It’s easy to be a bit skeptical about the fantasy football outlook of a 40-year-old QB coming off of an Achilles injury. But prematurely writing off New York Jets QB Aaron Rodgers could prove to be a big mistake if the future Hall of Fame signal-caller has another MVP-caliber season left in the tank.
What can fantasy managers expect from Rodgers in 2024?
Aaron Rodgers’ 2024 Fantasy Forecast
Outside of injuries, Rodgers has been one of the safest fantasy investments at the QB position throughout his NFL career.
Rodgers’ Career Fantasy Production
- 4,000-yard seasons: 10
- 30 passing TD seasons: 8
- Top 10 fantasy seasons: 12
Unfortunately, injuries have occasionally plagued the former Green Bay Packer, as evidenced by his missing a minimum of seven games in 2013, 2017, and 2023. The most relevant of these injury-plagued campaigns comes from his torn Achilles in last year’s season opener, which ended his Jets debut after less than five snaps.
By all accounts, Rodgers’ Achilles injury doesn’t appear to be any sort of issue heading into training camp, and it should be all systems go for 2024.
The Jets made some offseason moves to build around Rodgers for the upcoming season by spending their first five picks in the 2024 NFL Draft on the offensive side of the ball. They added Penn State OT Olu Fashanu and Western Kentucky WR Malachi Corley on Day 1 and 2, respectively, to hopefully infuse an offense that finished 31st in the league with 268.6 yards per game in 2023.
Additionally, New York signed WR Mike Williams this offseason. Rodgers would find this a bit more exciting if the veteran wideout weren’t rehabbing from a torn ACL from last year, but if Williams can make a full recovery, he could prove to be a viable red-zone threat.
Ultimately, WR Garrett Wilson and RB Breece Hall are going to be the best weapons Rodgers has at his disposal this season. Wilson is a dynamic talent and should be a great go-to option, but the rest of Rodgers’ weapons at receiver and tight end are a bit unknown at this time.
If Wilson turns out to be Rodgers’ next Davante Adams-type producer and the additions of Williams and Corley work out, then the veteran QB could certainly produce another top-10 fantasy season. If other options don’t emerge alongside Wilson and the offensive line continues to struggle, then Rodgers’ fantasy ceiling could be a bit lower than the greatness we’ve seen from him in the past.
Rodgers’ ADP at No. 122 overall (QB20) feels a bit criminal with the legendary fantasy production we’ve seen from him over his career. For some additional context, Rodgers is currently being drafted after a pair of rookie quarterbacks — Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels — and another veteran coming off of an Achilles injury (Kirk Cousins).
Once upon a time, Tom Brady and Brett Favre both proved all-time great quarterbacks can have a big fantasy impact in their 40s with the right set of circumstances. Brady had Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, and Rob Gronkowski to help deliver an outstanding 2020 season. Favre, meanwhile, helped make Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin household fantasy names back in 2009 with a QB3 overall finish.
Do you consider Wilson, Williams, Corley, and Hall good enough weapons to help Rodgers produce another top-10 fantasy season? Ultimately, that’s up to you to decide. I’m not willing to write off Rodgers quite yet, but I can’t definitively say his situation behind a questionable OL and a mediocre collection of pass-catching threats makes me confident he’ll have one more great season in 2024.
Rodgers probably warrants a slightly higher ranking than this, but I still consider him a fringe low-end QB1 option.