The Houston Texans‘ dynamic receiving trio of Stefon Diggs, Nico Collins, and Tank Dell has made Dalton Schultz a bit of an overlooked commodity by the fantasy football community heading into the 2024 NFL season.
What can fantasy managers expect from Schultz heading into his second year with the Texans?
Should You Select Dalton Schultz at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 125th Overall (TE14)
- Consistent Production: Since 2020, Schultz has consistently been among the top tight ends in terms of receptions, trailing only elite options like Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, T.J. Hockenson, and Evan Engram. His 59 receptions for 635 yards and five touchdowns in 2023 earned him a TE10 finish, marking his fourth straight top-12 fantasy season.
- Impact of Target Competition: The emergence of Nico Collins and Tank Dell, along with the addition of Stefon Diggs, increases the competition for targets in Houston. Schultz saw 88 targets in 2023, but that number could decrease with Diggs commanding a significant share of the passing game.
- Red-Zone Usage: Schultz was heavily utilized in the red zone, seeing the sixth-most targets among tight ends with 13. However, with Diggs now in the mix, Schultz’s red-zone opportunities could become more limited, impacting his touchdown potential.
- Volume Concerns: Schultz’s fantasy value has been driven by consistent volume, with 88+ targets in each of the last four seasons. If his target share drops in 2024 due to the crowded receiving corps, his fantasy production could suffer.
- Potential for Inconsistency: In 2023, Schultz had five games with fewer than four fantasy points in full-PPR formats. The presence of Diggs may lead to more games where Schultz’s involvement is minimized, resulting in potential fantasy dud performances.
- ADP Analysis: Schultz’s current ADP of TE14 in the 11th round suggests that fantasy managers are cautious about his role in a crowded offense. While his track record makes him a reliable streaming option, his upside may be limited compared to other tight ends in this range.
- Final Verdict: Schultz offers a solid fantasy floor as a veteran tight end with consistent production, but his ceiling is capped by the presence of multiple talented receivers in Houston. He’s a serviceable pick in the 11th round if you’re looking for a dependable option at the position, but don’t expect elite numbers in 2024.
PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for Dalton Schultz
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis. Since Schultz is ranked outside the top 75 in the PFN Consensus Rankings, we’ve listed the consensus TE rankings instead.
9) David Njoku, TE | Cleveland Browns
10) Jake Ferguson, TE | Dallas Cowboys
11) Brock Bowers, TE | Las Vegas Raiders
12) Dallas Goedert, TE | Philadelphia Eagles
13) T.J. Hockenson, TE | Minnesota Vikings
14) Dalton Schultz, TE | Houston Texans
15) Cole Kmet, TE | Chicago Bears
16) Pat Freiermuth, TE | Pittsburgh Steelers
17) Luke Musgrave, TE | Green Bay Packers
18) Taysom Hill, TE | New Orleans Saints
19) Cade Otton, TE | Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Dalton Schultz’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
Since 2020, only Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, T.J. Hockenson, and Evan Engram have more receptions than Schultz at the tight end position. When you realize his high floor of production puts him in the range of some elite fantasy options at the position, you quickly realize how underappreciated Schultz is in fantasy circles.
Schultz’s 59 receptions for 635 yards and five scores earned him a fourth-straight top-12 fantasy finish as the TE10 in 2023. The outstanding play of quarterback C.J. Stroud and the emergence of Collins and Dell actually provided more target competition than expected for the veteran tight end’s first year in Houston — which could actually make his 2023 production feel like a slight disappointment.
Schultz saw the sixth-most targets in the red zone among tight ends last year with 13, which was actually one more than San Francisco 49ers TE George Kittle in the red area.
Yet, Schultz’s 88 targets overall in 2023 could actually drop a bit with the arrival of Diggs in Houston. The only player to see more targets than Diggs since 2020 is Davante Adams, which makes determining the target distribution amongst this collection of talented pass-catchers a very tricky endeavor heading into 2024.
Even without Diggs on the roster last year, there were games where Schultz was virtually invisible, scoring fewer than four fantasy points in full-PPR formats on five occasions in 2023.
Is this necessarily his fault? No, the presence of Collins and Dell Bobby Slowik’s offensive scheme sometimes dictated the ball go elsewhere. But that doesn’t mean Schultz isn’t going to have a similar amount — if not more — fantasy dud performances this upcoming year with Diggs in town.
I’d argue much of Schultz’s fantasy value over the years has been driven by his reliable volume of work in the passing game. He has seen 88+ targets in four straight seasons, which makes me question what his fantasy value will look like if that volume drops by a noteworthy amount.
Ultimately, Schultz is a reliable and productive veteran TE with a lengthy track record of quality fantasy production. I’m just a bit skeptical about the volume he is going to see in 2024.
Is Schultz a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?
Schultz’s ADP of No. 125 overall as the TE14 off the board should feel insulting for a player who has finished as a top-12 fantasy TE over the last four years, but he still finds himself being drafted after Dallas Goedert at the moment.
Admittedly, the addition of a Pro Bowl talent at WR to a roster that already featured two productive receivers doesn’t exactly suggest Schultz will see a larger target share in 2024.
Schultz has the type of fantasy floor that makes him a nice streaming option if you punt the position on draft day, but he doesn’t possess the elite upside of other names in the range.
If you want a reliable starting tight end in the 11th round of your draft, Schultz is a serviceable pick.
