The Indianapolis Colts and fantasy football managers alike got a pretty encouraging rookie season from WR Josh Downs in 2023, especially when you take into consideration that he was playing with a backup quarterback for 13 games last year.
After the Colts spent second-round NFL Draft capital at his position this offseason, what can fantasy managers expect from Downs in 2024?
Josh Downs’ 2024 Fantasy Forecast
Downs’ rookie production of 68 receptions for 771 yards and two scores on 98 targets was good enough to finish as the WR43 in full-PPR formats in 2024. The beauty truly is in the eye of the beholder when it comes to how you view last season from the North Carolina product.
If you are a Downs truther, you’ll quickly point out the vast majority of his rookie stat line came with backup quarterback Gardner Minshew under center after Anthony Richardson suffered a season-ending shoulder injury in Week 5 against the Tennessee Titans.
The optimism doesn’t stop there, though. Downs also had his best game of the season against one of the league’s stingiest defenses — the Cleveland Browns — with five receptions for 125 yards and a score in Week 7 with Minshew throwing him passes.
Yet, the Downs haters will be quick to point out his modest production during Richardson’s brief time as a starter, his lackluster production over the final nine games of the year (failing to top 10 fantasy points in full-PPR formats), and the arrival of another talented rookie receiver this upcoming season (Adonai Mitchell), all of which cast some doubt to his fantasy outlook in 2024.
Let’s be real here for a second. Downs’ only real competition for targets last year was Michael Pittman Jr., who finished with 54 more targets and 41 more receptions than Downs in 2023. One could argue players like Alec Pierce, Kylen Granson, and Will Mallory forced Downs into a bigger role than expected last year.
The real problems here are the talented rookie from Texas (Mitchell) and Richardson’s unknown passing production and tendencies.
Mitchell has the physical profile (6’2”, 205 pounds), explosive athleticism (4.34 speed), and route-running abilities to create a 1A/1B situation with Pittman in this passing attack. Mitchell also has the vertical speed to consistently create chunk plays on the second and third levels of the defense, which isn’t where Downs thrived last year.
Can Downs be an effective RAC and chain-moving threat out of the slot? Yes, absolutely. I just don’t know if he is going to see enough volume this upcoming season to be much more than a deeper Flex option in full-PPR formats in 2024.
Adding to the complication of projecting a breakout year for Downs is the fact he’ll be entering the season trying to work through a high ankle sprain he picked up in training camp. This isn’t a fantasy death sentence by any means, but it does make his lower his expectations this year a slight bit for me.
Downs’ ADP of No. 199 overall in the 17th round as the WR69 off the board certainly suggests fantasy managers are a bit skeptical of the Colts WR having a breakout season in 2024. For some additional context, Downs is being drafted after Dontavyion Wicks, Jerry Jeudy, and his new teammate, Mitchell.
Downs clearly had a role in the Colts’ passing attack during his rookie year. His lack of big-time production during his limited time with Richardson under center makes it a bit difficult to project his fantasy outlook heading into his sophomore campaign.
It’s hard to imagine a scenario where Downs doesn’t have the slot role on lockdown, which means he is likely to be on the field often in 11 personnel sets. Is that role one that could lead to a low-end WR2 campaign in 2024? It is possible, but definitely towards the most optimistic range of outcomes.
Ultimately, Downs’ fantasy value will be closely tied to how effective Richardson is in 2024. Personally, I would rather role the dice on multiple other options at receiver in this range of my fantasy drafts.
