Last year, the Indianapolis Colts offense felt like a bit of a fantasy football mystery heading into the 2023 season. Well, after the addition of dynamic rookie WR Adonai Mitchell and the limited sample size we got from QB Anthony Richardson last year, Indy’s offense still feels like a bit of a fantasy mystery heading into the 2024 campaign.
What can fantasy managers expect from Mitchell in his first NFL season?
Should You Select Adonai Mitchell at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 169th Overall (WR62)
- Passing-Game Contributors: Michael Pittman Jr. is the clear WR1 in the Colts’ offense, with 109 receptions for 1,152 yards and four touchdowns in 2023. Josh Downs had moments as a rookie, particularly with Gardner Minshew, but doesn’t have the WR2 role locked down. Alec Pierce struggled mightily, making room for Mitchell to step in.
- Mitchell’s Prospect Profile: Mitchell enters the NFL with ideal size (6’2”, 205 pounds) and vertical speed (4.34-second 40-yard dash), making him a perfect fit as an outside playmaker in the Colts’ offense. He also showcases fluidity and creativity as a route runner, allowing him to consistently create separation.
- Snap Share Opportunity: If Mitchell can secure a significant snap share, he should easily surpass Alec Pierce’s underwhelming production of 32 receptions for 514 yards. His physical tools and schematic fit set him up for a potentially productive rookie year.
- Volume Uncertainty: While Mitchell has the talent and opportunity to be fantasy-relevant, the volume of targets he will receive is uncertain, especially with Anthony Richardson’s limited experience as a passer and the presence of Pittman and Downs.
- ADP Analysis: Mitchell’s current ADP of WR62 puts him alongside players like Joshua Palmer, Xavier Legette, and Jerry Jeudy. His explosive playmaking ability and route-running savvy make him a high-upside option, but his target volume is a question mark.
- Final Verdict: Mitchell offers significant upside at his current ADP, especially for fantasy managers looking for a late-round flier with WR2 potential. While there’s risk involved due to the uncertainty of Richardson’s passing and the competition for targets, Mitchell’s talent makes him a worthwhile pick in the 13th-14th round. If you prefer a safer option, consider a more established veteran like Jakobi Meyers, but Mitchell’s ceiling makes him an intriguing choice as your WR5.
PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for Adonai Mitchell
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis. Since Mitchell is ranked outside the top 75 in the PFN Consensus Rankings, we’ve listed the consensus WR rankings instead.
51) Tyler Lockett, WR | Seattle Seahawks
52) Christian Watson, WR | Green Bay Packers
53) Mike Williams, WR | New York Jets
54) Josh Downs, WR | Indianapolis Colts
55) Romeo Doubs, WR | Green Bay Packers
56) Adonai Mitchell, WR | Indianapolis Colts
57) Brandin Cooks, WR | Dallas Cowboys
58) Jerry Jeudy, WR | Cleveland Browns
59) Khalil Shakir, WR | Buffalo Bills
60) Rashid Shaheed, WR | New Orleans Saints
61) Joshua Palmer, WR | Los Angeles Chargers
Adonai Mitchell’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
Let’s start by taking a look at the other passing-game contributors on this Colts’ offense, shall we?
Michael Pittman Jr. enters the 2024 season as the unquestioned alpha in Indianapolis’ WR room. His 109 receptions for 1,152 yards and four scores from 156 targets puts him firmly atop the pass-catching pecking order.
Yet, the situation behind Pittman isn’t one that should scare fantasy managers away from Mitchell having a productive rookie year. Sure, Josh Downs had his fair share of moments as a rookie and should have a consistent role as a slot option. Yet, his best games were with Gardner Minshew under center, and he doesn’t exactly have the WR2 role locked down.
Don’t even get me started on Alec Pierce, whose immense snap share from last season is sure to evaporate with Mitchell now on the roster after posting a brutal 0.87 yards per route run in 2023.
Mitchell entered this draft process with a somewhat polarizing prospect profile. His ideal size (6’2”, 205 pounds) and vertical speed (4.34-second 40-yard dash) give him an immediate opportunity to operate as an outside vertical playmaker.
In addition, Mitchell flashed exceptional fluidity and creativity as a route runner to consistently create separation at the breakpoint. This fit from a schematic standpoint is outstanding for both Richardson and the Colts’ offense.
If Mitchell is on the football field over 90% of the time like Pierce was last season, fantasy managers should expect Mitchell to significantly outproduce Pierce’s production of just 32 receptions for 514 yards.
The volume is a bit tricky to pinpoint for Mitchell entering his rookie year, but the snap share opportunity, perfect schematic fit, great physical tools, and route-running nuance all set him up for a fantasy-relevant role in 2024.
Is Mitchell a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?
Mitchell’s ADP currently sits at No. 169 overall (WR62 off the board). For some context, Mitchell is being drafted behind other receivers like Joshua Palmer, Xavier Legette, and Jerry Jeudy.
There’s no denying Mitchell’s physical talent as a prospect entering the league. It’s really his target volume that is the biggest question mark.
Mitchell’s explosive vertical speed, route-running savvy, and excellent hands give him the skills of a potential high-end fantasy WR2. Yet, we can’t really reasonably project what his production will be with Richardson’s limited sample size as a passer and the target competition present in Indianapolis’ offense.
Mitchell will undoubtedly have his big fantasy performances when Richardson can connect on the deep downfield shots this offense can generate. Yet, we simply don’t know how often Richardson will be able to hit those shots.
If you’re looking for upside in the 13th-14th round, I like Mitchell far more than the other names he is currently being drafted around. If you want to take a safer veteran option who can guarantee you a fantasy floor as a Flex option, you may want to roll with Meyers in this range.
Personally, I’m a big believer in the talent. Mitchell’s current price tag means I’d rather have his potential upside than worry about his weekly floor as the WR5 on my roster.