Philadelphia Eagles WR DeVonta Smith has put together three productive seasons in his NFL career, but he’s left fantasy football managers wanting more. In the middle of last season, he had a stretch where he cleared 95 receiving yards in four of five games and also scored in four of five.
That’s great, but it came on the heels of a month-long stretch without a single score while checking in under 50 yards in four of those five games. The annual projection is pretty straightforward, but is this the season you should feel good about locking him in weekly?
DeVonta Smith’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- PPR Fantasy Points: 242 (156 non-PPR)
- Receptions: 87
- Receiving Yards: 1,144
- Receiving TDs: 6.9
Jalen Hurts' deep ball to Devonta Smith sets up a Dallas Goedert TD 😤
Eagles back in it‼️ pic.twitter.com/68KVBfaBJr
— ESPN (@espn) January 16, 2024
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 16. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Smith This Year?
How much different is Smith than Tee Higgins?
Career numbers:
- Higgins: 4.4 catches for 63.5 yards and 0.4 touchdowns
- Smith: 4.8 catches for 63.6 yards and 0.4 touchdowns
Both scored on 20% of their collegiate receptions, both play alongside an alpha WR1, and both are in an offense that has settled on its franchise signal caller.
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In theory, the situations are eerily similar. But are they? Higgins plays in an offense that relies more on the pass (consecutive top-two finishes in pass rate over expectation while the Eagles haven’t ranked better than 10th in either of those seasons) and lost their starting running back (Joe Mixon) instead of adding an All-Pro (Saquon Barkley).
Maybe you prefer Smith’s speed over Higgins’ size … but by upwards of a full round?
I don’t have anything against Smith. He’s hauled in 68.2% of his career targets and scored on nearly 8% of them while averaging 13.2 yards per catch. I think it’s just as unlikely that he provides a league-winning season as it is that he sinks your season. He’s a fine option that will produce viable numbers, I just don’t like where he sits in the hierarchy of the loaded receiver position.
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Last season, a career-low 4.9% of Smith’s receptions came in the red zone, a red flag when it comes to projecting growth in the touchdown department and something that I don’t see turning around this season.
While I’m a bit down on Smith at cost, I’d still prefer him to a pair of receivers going in a similar range. Stefon Diggs has an impressive résumé, but physical decline is certainly possible, as is the potential for him to rank third on his team in targets. Malik Nabers enters the NFL with as much pedigree as Smith, but the situation is just too prohibitive for me to consider him in this tier.
Looking over a #FantasyFootball mock draft with @DerekTateNFL https://t.co/cvU4XJVuVX pic.twitter.com/MfM5NDdpBm
— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN) June 12, 2024
Nabers is the best receiver the New York Giants have had during this stretch, but — likely due to the recent success of young receivers — his asking price is nearing what I view as his ceiling.
You can do better than Smith around the 4-5 turn. I personally prefer Cooper Kupp in this range, but even if you think this is the right spot for Smith in terms of the receiver rankings (fringe top 20), I find myself more interested in the elite onsie positions at this point.