Arizona Cardinals QB Kyler Murray enters 2024 with as much talent at his disposal as ever, and that creates an intoxicating fantasy football ceiling. He will enter this season as a 27-year-old with an elite season (2020) on his résumé, but also with 15 missed games over the past two years.
Is the potential worth the risk in the middle rounds, given the talent at the position?
Should You Select Kyler Murray at His Current ADP?
ADP: 75th Overall (QB10)
After the top tier at the position is off the board, we see a second tier gain popularity as the sixth round comes to an end. Dak Prescott, Joe Burrow, and Jordan Love join Murray in this range. Again, your willingness to take on a wide range of outcomes is critical.
- Safest option: Prescott
- Passing upside: Burrow
- Natural growth: Love
We are all different as managers, and each of these four could easily be explained as a solid pick based on how you run your team. I build stability at the skill positions and am willing to roll the dice at the QB position due to my belief in myself to manage the position if the worst-case scenario comes to fruition.
Anthony Richardson, Murray, and the two-QB plan are how I see the vast majority of my rosters forming. I want league-winning upside at these one-off positions and am willing to pay top dollar for those who offer such a profile.
Before you evaluate players for 2024, you must evaluate yourself.
Murray’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
How much risk are you willing to take on at the quarterback position? That answer will drive your exposure levels to Murray, as he carries top-five potential, but has been unavailable over the past two seasons and has flashed an inconsistent arm.
Kyler Murray just went video game mode. This is crazy. pic.twitter.com/ztOoDLWmAf
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) September 18, 2022
The “risk” I’m speaking of is, of course, partly based on Murray but also on his cost in drafts and the planning that goes into making this selection. More often than not, if I take a QB in the first 100 picks, I’m not drafting a backup — roster spots are simply too valuable in most leagues, and devoting one to a onesie position is generally not optimal.
That means that if you go the Murray route, you’re signing up for a long year on the waiver wire if things go sideways. That’s tough to parlay into a championship.
Naturally, scared money doesn’t make money. In 2020, Murray threw for nearly 4,000 while also punching in 11 scores on the ground. Supporting him that season was a receiver with first-round draft capital in his first season with the Cardinals.
Sound familiar?
READ MORE: Fantasy Football: Is Stacking Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr. Advantageous?
For his career, Murray averages 41 opportunities (pass or rush attempts) per game, a level that grades out well. With his explosive-play potential, a number like that is enough to land him in the top 10 any given week. If his group of pass catchers is as good as we think, top 10s will be a low bar for him to achieve.
