Tampa Bay Buccaneers RB Rachaad White was a revelation in fantasy football last season due in large part to volume and his excellent ability as a receiver. With minimal competition in the Bucs’ backfield, could White be a value once again? Let’s take a look at his 2024 projection.
Rachaad White’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Fantasy points per game: 16.1
- Rushing Yards: 966
- Rush TDs: 4.6
- Receptions: 75
- Receiving Yards: 551
- Receiving TDs: 3.3
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 14. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft White This Year?
If you’ve read enough of my outlooks, you’ve read the phrase “volume is king” so many times that you probably want to yell at me to shut up. I get it. But…volume is king. And no player last year provided that more than White.
I was fading White hard last season because he was one of the worst runners in the NFL as a rookie. There was no one to compete with him for touches, but I figured someone would have to mix in on early downs if he continues to be that bad. Well … nope.
White was worse than advertised, averaging a paltry 3.6 yards per carry. He had just six carries all season that went for 15+ yards — a 2.2% rate, 47th in the NFL. This is despite leading the league in carries against light boxes, against which he only averaged 3.7 ypc.
By just about every measure, White’s production was entirely a product of volume. His 12.7% target share was only 13th in the league, but he was fourth in total receptions and third in receiving yards.
White is also the rare RB who has the passing-down and goal-line roles. Even if rookie Bucky Irving takes on more work than White’s sub-replacement-level backups did last season, he’s likely to take some of those early-down carries away from White. Those carries account for so little of White’s fantasy value, they barely move the needle.
As long as White maintains his receiving and goal-line role, he should be able to produce.
I have White projected for a modest decrease in volume, losing one carry per game. Otherwise, his role looks to be pretty similar, resulting in my projection for him being quite close to last year’s 15.8 fantasy points per game.
In my projections, White will rush for 944 yards and seven scores while adding 62 catches for 459 yards and 3.2 more touchdowns through the air. That comes out to 15.51 ppg.
Although White proved me wrong last year, history has shown that “well, there’s no one else there” is the single worst reason fantasy managers can use to justify drafting a player who isn’t particularly talented.
With that said, there’s more to White than just him being the only guy there. He averaged 7.8 yards per target and is a legitimately good receiver. The concern is that his offensive coordinator change could result in a reduced receiving role, as more targets funnel to the wide receivers. That would be a problem.
The good news is White’s ADP (RB14) doesn’t reflect how effective he was as a fantasy asset last season.
White’s projections placed him at RB13, but with not much separating him from the RB10 or the RB16. Essentially, he’s going right where he should, and I have him ranked as my RB13, right in line with my projections and slightly above ADP.
I fully endorse drafting White at cost relative to his position. The only hesitation I would have is in deciding which wide receivers he’s worth taking over. There may very well be about 20 of them I’d prefer over White.