target share, as I have. It also isn’t outrageous to think he can top that.
There are reasons for fantasy managers to be concerned. Williams’ efficiency was bad last season. It could’ve been the injury. It also could be because he’s not nearly as good as some may have thought after his rookie season.
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The Broncos could utilize McLaughlin, who impressed on limited touches last season. At the very least, if McLaughlin is playing on passing downs, that could mean my projection for Williams’ target share is too high.
Ultimately, I ranked Williams at RB32, which is right around consensus. I don’t see a ton of upside for him playing with Bo Nix, a rookie mobile QB, but I do see a world where he finishes as a low RB2, which would be a nice return on investment at his price.
