The 2023 New England Patriots offense didn’t give us very much to get excited about, but perhaps one player who made a compelling case for an expanded role with his encouraging play last year was WR DeMario Douglas.
After New England added a new franchise quarterback and two talented pass catchers in the 2024 NFL Draft, what can fantasy football managers expect from Douglas in his second season?
DeMario Douglas’ 2024 Fantasy Forecast
Douglas’ 2023 rookie production may not have entered the same stratosphere as Puka Nacua last year, but his 49 receptions for 561 yards were good enough for a WR64 finish in full-PPR formats, despite being in one of the NFL‘s worst passing offenses.
Douglas really saw his role expand in the offense during the Patriots’ 29-25 upset victory over the Buffalo Bills in Week 7, which saw him finish with four receptions for 54 yards while seeing more than 60% of the offensive snaps. For some additional context, Douglas would see north of that snap share in every full game he played for the remainder of the year.
From Week 7 through the end of the year, Douglas was the WR53 with 9.4 points per game in full-PPR formats. I’m fully aware those aren’t exactly league-winning numbers, but the only wide receivers to score more fantasy points than him during that span with no touchdowns were Adam Thielen and Drake London — both productive receivers also stuck in rough passing offenses.
To expand on that point, the only receiver to see more targets than Douglas’ 79 and not score a touchdown was Carolina’s Jonathan Mingo. To say some potential positive TD regression could be in store this upcoming season is certainly plausible.
Speaking of this upcoming season, New England’s passing offense should look completely different with rookie quarterback Drake Maye projected to take over under center at some point in 2024. Additionally, the Patriots drafted both Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker this offseason to join Kendrick Bourne and Douglas on the depth chart.
I like both rookies, but Baker really doesn’t project as much of a threat to Douglas’ effectiveness out of the slot. Polk, on the other hand, certainly does, with his formation versatility, route-running savvy, and excellent hands. However, he doesn’t excel in the manufactured touch department (screens and jet sweeps) like Douglas, giving the second-year veteran some role security heading into 2024.
In fact, over 35% of Douglas’ receptions last year came on screen passes. If this role transfers into this season and is combined with improved QB play and potential improvement as a player in his sophomore campaign, Douglas could be a valuable full-PPR depth piece this year.
Unfortunately, none of those optimistic hopes are guaranteed to happen this year. Douglas will be involved in the offense, but his target share and uncertainty regarding this Patriots’ aerial attack make it tough to confidently project a big step up in production for his sophomore season.
Douglas’ ADP of No. 177 overall (WR80) feels very low for a player who gave fantasy managers a reliable weekly floor his rookie year in a terrible passing offense.
For some additional context, Douglas is being drafted behind Michael Wilson, Rashod Bateman, and rookie Troy Franklin. No disrespect to them, but they all feel like dart throws in direct comparison to a player like Douglas, who could actually provide some real Flex value to your team.
Is it reasonable to doubt that New England’s passing game is going to generate any big-time fantasy producers in 2024? Probably not, but being able to add a player like Douglas in the final round of your fantasy draft feels like stealing at his current ADP.
