The Buffalo Bills‘ passing game has always been an interesting group for fantasy football managers, given the high-scoring output we’ve seen over the last four years. Well, this offense just got a whole lot more intriguing after drafting polarizing FSU WR Keon Coleman this offseason.
Will Coleman emerge as the highest-scoring fantasy WR on the Bills’ roster in 2024?
Keon Coleman’s 2024 Fantasy Forecast
Let’s start by explaining why everyone is so optimistic about Coleman’s fantasy outlook heading into the 2024 NFL season. The departure of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis removes 1,929 yards and 15 touchdowns worth of production from last year’s roster.
The Bills immediately decided to address this need by spending the 33rd pick in the 2024 NFL Draft on Coleman. This move naturally has the attention of the fantasy football world, as quarterback Josh Allen doesn’t have an established top wideout to force-feed the ball to this upcoming season.
Additionally, Buffalo signed veteran WR Curtis Samuel to join both Coleman and Khalil Shakir on the roster. For some additional context, Shakir emerged as a nice slot contributor in the back half of his sophomore season, with 39 receptions for 611 yards and two scores in 2023.
None of the other receivers on the roster possess the type of exceptional physical profile Coleman has. He’s an imposing 6’3”, 213-pounder with a rocked-up frame. Coleman is an absolute bully at the catch point and a fairly big problem to get to the ground as a run-after-catch (RAC) threat with far better twitch than you would expect for a player his size.
Coleman’s profile certainly shows the physical traits of a dominant outside X-receiver. Unfortunately, that type of role is paired with some red flags in his game.
Coleman doesn’t have the top speed to consistently threaten defensive backs on the vertical plane (4.61-second 40-time at the NFL Combine), which is compounded by his lack of burst at the breakpoint of his route and consistently beating press coverage.
I have real concerns about Coleman’s ability to consistently create separation as a predominantly outside receiver in the NFL. But to be fair, it wasn’t all that long ago when he was moonlighting as a D-1 basketball player at Michigan State under Tom Izzo.
Perhaps now being a full-time football player could help Coleman quickly improve the other detail-oriented aspects of his game, which could help him reach his sky-high fantasy ceiling.
Coleman comes with plenty of risk, but he’s certainly worth a middle-round pick when fantasy drafts roll around. Yet, the risk of his profile is paired with some great upside as an alpha target earner in Buffalo’s high-powered offense.
Diggs was a top-10 fantasy WR all four years he was in Buffalo, catching over 100+ passes and producing 1,100+ receiving yards every season. Do he and Coleman have much in common with their respective prospect profiles? Not really, but anytime a player who has seen 156+ targets from an elite QB exits an offense, the upside for a new go-to option clearly exists.
Coleman is going to be one of the more interesting studies of this fantasy draft season due to the overhaul of the Bills’ roster. His ADP currently sits at No. 114 overall as the WR47 off the board. For some additional context, he is the first Bills receiver being drafted and is going ahead of Tyler Lockett, Jakobi Meyers, and Jameson Williams.
Heading into his rookie year, Coleman has an exciting physical profile and an excellent opportunity to see a very healthy target share from a superstar quarterback. However, for me, the separation and route-running concerns are legitimate.
Coleman will undoubtedly get some red-zone looks and make his fair share of plays as a rookie. Still, I would rather get a share of Buffalo’s passing game at a round or two discount than pass on a player like Ladd McConkey to draft Coleman.
