Every fantasy football league is unique.
That’s a fact, not an opinion. Due to human nature, your specific league will look different than mine, and that’s OK. That, however, doesn’t mean you shouldn’t prepare yourself for the most likely happenings.
Below is a recent PPR mock draft, where we take into consideration what we currently know to project how the first 72 picks will play out!
2024 12-Team Redraft Mock Draft | PPR
1.01) Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers
The concerns about Christian McCaffrey after a few injury-riddled seasons have evaporated thanks to the All-Pro piling up 3,233 yards and 31 touchdowns in his 27 regular season games with the Niners.
CMC had four games last season with at least 100 rushing yards and five receptions. That number sounds impressive without any context, but what if I told you that no other player has had four such games over the past two seasons?
The trick in owning the first-overall pick isn’t necessarily who you use it on but rather how you build a roster around the uniquely gifted McCaffrey. I like how this manager goes about doing it, but there is certainly a strong argument to be made for a power-RB strategy where you look to dominate the position and opt to rely on depth at receiver.
1.02) CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys
Outside of increasing his reception, target, yardage, and touchdown count in each season of his NFL career, there really isn’t much to like in CeeDee Lamb. Sarcasm aside, I like Jake Ferguson as much as the next person, and Brandin Cooks is going to continue to get looks, but it’s no mistake that Lamb finished last season with 33 more catches than any of his teammates had targets.
READ MORE: Super Bowl Winner: Trends To Narrow Down the Field
The ‘Boys will again be very competitive in the ever-changing landscape of the NFC, and that could put their best player in a position to peak at the perfect time.
Fantasy Playoffs Schedule:
- Week 14 vs. Bengals
- Week 15 at Panthers
- Week 16 vs. Buccaneers
- Week 17 at Eagles
1.03) Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins
I’m not saying that Tyreek Hill was right when he claimed that Tua Tagovailoa is the most accurate QB he has ever played with, but who am I to argue with the results?
- 2020-21 (KC): 67.3% catch rate, 8.6 yards per target
- 2022-23 (MIA): 69.8% catch rate, 10.3 yards per target
With Hill, you start your roster off with a game-breaker who doesn’t miss time (one missed game over the past three seasons) and owns the type of usage that is borderline impossible to find (10+ targets or a catch of 65+ yards in 13 different games last season).
Is his floor maybe a tick below that of Lamb due to a stronger secondary option and the possibility that Miami dominates on the ground in a given game? I’d say yes, but that doesn’t mean you let him fall out of the first half of the first round in any non-Superflex format.
1.04) Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
It can be sacrilege to toss around the “Megatron” name, but I’m not sure it’s a leap. Calvin Johnson had an obvious connection with Matthew Stafford, and in their third season together, Johnson scored a career-high 16 times and added 1,681 receiving yards for good measure.
That touchdown rate may seem optimistic, but if we assign Ja’Marr Chase our projected catch total (117) and carry over his scoring rate from his first two seasons, we land on 15.3 scores. The potential for him to be the top-scoring receiver in the sport is certainly there, and a special campaign isn’t at all out of the question.
The receivers I want in the first round offer an elite ceiling without the concern of anything resembling a drought, boxes that Cincinnati’s WR1 checks without much worry.
1.05) Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons
Bijan Robinson managed to put up 1,463 total yards and eight scores as a rookie despite less-than-optimal usage. He was a fantasy asset with just two carries inside of the five-yard line, instead having to rely on his elite athleticism to net splash plays (gain of 20+ yards in nine different games in an ultra-conservative effort).
If what we saw last season was a floor season for Robinson, it’s scary to think what might be in store this season. This is the end of the tier of players that have, in my opinion, a reasonable chance to lead all Flex players in PPR fantasy points.
1.06) Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions
In two short seasons, Amon-Ra St. Brown went from “Hey, that was a nice run” to “It sure would be nice to be able to stop him from getting whatever he wants.” The Lions re-signed Jared Goff this offseason, locking in a connection that has been nothing short of special.
The sheer volume of looks is a little less overwhelming in a non-PPR setting, but what we saw down the stretch of last season (a touchdown in four straight games) provides me with confidence that we’ve yet to see the best out of St. Brown.
He will continue to thrive at moving the chains, though labeling him as a one-trick pony is for the misinformed. He nearly doubled his career touchdown total in 2023, and posting a second straight campaign with double-digit end-zone dances wouldn’t shock me in the least.
1.07) Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets
Breece Hall is Robinson with slightly more risk. Both are as gifted as it gets at the position and should see their respective offenses improve from what they put on the field in 2023 due to a change under center. Robinson gets the luxury of a stable QB while Hall gets a 40-year-old off of a major injury.
Of course, there’s no shortage of upside that comes in Hall’s situation with Aaron Rodgers, but I want to mitigate risk as best I can inside the first few rounds — that is enough to lower him to the bottom of my Tier 1 at the position.
That’s simply splitting hairs. Hall nearly totaled 1,600 yards last season in an offense that was one-dimensional and predictable. His ceiling is as high as anyone’s at the position, but his path to achieving that is just a touch cloudier.
1.08) Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings
The first seven picks, in my opinion, are Tier 1; if asked, the seventh slot is where I want to sit in drafts for that exact reason. Jefferson isn’t a bad consolation prize, but there is a clear risk in a redraft format that comes with Sam Darnold/J.J. McCarthy under center.
Jefferson’s résumé through four seasons is the best we’ve seen, giving him the potential to overcome limited upside under center. Heck, we just saw Chase and Davante Adams reel in 100+ balls from suboptimal QBs.
I remain unsold on the target competition for Jefferson. That elevates his floor to where it needs to be for a first-round pick. The upside is the sticking point and why he is outside of my top tier.
1.09) A.J. Brown, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
Much like Hill, A.J. Brown has thrived in his two seasons post-trade and is showing no signs of slowing up. He has the comfort of his franchise QB being under center and has proven to us, now over a 34-game sample, that playing alongside another talented receiver in DeVonta Smith is not an issue.
I think we can pencil in Brown for 1,400-ish yards and 8-10 touchdowns this year, raw numbers that could land him higher than this in the end-of-season rankings. It is important to note, however, that not all monster seasons are created equal.
Brown ended last season on a six-game scoring drought and hasn’t caught a 40-yard pass since mid-October. The addition of Saquon Barkley is unlikely to help a player in Brown who can exploit matchups at the highest level when featured but can also take a back seat when that’s not the case.
The good weeks will outnumber the poor ones, but the threat of a down week coming at the wrong time has me passing on him any earlier than this and searching for more weekly stability as I build out a roster with him as the centerpiece.
1.10) Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets
Garrett Wilson was the 10th pick in the 2022 NFL Draft; despite having his breakout moment in the pros, that is right where I am comfortable taking him this season. If we remove the first game of last year due to it being a chaotic situation with the New York Jets’ season being derailed before it started, Wilson averaged 10.5 targets per game during the fantasy season.
That number compares with other star WRs on this list, but I view it as slightly more impressive because of the limitations he had under center. Bad quarterbacks struggle to read defenses and tend to throw the ball away if things don’t open up right away.
The fact that the Trevor Siemian/Zach Wilson duo, for a team that wanted to run the ball and play defense, still found a way to throw over 10 passes a game in the zip code of Wilson speaks to his ability to present a window — a wide window, at that.
If he does that for Rodgers, and if Rodgers is even 80% of the quarterback he was in 2021, this draft slot might be 7-9 spots too low. We have to take into account the risk that comes with betting on Rodgers’ health, but the upside is impossible to deny.
1.11) Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Detroit Lions
If you’re buying stock in an offense heading into 2024, the Detroit Lions are on the shortlist, and leading that charge is their explosive second-year tailback. Despite never truly being unleashed as a rookie (just two games with over 15 carries), Jahmyr Gibbs found paydirt 11 times last season and quickly became a player to fear in space.
With nothing of substance changing in Detroit, why would we not expect growth? Yes, the presence of David Montgomery (career-high 13 rushing TDs last season) caps his ceiling in a way that makes him competing for the fantasy crown at the position highly unlikely, but that doesn’t mean he can’t lead your backfield and do it at a high level.
Everything in Gibbs’ profile suggests that efficiency will be a strength, thus making any extension of his role highly valuable and vaulting him into the first-round conversation.
Rookies to see 70+ targets and 10+ rushing TDs:
- Gibbs (2023)
- Saquon Barkley (2018)
- LaDainian Tomlinson (2001)
- Edgerrin James (1999)
- Marshall Faulk (1994)
1.12) Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts
Taylor has missed 13 games over the past two seasons with both his efficiency and scoring rates on the ground dropping quite a bit.
- 2020-21: 5.28 yards per carry with a TD once every 19.4 carries
- 2022-23: 4.44 yards per carry with a TD once every 32.8 carries
But does that really mean much? Taylor missed the first month of last season, and thus a fully healthy version of him has never been on the field with Anthony Richardson.
It was a small sample, of course, and Richardson missed portions of the four games he did appear in, but Zack Moss averaged 129.3 yards and scored four times in those four Richardson starts. Nothing against Moss — I think he’s an interesting option for the Bengals this season — but what he brings to the table is nothing like that of Taylor.
I don’t love spending a lot of draft capital on running backs as it is, let alone one that has missed significant time in consecutive seasons, but a player that has elite production on his résumé and will be featured in an offense whose arrow is pointing straight up is a profile I can be sold on.
Picking at the turn can be tricky, but doubling down at the shallow running back position and banking on the depth at pass catcher is certainly a strategy I’m entertaining.
2.01) Saquon Barkley, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
Not all stats are created equal. The fact that Saquon Barkley was able to average 88.7 scrimmage yards last season and has reached paydirt 10+ times in consecutive years might be as impressive as any McCaffrey stat I can give you when you adjust for his environment.
In 2023, the New York Giants were the third-worst scoring offense in the league, and it was every bit as bad as that ranking suggests. The Philadelphia Eagles, on the other hand, were the seventh-highest-scoring group and are about as stable on that side of the ball as it gets.
Saquon Barkley is unstoppable 🤯 pic.twitter.com/kO6kWbof6e
— The Swoop Scoops (@TheSwoopScoops) July 9, 2024
This is a touch ahead of ADP, but this manager doesn’t pick for another 2-3 business days, so decisions must be made. You’ll hear concerns about the volume, managers fretting over Hurts’ workload, and the presence of the always-involved-but-never-featured Kenneth Gainwell.
Hogwash.
Nine times last season did the Birds give a single back 18+ touches in a contest. If they simply sustain that number this season, Barkley figures to give fantasy managers exactly what they are paying for at this point in the draft.
What if they extend him further? What if they give him a McCaffrey-like role that some summer reports have suggested?
2.02) Puka Nacua, WR, Los Angeles Rams
I tend to be on the skeptical side when it comes to this super sophomore after he set the NFL record for receiving yards by a rookie in 2023 (1,486). He’s a talented player, and this is where I expect him to go in drafts, but are we penciling him in as the clear alpha target earner in this offense just a little too fast?
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From Weeks 8-18 last season, 27 players had more instances in which they cleared 50 receiving yards than Puka Nacua (a list that includes Courtland Sutton and Darius Slayton).
That’s not to say that he is a bust or that you are setting your team up for failure by making this selection, I’d just encourage you to take into consideration the risk and the depth of talent at the position before blindly clicking on fantasy’s MVP from a year ago inside the top 15.
2.03) Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Arizona Cardinals
To some degree, drafting Marvin Harrison Jr. is going to be a leap of faith no matter when it happens. His next NFL rep will be his first, obviously, and the Cardinals haven’t had a 1,000-yard pass catcher in three straight seasons. We think that this kid’s profile is bulletproof, and it might very well be, but there is also an implied risk you’re taking on at the quarterback position.
And I’m OK with that.
Kyler Murray has been banged up in consecutive seasons and saw his WR1 miss six games in 2021. In 2020, the last time a healthy Murray had his top receiver for the entire season, DeAndre Hopkins was a top-three performer in targets, catches, and yards, while leading the position in first downs.
Three of the top four all-time receiving yardage seasons by a rookie receiver have come in the past four years, and while projecting Harrison for the 1,400+ yards that those stars (Nacua, Chase, and Jefferson) produced is ambitious, he’s ready to earn targets at a high rate from Day 1. He’s doing so with a QB who has at least shown the ability, even if it was four seasons ago, to funnel looks to an elite talent.
2.04) Drake London, WR, Atlanta Falcons
Do we need to grade on a curve? Yes, Drake London only has six touchdowns on his 33-game résumé, but those came in the Arthur Smith era. I’m still working on the math as to what six scores under Smith equates to in an offense run by a reasonably creative mind, but the fact of the matter is that betting on the talent of a former first-round pick in an offense that is looking to open up isn’t a bad process.
Some will say that his projected growth could be stunted by the Atlanta Falcons bringing in a pair of receivers (Darnell Mooney and Rondale Moore) this offseason. I take the other side of that coin — their presence tells me that Atlanta is interested in becoming viable through the air, but neither of them has proven themselves as consistent target earners at the pro level.
London is as good of a bet to lead a receiver room in targets as any, and that makes him a fine pick in a range that carries plenty of talented WRs with a flaw or two in their profile.
2.05) Davante Adams, WR, Las Vegas Raiders
Davante Adams is entering his age-31 season, but you wouldn’t know it based on the numbers he has produced for the Las Vegas Raiders. In two years with the Silver and Black, he’s piled up 203 catches for 2,660 yards, and 22 scores without missing a single game.
There’s an inherent risk that comes with betting on Vegas’ QB situation (11.1 yards per catch last season was the fewest by Adams since becoming a regular), but it takes a truly rare talent to earn over 10 looks per game for six straight seasons.
The upside isn’t what it once was — Adams failed to haul in a pass of 25+ yards in 13 of 17 games last season — and the floor will be annoying, but the year-end numbers should be enough to justify spending a second-round pick on this future Hall of Famer.
2.06) Nico Collins, WR, Houston Texans
Here, I present to you the high-end receiver of whom I anticipate having the most shares in redraft formats this season. Are you coming along for the ride?
I’m willing to label him as the alpha target earner in this offense without much question. Stefon Diggs is talented but on the back end of his career, and Tank Dell profiles as more of a specialty option than a true opportunity earner in my eyes.
READ MORE: Fantasy Football WR Busts To Avoid In 2024
Collins exploded last season with C.J. Stroud (80 catches on 109 targets) after an inefficient start to his career (70 catches on 126 targets through two seasons) and was a big play waiting to happen (16.2 yards per catch with eight touchdowns).
I wouldn’t dare to say that there was once a supersized WR1 who spent his career with the Detroit Lions that could provide a blueprint for a Collins breakout, but:
Calvin Johnson’s second season with a healthy Matthew Stafford:
- 96 catches
- 1,681 yards
- 16 touchdowns
If you remove a tough four-game stretch from Collins last season and extend the remaining numbers across 17 games:
- 102 catches
- 1,691 yards
- 11 touchdowns
A little touchdown luck and … I’m just sayin’.
2.07) De’Von Achane, RB, Miami Dolphins
De’Von Achane’s profile is easy, but the projection is the toughest on the board. On one hand, the explosion he showed during his rookie season is what we drool over. On the other, few in NFL history have ever been able to sustain success at anywhere near that level for an extended period.
Achane put 997 yards and 11 scores on the board as a rookie, numbers that I think he could repeat this season, as natural regression should be washed away by more opportunities. I have no problem with that assumption … my issue is with managers thinking he is a fringe first-round pick because they want to keep his per-touch production where it is while also adding 4-7 chances per game.
The fact of the matter is that this team is potent through the air and could throw even more in 2024. They finished 2023 in the middle third of the league in pass rate over expectation and still managed to roster the leader in passing yards.
If we tick their passing-rate-over-expectation (PROE) number up a bit and assume that rookie Jaylen Wright, at the very least, absorbs any usage that is taken off the plate of 32-year-old Raheem Mostert (career-high 234 touches in 2023), Achane isn’t going to be the bellcow some are hoping him to be.
He’s a star — I’m just not overextending on him this season after a rookie campaign that set the efficiency bar far higher than I’m willing to accept as the norm (to a degree, he’s the running back version of Nacua for me).
2.08) Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints
Some top-shelf prospects explode onto the scene while others take more time, improving in little ways that, eventually, yield big results. Olave was the 11th pick in 2022 and has posted consecutive 1,000-yard seasons to open his career, yet no one seems excited about him.
He’s proven the ability to earn targets at the professional level since Day 1 (7.9 targets per game in 2022) and improved upon that rate last season (8.6) despite limitations at QB.
Sadly, the concerns at quarterback remain. I have no questions about the talent profile, and that makes him a target of mine should he fall much later than this — betting on a player whose talent nor role is in question isn’t a bad way to build a roster.
2.09) Derrick Henry, RB, Baltimore Ravens
A Baltimore Ravens RB who lacks versatility but scores touchdowns in bunches.
Didn’t we just see how this story played out in a Todd Monken offense last season? Gus Edwards pushed across 13 scores for Baltimore a season ago, and now the top-shelf version of Edwards is in town to help get the Ravens over the hump.
No matter how you spin his projection, the result is going to be double-digit scores. Baltimore ranked 11th in PROE a season ago, a big difference from the environment that Henry is leaving (TEN: 28th). A dip in volume could certainly occur, but I expect it to be offset by the increase in the value of each possession.
Could Monken get creative and get Henry two catches per game? It’s within the range of outcomes, but it’s not a necessity for him to return a profit on a late second-round selection, even in a PPR format.
2.10) Brandon Aiyuk, WR, San Francisco 49ers
I’m taking a stance on Collins being the unquestioned top target in Houston, and the same is true for Brandon Aiyuk in San Francisco. Deebo Samuel is a nice player and one who is very important to the 49ers’ success, but his connection through the air with Brock Purdy simply doesn’t hold a candle to Aiyuk’s.
The talent and opportunity outweigh my concerns, and that is why he lands in the second round here, but we do need to take into consideration the downside. Purdy is coming off of a top-10 season all-time in terms of efficiency, making regression a near certainty. There’s also a non-zero chance that Aiyuk gets moved at some point; while I think he is likely the WR1 wherever he goes, developing chemistry in a new situation on the fly isn’t easy.
If there was no discontent in San Fran, I’d be comfortable drafting Aiyuk a few spots higher after a season where he saw his yards per catch increase by 34.6% from his career average. Even as the situation is, I have a hard time believing that you’ll be looking back at your draft board in five months and regretting picking the 49ers’ WR1 in this neighborhood.
2.11) Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
All the risks we worried about entering last season remain just hold less water. We weren’t sure that Baker Mayfield would amplify what Mike Evans does well, and we were dead wrong. All he did was clear 1,000 receiving yards for a 10th straight season and find the end zone at least a dozen times for the third time in four years.
You know what you’re getting in terms of an annual stat line, but you do need to be aware of what you’re getting weekly. In 2023 …
- Games under 45 yards: Five
- Games north of 140 yards: Three
I don’t think we see that part of his game vanish this season, so that needs to be factored in. If you draft for floor early and upside late like I generally do, Evans probably isn’t a player that fits your construction around the 2-3 turn.
2.12) Jaylen Waddle, WR, Miami Dolphins
Jaylen Waddle is a version of Olave — I think his talent is greater than his production up to this point. He quietly has three straight 1,000-yard seasons and is averaging over 14 yards per grab since Hill came to South Beach, numbers that might surprise you given the narrative around him.
What I’m encouraged by is the catch rate. The impact of adjusting to what it is that Hill does well makes me think that a big season is coming for Waddle in short order. In his first season with Cheetah, Waddle caught 64.1% of his passes, a number that spiked to 69.2% a season ago.
We know the upside that he carries if Hill misses time; I think we begin to see more of it this season when both are on the field. That makes him a threat to return strong profits based on his industry ADP.
2024 12-Team PPR Redraft Mock Draft Rounds 3-6
3.01) DeVonta Smith, WR, PHI
3.02) Kyren Williams, RB, LAR
3.03) Sam LaPorta, TE, DET
3.04) Deebo Samuel, WR, SF
3.05) Cooper Kupp, WR, LAR
3.06) DK Metcalf, WR, SEA
3.07) Michael Pittman Jr., WR, IND
3.08) Malik Nabers, WR, NYG
3.09) Jalen Hurts, QB, PHI
3.10) Travis Kelce, TE, KC
3.11) Stefon Diggs, WR, HOU
3.12) DJ Moore, WR, CHI
4.01) Tee Higgins, WR, CIN
4.02) Josh Allen, QB, BUF
4.03) Patrick Mahomes, QB, KC
4.04) Travis Etienne, RB, JAX
4.05) Isiah Pacheco, RB, KC
4.06) Amari Cooper, WR, CLE
4.07) Josh Jacobs, RB, GB
4.08) George Pickens, WR, PIT
4.09) Lamar Jackson, QB, BAL
4.10) James Cook, RB, BUF
4.11) Trey McBride, TE, ARI
4.12) C.J. Stroud, QB, HOU
5.01) Dalton Kincaid, TE, BUF
5.02) Anthony Richardson, QB, IND
5.03) Alvin Kamara, RB, NO
5.04) Mark Andrews, TE, BAL
5.05) Joe Mixon, RB, HOU
5.06) Dak Prescott, QB, DAL
5.07) Evan Engram, TE, JAX
5.08) Rachaad White, RB, TB
5.09) Zay Flowers, WR, BAL
5.10) Kenneth Walker III, RB, SEA
5.11) Christian Kirk, WR, JAX
5.12) Joe Burrow, QB, CIN
6.01) George Kittle, TE, SF
6.02) Kyle Pitts, TE, ATL
6.03) David Montgomery, RB, DET
6.04) Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, NE
6.05) Kyler Murray, QB, ARI
6.06) Aaron Jones, RB, MIN
6.07) Terry McLaurin, WR, WAS
6.08) Tank Dell, WR, HOU
6.09) Keenan Allen, WR, CHI
6.10) Jordan Love, QB, GB
6.11) Jayden Reed, WR, GB
6.12) D’Andre Swift, RB, CHI