Las Vegas Raiders WR Davante Adams was unable to overcome poor quarterback play, snapping his seven-year streak of finishing as a WR1 in fantasy football.
With Adams likely only having a couple of years left in his career, can we still project him to be one of the top receivers in the NFL?
Davante Adams’ 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Fantasy points per game: 15.7
- Receptions: 92
- Receiving Yards: 1,189
- Receiving TDs: 9.3
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 14. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Adams This Year?
Adams is a prime example of why there’s a lot more to evaluating players for fantasy purposes than pure projections. After all, how can we project Adams for anything other than the clear WR1 role with the Raiders?
Although the Raiders still have Jakobi Meyers and added Brock Bowers in the draft, Adams remains the top guy in Vegas. He saw a 33.1% target share last season, second in the league. His 31.1% targets per route run rate was also second.
Plus, it’s not like Adams was bad. He averaged 15.6 fantasy points per game, finishing as the WR15. The issue is this is Davante Adams we’re talking about.
Prior to last year, Adams hadn’t averaged fewer than 17.6 points per game in any of the previous five seasons. It’s a noticeable decline for a player at the age — 31 years old — at which wide receivers typically start to decline.
There was already a noticeable issue in 2022 when Adams still averaged 19.7 fantasy points per game. His catch rate, which was 77.2% and 72.8% in 2020 and 2021, respectively, fell to a career-low 55.6%. It didn’t improve in 2023, remaining below 60% at 58.9%.
In my initial evaluation of Adams, I was viewing things through very rose-colored lenses. Adams appeared to be the same guy he always was. However, further analysis revealed something at least slightly concerning.
Adams’ yards per route run and first downs per route run have both declined considerably over the past two seasons. He also isn’t getting open at quite the rate he was in his prime, particularly struggling against man coverage, which is highly predictive of a receiver’s ability.
The problem with applying this in projections is even if Adams isn’t the player he once was, it’s hard to project him for a low target share. I have him at 31%, which is a 2.1% drop from last season. Even if I dropped that another couple of percentage points, it still wouldn’t be enough to get him outside the WR1s.
Additionally, who exactly is taking targets away from Adams? The Raiders have complementary pieces, but Meyers and Bowers aren’t exactly about to steal volume from Adams. Even at 70% of his prime self, Adams is still better than these guys.
As a result of all this, Adams projects out as my WR10 with very little separating him from the WR9 and WR14. His ADP is WR10. There doesn’t appear to be much downside with Adams.
Yet, after very careful thought, and after initially buying a bounce back, I lowered Adams from WR8 to WR13. Simply put, I no longer want him.
How can I reconcile this with projecting him so high? After all, I have him projected for 105 catches for 1,269 yards and 8.7 touchdowns. That comes out to 16.68 ppg, nearly identical to the PFN consensus projections.
However, projections can’t really capture downside. There’s no way to project “done.”
What if Adams is done? I’m not saying he definitely is, nor am I saying that his decline would be precipitous instead of gradual. But that risk is unquestionably there.
My new philosophy on older players is no longer to be out a year early than a year late. Instead, I am in until I see a reason not to be. Sadly, Adams’ regression in his ability to beat man coverage and his yards per route run is enough to scare me off.
Of course, it’s possible Adams bounces back. He’s one of the best receivers in NFL history. I’d just rather bank on progression from young receivers than a rebound from a 31-year-old wideout.