The Seattle Seahawks drafting Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft negatively impacted both DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett in fantasy football last year.
Can fantasy managers expect a breakout season from the second-year WR in a crowded receiver room in 2024?
Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s 2024 Fantasy Forecast
On the surface, Smith-Njigba’s WR48 finish in full-PPR formats with 63 receptions for 628 yards and four scores on 93 targets wasn’t a horrible year, but considering the expectations many fantasy managers had for the former Ohio State Buckeye this could be considered a bit of a disappointment.
Smith-Njigba was battling a forearm issue to start his rookie year, which could explain his slow start — failing to top 10 fantasy points in full-PPR formats in the first five games of his NFL career. He still proved he could be an effective receiver at the NFL level, though, while competing with two established veterans for targets from a journeyman quarterback in Geno Smith.
Yet, the fantasy ceiling felt significantly capped for the entire 2023 campaign due to Metcalf and Lockett’s presence. Smith-Njigba never had more than 63 receiving yards in a game and saw more than seven targets in a game just once in his rookie year.
Smith-Njigba proved to be an effective slot option — where he lined up 64.3% of the time last season — and added some playmaking ability as a RAC threat but failed to do much else.
Smith-Njigba’s contested catch rate (25%), yards per route run (1.33), and average depth of target (6.1) all ranked outside of the top 60 at his position.
Smith-Njigba’s low aDOT stems a bit from his high usage in the screen game — where 33% of his total receptions came last year — which suggests the Seahawks were making it a point to get him the football, but this role didn’t translate to elite fantasy success as a rookie.
Ultimately, Smith-Njigba still is a great route runner and capable producer from the slot in the NFL. Yet, I do have serious questions about his fantasy ceiling because of target competition and questionable quarterback play in a new offensive scheme under first-year NFL offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb.
Smith-Njigba will be in the mix for somewhere between 90-120 targets this year, but if he is utilized similarly to last season, I don’t know if he will see enough volume to overcome his lack of explosive plays in this Seattle offense.
It would appear as though fantasy managers are a bit skeptical about Smith-Njigba leaping the fantasy elite in his second year with an ADP of No. 108 overall as the WR44 off the board. For some additional context, he is currently being drafted behind Xavier Worthy, Rome Odunze, and Christian Watson at his position in the ninth-round range.
Smith-Njigba wasn’t inherently bad as a rookie, but the organization’s decision to restructure Lockett’s contract ensures this pass-catching trio returns, which will once again make it difficult for a top fantasy option to emerge in 2024.
Even if you subscribe to the thought process that Lockett’s play has declined a bit, I’m not sure it was by a significant enough margin to project a jump for Smith-Njigba into a top-20 fantasy season at the WR position this year.
If Smith can revert to his 2022 form under center, then there is an outside chance all three receivers could generate a top-30 season, but that isn’t a leap I’m willing to make.
Considering where Smith-Njigba finished his rookie year, this current price tag shouldn’t be qualified as a reach because I do believe he can be even better in his second season. However, I would simply prefer to draft Lockett two rounds later to get a share of this passing attack in 2024.