Jahmyr Gibbs’ Fantasy Projections: Should You Draft Gibbs in Fantasy This Season?

Detroit Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs showcased his fantasy football prowess weekly during his rookie season, and his role figures to expand in 2024. With David Montgomery still on Detroit’s roster and a viable passing game, what sort of numbers can you expect from Gibbs in this unique situation?

Jahmyr Gibbs’ 2024 Fantasy Outlook

• PPR Fantasy Points: 343 (270 in non-PPR)
• Rushing Yards: 1,327
• Rushing TDs: 14
• Receptions: 73
• Receiving Yards: 444
• Receiving TDs: 2

These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 16. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.

Should You Draft Gibbs This Year?

How loaded is the top tier of fantasy assets this season? You can obtain the services of Gibbs and all of his potential with a pick at the end of the first round.

I completely understand wanting to bank on the shelf-life and stability that comes with the wide receiver position, but the risk of Gibbs seems to be as low as just about any running back.

JAHMYR GIBBS HAS ARRIVED 💥 pic.twitter.com/87cPaTgf4S

— Fantasy Life (@MBFantasyLife) October 31, 2023

Even with us projecting a 24.8% spike in carries per game, the workload still has room to grow. I have a hard time thinking Gibbs turns into a Christian McCaffrey-type of back in 2024, but maybe that’s a good thing.

Part of my hesitation in using a first-round pick on a running back is the wear and tear. The vast majority of RB touches are essentially car crashes, and the human body wasn’t built to withstand that for four straight months.

Gibbs, however, might be the best of both worlds.

That is, he can experience a nice jump in touches per game without assuming a role that consistently puts him in harm’s way. Montgomery is not as old as you think (turned 27 in June), but he does have over 1,300 touches on his NFL résumé. The Lions showed last season that he will handle the grunt work (nine of his 13 rushing scores came inside of the 5-yard line), though the red zone usage stats actually trend in Gibbs’ favor after he was worked into a regular role.

Does that cap some of Gibbs’ potential? Sure, but I’d argue that what it does for his ability to stay healthy far exceeds any touchdown fears you have, especially with your first pick.

I’d take the under on our rushing TD projection, though I don’t think it’s out of the question given that Gibbs saw eight of his 10 touchdowns on the ground last season come in the red zone. It’s an aggressive projection, but one that wouldn’t surprise me, given Detroit’s offense is projected to be one of the most potent in the sport.

Gibbs had a rushing score and at least four targets in all three of the Lions’ playoff games a season ago (not to mention a 15+ yard touch in each contest), displaying the type of versatility that reminds some of CMC.

Gibbs won’t come cheap, but his ADP might be a handful of picks higher next season. The ceiling/floor outlook is as appealing for Gibbs as it is for any of the running backs being taken ahead of him. And it’s not tough to like his profile over receivers like Justin Jefferson (new QB) or Puka Nacua (impact of a healthy Cooper Kupp to open the season in addition to the preseason setback).

Jason Katz’s Analysis of Gibbs’ Fantasy Value

• RB1 Potential: Jahmyr Gibbs delivered RB1 numbers in 2023 despite being undersized and part of a timeshare. His explosive playmaking ability and efficiency make him one of the most exciting young running backs in the NFL, but his volume remains a concern.
• 2024 Outlook: While Gibbs has the potential to take on a larger role, it’s hard to justify ranking him ahead of proven workhorses like Bijan Robinson and Breece Hall. Gibbs’ value lies in his efficiency rather than sheer volume, which could limit his ceiling compared to other top RBs.
• ADP Comparison: Gibbs is currently being drafted as the RB6, 12th overall. This places him behind Saquon Barkley and Jonathan Taylor, both of whom are likely to see more touches. However, Gibbs’ talent and explosiveness make him an appealing pick in the back half of Round 1, especially if you’re targeting a high-upside RB.
• Efficiency Over Volume: In 2023, Gibbs averaged 5.4 yards per touch and had the second-highest rate of carries going for 15+ yards in the NFL. While he may not be built for a 350-touch workload, Gibbs can still produce elite numbers with 230-250 touches.
• Final Verdict: Gibbs’ current ADP reflects his potential and efficiency rather than volume. If you’re looking for a running back with explosive upside, Gibbs is worth considering at his ADP. While he may not offer the same workload as other top RBs, his ability to make the most of his touches makes him a valuable asset in fantasy football.

PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for Jahmyr Gibbs

Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis. 

5) Breece Hall, RB | New York Jets
6) Ja’Marr Chase, WR | Cincinnati Bengals
7) Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR | Detroit Lions
8) Justin Jefferson, WR | Minnesota Vikings
9) A.J. Brown, WR | Philadelphia Eagles
10) Jahmyr Gibbs, RB | Detroit Lions
11) Garrett Wilson, WR | New York Jets
12) Jonathan Taylor, RB | Indianapolis Colts
13) Saquon Barkley, RB | Philadelphia Eagles
14) Puka Nacua, WR | Los Angeles Rams
15) Kyren Williams, RB | Los Angeles Rams