Jacksonville Jaguars WR Brian Thomas Jr. leaves college and finds himself in a role that figures to be fantasy football-friendly from the jump. The 6’4” walking mismatch, in theory, has a clear path to see plenty of impactful volume in an offense with its franchise quarterback in place and the majority (53.4%) of their 10+ yard receptions from the receiver position no longer in town.
Could Thomas be the best value in the 2024 rookie class?
Should You Select Brian Thomas Jr. at His Current ADP?
ADP: 122nd Overall (WR49)
Thomas’ ADP is currently around 115th overall. If that stays, you’ll be loading your roster with the type of depth that fantasy champions are made of.
We saw Rashee Rice and Jayden Reed really pick up their production as their rookie seasons wore on last season, a trend among high-pedigree first-year wideouts and one that Thomas could capitalize on as well.
- Week 16: at Las Vegas Raiders
- Week 17: vs. Tennessee Titans
- Week 18: at Indianapolis Colts
You’re passing on Courtland Sutton or pick-your-favorite-Buffalo-Bill-receiver tier of WR to gain access to the services of Thomas.
I’m in. All the way. Without question. The risk has been taken out of this profile based on cost, something that cannot be said for most of this loaded rookie class.
Thomas’ Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
The Jags spent the 23rd overall pick in April on Thomas after he lit up college football with 17.3 yards per catch and 17 scores on 68 receptions for the WR factory that is LSU these days.
While Jacksonville is coming off a disappointing season, there’s still optimism that Trevor Lawrence is the man to take this franchise to the promised land. And with play-calling that skews in the favor of the passing game (fifth in pass rate over expectation in 2023), that could make BTJ an instant star.
Outstretched finger-tip grab by Brian Thomas Jr. while running close to full speed.
One of the best in this class at attacking the ball while working on the vertical plane.
— Ian Cummings (@IC_Draft) March 27, 2024
I’m optimistic on the whole, but I’ll admit that there seems destined to be some serious growing pains (if they occur early in the season, you’ll more than likely be reading a lot of “buy low” content from yours truly).
Last season, when there was only one true vertical stretch, the output of that player was limited.
Calvin Ridley per game with Zay Jones active
- Catches: 5.3
- Targets: 9.4
- Yards: 74.6
Calvin Ridley per game with Zay Jones inactive
- Catches: 3.8
- Targets: 7.0
- Yards: 44.5
You could spin that data into a concern that when without another threat down the field, the primary big-play threat is unable to connect with Lawrence. In those games with Jones active, Ridley averaged 24.2% more yards per target, the type of jump that elevates a receiver from a shaky Flex option to one that is in your lineup most weeks.
The Jaguars replaced Jones with Gabe Davis this offseason. Maybe he can provide enough support to this passing game for Thomas to live in the “with Jones” neighborhood of the splits listed above.
That’s the approach I’m taking, though Davis has proven to be volatile week over week. And if defenses aren’t too concerned with him, Thomas will struggle to produce anything close to the top 30 numbers that I think are within his range of outcomes.