In 2023, the Jacksonville Jaguars and Trevor Lawrence started strong but collapsed in the second half of the season, ultimately missing the playoffs. Now, it’s a new season and a new year. Yet, after the disappointing season, Lawrence is now ranked as PFN’s 14th-highest-ranked quarterback.
Trevor Lawrence Ranked 14th-Best Quarterback in PFN’s NFL Top 100
In PFN’s NFL Top 100 list, voted on by the staff, Lawrence came in at No. 92 overall and No. 14 in terms of quarterbacks. He was the Jaguars’ second-highest-rated player, only behind Joshua Hines-Allen, who came in at No. 54.
The quarterbacks listed ahead of Lawrence are Patrick Mahomes (1), Lamar Jackson (3), Josh Allen (11), Joe Burrow (12), Dak Prescott (32), C.J. Stroud (35), Jalen Hurts (43), Justin Herbert (51), Matthew Stafford (52), Brock Purdy (55), Jordan Love (58), Tua Tagovailoa (66), and Aaron Rodgers (80).
After a struggle-filled rookie season, Lawrence had a breakout season in 2022, making the Pro Bowl. To start, he led the Jaguars to the playoffs and a 27-point comeback in the Wild Card round to defeat the Los Angeles Chargers, 31-30. For the season, Lawrence had a 66.3% completion percentage and threw for 4,113 yards, 25 touchdowns, and eight interceptions, all career bests.
After his sophomore breakout, many expected Lawrence to thrust himself into top-10 and top-five conversations over the course of the 2023 season. That didn’t happen, however, as his production took a hit with a 65.6% completion percentage. He also threw for 4,016 yards, 21 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions.
Despite the stats, an argument could be made that Lawrence is underrated. The first reason is injuries, which plagued him from Week 13 until the season’s end.
That week, against the Cincinnati Bengals, when the Jaguars were 8-3 and held the AFC’s top seed, Lawrence suffered a high ankle sprain. Prior to his injury, he had thrown 22 of 29 for 258 yards and two touchdowns, also adding a rushing score.
Following the injury, Lawrence went on to suffer a concussion against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 15 and a shoulder sprain against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers a week later.
The Jaguars went 1-6 to finish the season, and Lawrence’s production and performance significantly dipped.
How much did Trevor Lawrence's ankle injury affect his play late in the 2023 season? #Jaguars
I take a look at the Data! 📊 pic.twitter.com/TrKiMFR86i
— Daniel Griffis (@DanDGriffis) April 15, 2024
Another factor was Lawrence’s supporting cast, which saw up-and-down performances from Calvin Ridley and injuries suffered by both Christian Kirk and Zay Jones (with Jones struggling when healthy as well).
According to Dan Pizzuta of The 33rd Team, Lawrence had the most EPA (expected points added) lost due to drops of any quarterback in the NFL. To that point, if you add the touchdowns and yardage to Lawrence’s stats that were lost as a result of the drops, his numbers would be much better than they appear at first glance.
Trevor Lawrence near miss touchdowns pic.twitter.com/3tl8vK3VT5
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) January 9, 2024
Still, Lawrence isn’t perfect, either. While he can’t control dropped passes and injuries, his fumbles are an issue that is completely on him.
In just three seasons, Lawrence has 33 fumbles, averaging 11 per season (12 in both 2022 and 2023). If he wants to improve his perception, he’ll have to improve his ball handling immediately.
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In addition to improving fumbles, Lawrence will need to continue doing what he’s done in years past — throw accurate passes downfield.
The Jaguars lost Ridley to free agency and cut Jones, meaning Lawrence would only return a healthy Kirk as a starting receiver. However, Jacksonville brought in two deep threats in Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis, two guys who can let Lawrence do what he does best: throw deep.
Finally, another way Lawrence can improve his perception is to win the AFC South. While wins are not a quarterback stat, winning will always improve perception.
If the Jaguars can take down the likes of the Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, and Tennessee Titans to win the division as they did in 2022, Lawrence’s perception should naturally go up, especially if he plays the key role it would take for them to do that in the first place.