Two years ago, the Gabe Davis fantasy football hype train got completely out of control, propelling him to heights he couldn’t hope to match. Since then, his value has plummeted.
Now on a new team, could Davis actually be a value as the potential WR for the Jacksonville Jaguars?
Should You Select Gabe Davis at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 164th Overall (WR60)
- Inconsistent Production: Davis has always been a boom-or-bust player. Despite his ability to produce big plays and score long touchdowns, his inconsistency has made him a frustrating player to roster in fantasy football.
- Struggles to Command Targets: Davis has never commanded a significant target share, with his highest being 18.2% in 2022. Last season, it dropped to 14.9%. Despite playing with a top quarterback in Josh Allen, Davis was often an afterthought in the Bills’ offense.
- New Opportunity in Jacksonville: Now with the Jaguars, Davis faces a downgrade in quarterback play with Trevor Lawrence and more target competition from Christian Kirk, Evan Engram, and rookie Brian Thomas Jr.
- ADP Analysis: Davis is currently being drafted as WR60, No. 164 overall. I have him ranked slightly higher at WR57, but the difference is minimal this late in drafts. Davis is a risky pick with limited upside.
- Final Verdict: Entering his fifth season, Davis is a known quantity. While he may have some spike weeks, the unpredictability and limited ceiling make him a less appealing option in fantasy drafts. I’d prefer to take a chance on younger, unproven players with higher potential.
PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for Gabe Davis
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis. Since Davis is ranked outside the top 75 in the PFN Consensus Rankings, we’ve listed the consensus WR rankings instead.
57) Brandin Cooks, WR | Dallas Cowboys
58) Jerry Jeudy, WR | Cleveland Browns
59) Khalil Shakir, WR | Buffalo Bills
60) Rashid Shaheed, WR | New Orleans Saints
61) Joshua Palmer, WR | Los Angeles Chargers
62) Gabe Davis, WR | Jacksonville Jaguars
63) DeMario Douglas, WR | New England Patriots
64) Jahan Dotson, WR | Washington Commanders
65) Adam Thielen, WR | Carolina Panthers
66) Dontayvion Wicks, WR | Green Bay Packers
67) Ja’Lynn Polk, WR | New England Patriots
Davis’ Fantasy Profile for the 2024 Fantasy Season
Through four seasons, Davis has been the worst type of player to roster in fantasy. He’s just good enough to be worth rostering but never good enough to trust in lineups.
The appeal with Davis is his weekly upside is massive. He’s a big play threat and capable of scoring long touchdowns at any point. Davis’ worst yards per reception in a single season was 15.7.
Davis has always struggled to command targets. His best season target share was 18.2% in 2022. Last year, that fell to 14.9%, and he was targeted on just 14.6% of his routes run. Simply put, Davis was largely an afterthought in the Bills’ offense.
Even amidst his limited usage, Davis showed why there ever was hype around him. He had a whopping five games of 20+ fantasy points. That’s the same number of 20-point games as Ja’Marr Chase.
Of course, the downside of Davis is matchup-losing. He had five games with zero fantasy points, plus another four with five points or fewer. Additionally, there’s no rhyme or reason to when Davis smashes. You can’t play matchups when it’s completely random.
Is Davis a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?
Davis’ WR61 ADP, No. 166 overall, is the most affordable he’s been in the past three years. Nevertheless, it’s difficult to get excited about what Davis has to offer.
Davis’ talent is what it is. He hasn’t really shown much improvement over the course of his career. He’s an inconsistent stretch Z — a splash play specialist. There’s a reason his catch rate is consistently around 55%. In the right environment, though, that can work for fantasy.
The problem with Davis is how the environment can ever be better than it was in Buffalo. He had Josh Allen, a top-three quarterback. The Bills had no viable WR2 behind Stefon Diggs, creating all the opportunity in the world for Davis. The reality is Davis was unable to command targets.
Now, Davis heads to Jacksonville for a fresh start. That can often be good for players. In Davis’ case, though, it’s hard to see it.
For starters, Davis is facing a massive downgrade in quarterback play. Allen is one of the best QBs in the league. Trevor Lawrence is mediocre, at best.
Second, there’s actually more target competition in Jacksonville than in Buffalo. Even though the Jaguars lack an alpha target hog like prime Diggs, they have two very capable pass-catchers in Christian Kirk and Evan Engram. They also added first-round wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr., who could very well immediately be the best WR on this team. Davis is now competing with three talented players for targets instead of just one.
I have Davis ranked as my WR57, which is slightly above consensus. However, this late in drafts, that gap is largely meaningless. These players are all similarly valued, and you can take your pick of who you want to target. For my money, Davis is not the type of guy I’m looking to target.
Entering his fifth season, we know who Davis is. I’d rather take a chance on younger, unproven players with the potential to do more than provide the sporadic unpredictable spike week.
