Buffalo Bills RB James Cook has been quite efficient over his first two professional seasons but has yet to see true lead-back volume. In a full year with Joe Brady as offensive coordinator and with a weak group of wide receivers, could Cook be poised for a breakout season? What does his fantasy football projection say?
James Cook’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Fantasy points per game: 15.1
- Rushing Yards: 1,211
- Rush TDs: 3.0
- Receptions: 48
- Receiving Yards: 364
- Receiving TDs: 3.7
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 14. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Cook This Year?
After two years in the NFL, it’s fair to say Cook is good at football. He’s a talented player and clearly the best running back on the Bills. But being good in real life doesn’t always translate into being good in fantasy.
Last season, Cook played 55.1% of the snaps and saw a 62.4% opportunity share. Those numbers are perfectly fine. They resulted in him amassing 1,567 yards from scrimmage. Yet, Cook only averaged 13.7 fantasy points per game, finishing as the overall RB19.
That was fine last year, given Cook’s ADP. But Cook is being drafted as the RB13 this year. Given that my projections have him producing similarly, with a small uptick in fantasy points per game (ppg), I’m concerned he’s a bit overvalued.
Projections aren’t everything. Just because Cook is most likely to be around 14 ppg doesn’t mean he isn’t worth drafting, as long as the potential exists for more. Given his cost in fantasy drafts, he needs 16 ppg upside.
The increase in volume from Cook’s rookie to sophomore season naturally resulted in decreased efficiency. However, Cook was still quite efficient … or was he?
Cook’s 5.6 yards per touch was fifth in the league, but that was heavily bolstered by his 10.2 yards per reception. Cook only commanded a 9.9% target share, 25th in the league. He was just very effective with his receptions.
Otherwise, Cook wasn’t all that great at generating yards. His evaded-tackles-per-touch rate and yards created per touch were both outside the top 40.
Now, to be fair, efficiency isn’t all that important with running backs, as long as they are seeing volume. But how much more volume can a 199-pound back like Cook really see? Are the Bills prepared to feed him 300 touches?
I projected Cook for 297 opportunities, which feels more on the high end of what he can handle. I have him running for 1,153 yards and five touchdowns while adding 39 receptions for 363 yards and three scores through the air. That gives us 14.03 ppg, which is about a ppg lower than the PFN consensus.
That may seem like a large gap, but it really comes down to the reception disparity. It’s not as large as it may seem.
Although Leonard Fournette and Latavius Murray are no longer around, the Bills drafted Ray Davis on Day 3. The rookie’s size suggests he could handle the short-yardage and goal-line work.
Last season, Cook scored just six times. His yardage total suggests he probably should’ve scored more, but that’s difficult to do when he only saw four goal-line carries all season. Cook has to create longer touchdowns or he’s not going to score. That’s a problem for his upside.
It is worth noting that Cook did score four of his six touchdowns in the second half of the season after Joe Brady took over as offensive coordinator. However, his improved productivity wasn’t quite what it seemed.
Cook’s value was heavily boosted by scoring 25.1 and 36.1 fantasy points in Weeks 14 and 15. From Week 16 onward, including the NFL playoffs, Cook was under 10 points three times and did not score above 12.4 fantasy points.
There’s nothing wrong with drafting Cook. I have him ranked as my RB15, but he came out as the RB19 in my projections. Unfortunately, Cook is more of a floor player than a ceiling player.
You won’t lose your league because Cook failed you. That’s highly unlikely to happen. However, he’s probably not the type of back that’s going to move the needle. As a result, I am only targeting Cook if he falls below his RB13 ADP. Otherwise, I will look to other positions when Cook is the top running back on the board.
