New Orleans Saints RB Alvin Kamara is getting up there in age. No longer as efficient as he was earlier in his career, Kamara’s fantasy football value is largely reliant on receiving volume. Can we project him to be the Saints’ lead back in 2024?
Alvin Kamara’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Fantasy points per game: 14.9
- Rushing Yards: 919
- Rush TDs: 4.2
- Receptions: 66
- Receiving Yards: 516
- Receiving TDs: 3.0
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 14. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Kamara This Year?
Early in his career, Kamara was one of the most efficient backs in the NFL. In each of his first four seasons, he averaged at least 5.3 yards per touch. But beginning in Year 5, his role started changing.
Kamara never eclipsed 200 carries in his first four years in the NFL. His highest attempts per game was 12.9. Over his past three seasons, though, he’s handled 240, 223, and 180 carries (the latter in just 13 games), respectively, averaging 18.5, 14.9, and 13.8 carries per game over that span.
This increase in pure rushing volume has cratered Kamara’s efficiency. He hasn’t averaged over 4.0 yards per carry since 2020. Last season, Kamara was only at 3.9 ypc. Yet, he was still quite a valuable fantasy asset, averaging 17.9 fantasy points per game, finishing as the overall RB3.
Why? Receptions.
Kamara’s 19.3% target share was second in the league. He wasn’t efficient on his carries, and he struggled to make defenders miss. But Kamara caught a ton of passes — 75 to be exact — which was second in the league despite missing four games.
I want to be out on Kamara. There are certainly plenty of reasons to be concerned. He’s shown clear signs of decline as a runner, including after he gets the ball in his hands through the air.
Kamara is 29 years old. New Orleans wants to utilize sophomore Kendre Miller more, perhaps at the goal line. And if not, they have Taysom Hill to steal touchdowns, capping Kamara’s upside.
With that said, the Saints project to have a very consolidated target distribution. Chris Olave will lead the team in targets. Rashid Shaheed is the WR2, but he’s never been a heavy target-share guy. It’s very easy to imagine Kamara second once again in targets…and that’s exactly how I projected him.
I have Kamara projected for an 18.5% target share. It’s a slight tick down from last year but still one of the highest at the position. With 85 receptions for 550 yards and 2.7 touchdowns to go along with 792 rushing yards and 5.4 touchdowns, Kamara wound up as the RB12 in my projections, averaging 15.73 ppg. And he’s only marginally lower than the RB6, which makes his RB16 ADP look quite appealing.
Kamara is certainly a better bet in PPR leagues than half or non, but I still can’t quite rank him where the projections have him. Given his age and performance last year, I have to adjust for the fact that Kamara’s skills could significantly decline this season, resulting in a target share lower than my projection. If his target share drops to even 15% (which is still excellent), he’ll likely fail to live up to ADP expectations.
I ranked Kamara as my RB16, but I don’t anticipate aggressively targeting him anywhere. I’m not opposed to him at the right price, but he checks too many boxes of the quintessential dead-zone running back.