Cincinnati Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase has been one of fantasy football‘s best players since entering the NFL. A healthy Joe Burrow gives him as much potential as anyone at the position in 2024.
Should you feel comfortable selecting Chase in the first half of the first round?
Ja’Marr Chase’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- PPR Fantasy Points: 353 (236 non-PPR)
- Receptions: 117
- Receiving Yards: 1,597
- Receiving TDs: 13
Throwback to when Ja'Marr Chase scored 52.2 fantasy points in Week 5 last year 😳
The highest single week scoring output of any player last season 🔥 pic.twitter.com/XqtsfSl827
— NFL Fantasy Football (@NFLFantasy) July 1, 2024
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 16. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Chase This Year?
Chase indeed ran out of gas down the stretch last season (14 catches for 153 yards with zero touchdowns over the final month), but I encourage you to look past that.
After consecutive impressive seasons with Burrow feeding him fantasy points left and right (13 TDs in 2021 and 7.3 catches per game in 2022), Chase’s per-catch production took a slight step back with below-average play under center.
PPR points per catch
- 2021: 2.73
- 2022: 1.78
- 2023: 1.64
That sub-8% dip from 2022 to 2023 is negligible when you consider the circumstances. And that number from his rookie season is exactly why Chase is viewed as a first-round pick across the board this summer — that potential is certainly still in his profile.
Our projections forecast growth, hoping that Chase can marry his increase in volume over the past two seasons (40% more receptions in those seasons than in his rookie campaign) with the per-catch upside that he flashed in 2021.
It can be sacrilege to toss around the “Megatron” name, but I’m not sure it’s a leap. Calvin Johnson had an obvious connection with Matthew Stafford, and in their third season together, the former scored a career-high 16 times and added 1,681 receiving yards for good measure.
That touchdown rate may seem optimistic, but if we assign Chase our projected catch total (117) and carry over his scoring rate from his first two seasons, we land on 15.3 scores. The potential for him to be the top-scoring receiver in the sport is certainly there and a special campaign isn’t at all out of the question.
If there is a nitpick, it’s the drop in explosive plays. While Chase’s athletic profile gives him access to game-breaking play, there’s no denying that the consistency of those highlights has faded a touch (18.0 yards per catch as a rookie and just 12.1 since).
Could that number rebound if Burrow is back to elite form? Of course, but the risk needs to be acknowledged. That concern is minor, though it’s enough to slot him behind CeeDee Lamb’s stability and Tyreek Hill’s unique role.
Chase’s overall production checks in alongside Amon-Ra St. Brown (albeit in a very different style) and a tick ahead of Justin Jefferson, placing him in the middle third of Round 1 by ADP.
From a roster-construction standpoint, stacking Chase with Burrow a few rounds later is very much on the table and something I try to do given his projected target share. In Round 2, the Travis Etienne Jr. and Derrick Henry tier — two backs who I believe carry plenty of upside as clear-cut featured options in offenses being driven by a franchise QB — has been a common landing spot for me.
Jason Katz’s Fantasy Insight on Ja’Marr Chase
Exactly one year ago, fantasy managers across the land were debating whether Justin Jefferson or Chase should be the No. 1 overall pick (if you didn’t select Christian McCaffrey). Now, while still highly regarded, it seems Chase has fallen out of that conversation.
Whether Chase is actually a bargain in 2024 requires figuring out why he took a step back last year. Chase hauled in 100 balls for 1,216 yards and seven touchdowns in 16 games. His yards per reception only changed by 0.2. Meanwhile, his yards per route run only dropped by 0.12, and his yards per target actually increased by 0.6.
The biggest factor was his target share dropping from 29.3% to 26.3%. While that’s not a massive decrease, it’s certainly enough to impact his production. Additionally, Chase never really got to play with a healthy Burrow at QB.
First, Burrow’s lingering calf strain clearly hampered his ability to throw the ball. Then, by the time Burrow’s calf got healthy, he tore a ligament in his wrist, ending his season. Chase had to deal with a decreased target share and subpar quarterback play. While Jake Browning played as well as could be expected, he’s still a backup-caliber quarterback.
The good news is Burrow started throwing in early May. There’s no reason to be concerned that he is anything other than 100%. Burrow is key to Chase producing elite WR1 numbers, but that goes for any wide receiver’s quarterback. Injuries happen. Burrow could get hurt again. But if he does, it won’t be because he wasn’t healthy to begin with.