Philadelphia Eagles TE Dallas Goedert has been a staple in this offense for the past six seasons, but his fantasy football production seems to have plateaued as Jalen Hurts has ascended.
Should managers overlook the lack of a true ceiling and embrace the known quantity if they elect to wait in drafting the tight end position?
Dallas Goedert’s 2024 Fantasy Forecast
Goedert is an interesting case, as he holds his own tier in most drafts. Most managers can’t decide if he should jump into the David Njoku/Brock Bowers tier as pick No. 100 comes around or fall back to the Dalton Schultz/Pat Freiermuth range 2-3 rounds later.
Thus, Goedert’s ADP lands right in the middle of those four, making him the only TE to come off the board during a 30-pick run.
This is the Dallas Goedert we like to see!!! Touchdown!!! 🐬 🦅#NFL #FinsUp #FlyEaglesFly #MIAvsPHI #SNFpic.twitter.com/BkYt6eHHeN
— Sportskeeda Pro Football (@SKProFootball) October 23, 2023
What’s the upside?
There is a world where Njoku could be the secondary pass catcher in a top-12 offense (he was last season!), and Bowers’ prospect profile gives him the potential to transcend a seemingly tough spot.
What hope do we have for Goedert — entering his age-29 season — to do anything more than what we’ve seen during his career? Sure, he’s had his moment, but Goedert’s next 60-catch season will be his first, and he hasn’t reached five touchdowns since 2019.
Factoring into the limited counting numbers is his inability to stay on the field (multiple missed games in four straight seasons), and considering that I rarely roster two tight ends, those DNPs hurt. Not only do they require managers to dumpster dive on the waiver wire to scrounge up whatever production they can for the time Goedert misses, but it also leads to the headache of wondering if he’s at full strength when he returns.
I’ve fallen into the “anti-Goedert” camp ever since Philadelphia acquired A.J. Brown from the Tennessee Titans, and I see no reason to pivot. I don’t trust Hurts as a passer to keep three primary targets involved consistently, and his tight end is a very distant third in the target hierarchy.
The addition of Saquon Barkley this offseason only magnifies my concerns. With Brown and DeVonta Smith threatening defenses vertically, Goedert would naturally have a few high-volume weeks where the opponent was willing to live with him on checkdowns as opposed to being vulnerable to the game-breaking play over the top.
With Barkley comes another target earner in the short passing game, which lowers Goedert’s ceiling, which wasn’t all that high to begin with (career-low 10.0 yards per catch in 2023).
Without much volume upside, he’d have to run hot with TD luck to produce viable fantasy numbers — something we’ve yet to see from him. Goedert is a nice piece for the Eagles and a trustworthy one with the game on the line, but fantasy managers can do better in 2024.
If I’m punting the TE position this season, a strategy that is harder than ever to do given the depth at the position, I either want a legitimate shot at target upside or talent development. We know what Goedert is as a player, and his role seems more likely to regress than progress. Instead …
- Cole Kmet: Embrace the unknown of a talented rookie QB
- Luke Musgrave: Embrace a potent offense with an unclear target hierarchy
- Taysom Hill: Embrace chaos and summer reporting
I’m not as much against Goedert as I am against the idea of Goedert. Why spend this level of draft capital when you can wait a few rounds, take on a greater risk/reward profile, and afford yourself the ability to make in-season changes if need be?
With Goedert, you’ll feel obligated to hold onto him through struggles, whereas taking a flier on any of the aforementioned players gives you the freedom to cycle through options before (hopefully) finding the difference-making sleeper at the position.