Dallas Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb had more multi-touchdown games than scoreless efforts over the final 2.5 months of last season — on his way to the best receiving season in franchise history. Can Lamb repeat that fantasy football success in 2024, and does he deserve consideration for the 1.01 in PPR formats?
CeeDee Lamb’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- PPR Fantasy Points: 417 (275 non-PPR)
- Rushing Yards: 105
- Receptions: 142
- Receiving Yards: 1,869
- Receiving TDs: 12
CeeDee Lamb 🤯 pic.twitter.com/mDQFaLWXc8
— Fantasy Life (@MBFantasyLife) January 23, 2023
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 16. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Lamb This Year?
The only difficulty about Lamb’s massive 2023 season is determining which outstanding statistic you want to deem as the most impressive:
- Nine straight games with a touchdown
- Eight games with a 76% catch rate
- Seven games with 10+ receptions
- Four games with 150+ yards
Growth isn’t always linear, but Lamb’s has been. His talent and role have been increasing at a steady rate, something that makes him as viable at the top of drafts this season as anyone.
Per-game statistics
- 2020: 4.6 catches for 58.4 yards (0.3 touchdowns)
- 2021: 4.9 catches for 68.9 yards (0.4 touchdowns)
- 2022: 6.3 catches for 79.9 yards (0.5 touchdowns)
- 2023: 7.9 catches for 102.9 yards (0.7 touchdowns)
Now, I have my concerns about that annual improvement taking place in 2024 simply because building on a 135-1,749-12 season is a tall task. That said, nothing about Lamb’s 2023 campaign looks fluky.
When I look at these star receivers, the ability to be consistent is among the skills I value the most.
Tyreek Hill is elite, but without a splash play, there is a weekly floor to consider (16.4 PPG last season in games without a 35+ yard TD). Justin Jefferson’s first four seasons have been historic, but his target quality is now a concern. Ja’Marr Chase is relying on a quarterback who is recovering from injury, and Amon-Ra St. Brown is featured but is part of a gifted offense that can produce in a variety of ways.
Lamb has none of those concerns. He’s comfortable in Dallas’ system and his role. He’s also comfortable with his quarterback and, most importantly, with destroying defenses by whatever means necessary.
The big plays are no secret (10 games with a 25+ yard reception), but that’s not why Lamb is atop my WR rankings and in the 1.01 discussion, depending on your format. In 2023, he was the NFL leader in third-down receptions (36) and red-zone catches (17) while leading all receivers in fourth-quarter grabs (30).
Simply put, Lamb is game-script-proof and can win at every level in any matchup. If you want to poke minor roles in his résumé, it would be the fact that he scored on “only” 6.9% of his outdoor receptions last season (indoors: 10.4%).
The only reason that note is worth bringing up is that Dallas plays a pair of outdoor games during the fantasy postseason. Yet, one of those games comes in Philadelphia, a spot he had no issue in producing a season ago (36.4% target share and 191 receiving yards).
There’s no way around labeling Lamb as a game-changer. With the elevated floor that he offers, he’s essentially a no-risk, all-reward pick to kick off your 2024 fantasy season. If your league starts three receivers, I’m very much looking at Lamb at the 1.01 spot, understanding that the value at the position is slightly more valuable in that format.
Enjoy!
