Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa led the league in passing yards in 2023 while playing in the first full season of his four-year NFL career. This showcased that Tagovailoa can be a very productive fantasy starter in this high-powered offense loaded with speedy playmakers.
Can fantasy football managers expect an even better year from Tagovailoa in 2024?
Should You Select Tua Tagovailoa at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 106th Overall (QB14)
- Durability and Performance: Tagovailoa put his durability concerns to rest in 2023, playing all 17 games and leading the league with 4,624 passing yards and 29 touchdowns, finishing as QB9 overall.
- Advanced Metrics: Tagovailoa’s success wasn’t just due to his playmakers; he led the NFL with the lowest time to throw (2.36 seconds) and ranked second in air yards per attempt (5.1). He also led the league in deep passes, attempting seven throws of 50+ yards.
- Offensive Mastery: Tagovailoa’s ability to process defenses and deliver pinpoint passes at all three levels of the field was key to Miami’s explosive passing game, proving he’s more than just a product of his environment.
- Struggles Against Winning Teams: While Tagovailoa struggled against teams with winning records in 2023, factors like a makeshift offensive line contributed to these challenges. This could improve with a healthier and more stable offensive line in 2024.
- Offensive Additions: The additions of Odell Beckham Jr., Jonnu Smith, and rookie WRs Malik Washington and Tahj Washington could bolster Tagovailoa’s fantasy outlook, though the core of Miami’s offense remains the same.
- Consistent Fantasy Floor: Tagovailoa has provided a stable fantasy floor over the past two seasons, averaging 18.4 fantasy points per game in 2022 and 16.7 in 2023. With the same supporting cast, similar production can be expected in 2024.
- ADP Analysis: Tagovailoa’s ADP at QB14, behind Jared Goff and Brock Purdy, reflects concerns about his injury history and lack of rushing upside. However, given his favorable situation, he offers solid value in this range if you’re willing to overlook those concerns.
- Final Verdict: If you’re comfortable with Tagovailoa’s injury history, he’s a strong pick in the mid-rounds, offering QB1 potential in a high-powered offense. However, if those concerns give you pause, you might consider passing on a quarterback in this range altogether.
PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for Tua Tagovailoa
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis. Since Tagovailoa is ranked outside the top 75 in the PFN Consensus Rankings, we’ve listed the consensus QB rankings instead.
11) Jordan Love, QB | Green Bay Packers
12) Kirk Cousins, QB | Atlanta Falcons
13) Jayden Daniels, QB | Washington Commanders
14) Caleb Williams, QB | Chicago Bears
15) Jared Goff, QB | Detroit Lions
16) Tua Tagovailoa, QB | Miami Dolphins
17) Justin Herbert, QB | Los Angeles Chargers
18) Trevor Lawrence, QB | Jacksonville Jaguars
19) Aaron Rodgers, QB | New York Jets
20) Matthew Stafford, QB | Los Angeles Rams
21) Deshaun Watson, QB | Cleveland Browns
Tua Tagovailoa’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
Tagovailoa’s durability concerns were finally silenced a bit with him playing in all 17 games in 2023, and the results were subsequently pretty exceptional. He led the league with 4,624 passing yards while throwing 29 TDs on his way to a QB9 overall finish in 2023.
It can be easy to credit Tagovailoa’s elite playmakers or great offensive scheme to diminish his fantasy success, but that would feel like a bit of a disservice to how effective the former Alabama product was last year.
The advanced analytics numbers speak to Tagovailoa’s strengths as he had the lowest time to throw (2.36 seconds) in the NFL. His exceptional pre and post-snap processing, great anticipation working the intermediate portion of the field, and flashes of pinpoint accuracy all speak to how he led the league in passing in 2023.
One may assume the abundance of screen passes to get the ball out of his hands quickly would lead to Tagovailoa having a diminished air yards per attempt mark last year, but actually, his average (5.1) ranked second behind San Francisco 49ers QB Brock Purdy.
Despite not being renowned for his arm strength, Tagovailoa attempted more passing attempts (seven) that traveled 50+ yards down the field than any other quarterback in the NFL in 2023.
Tagovailoa wasn’t simply dinking and dunking his way down the field by letting Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and De’Von Achane do all of the work with yards after the catch. These numbers suggest he is actively threatening opposing defenses on all three levels of the field consistently. Tagovailoa’s mastery of this offensive scheme is a big component of why Miami’s passing game is explosive.
Admittedly, Tagovailoa’s struggles against teams with a winning record last year were a bit eyebrow-raising, throwing for under 240 yards in four out of their six games against teams above .500. Yet, there is some noise to these numbers with other factors like makeshift offensive line coming into play.
The additions of Odell Beckham Jr. and Jonnu Smith via free agency and rookie WRs Malik Washington and Tahj Washington from the 2024 NFL Draft could have a small positive impact on Tagovailoa’s fantasy outlook this year. Ultimately, though, this offense will still feature the same cast of characters we have become accustomed to over the last two seasons.
Based on what we’ve seen from Tagovailoa in this offensive scheme, he is certainly in the QB1 conversation this upcoming season.
Speaking of the last two years, Tagovailoa has given a consistent fantasy floor when on the field, averaging 18.4 fantasy points per game (PPG) in 2022 and 16.7 in 2023. With the same ensemble returning in 2024, there is little reason to expect Tagovailoa won’t put up fairly similar numbers on a per-game basis this season.
Is Tagovailoa a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?
Tagovailoa’s ADP currently sits at No. 106 overall as the QB14 off the board in fantasy drafts. For some additional context, he is currently being drafted behind Jared Goff and Brock Purdy toward the tail end of the eighth round of fantasy drafts.
I have to imagine some of Tagovailoa’s injury history, lack of rushing upside, and struggles against better opponents are pushing him slightly down the board because few quarterbacks are in a better situation entering the 2024 NFL season.
If you remove those durability concerns, Tagovailoa certainly deserves to be selected in this range. Yet, if those concerns are enough to scare you off, then I imagine you will pass on a quarterback in this range altogether.
