After watching his targets, receptions, and receiving yards drop for three straight years, perhaps WR Diontae Johnson’s change of situation from the Pittsburgh Steelers to the Carolina Panthers is one that was necessary to refresh his fantasy football value ahead of his sixth season.
Does Johnson still have the type of top-10 fantasy WR upside we saw from him in the past with his new team for the 2024 NFL season?
Should You Select Diontae Johnson at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 89th Overall (WR38)
- New Opportunity in Carolina: After three straight years of declining targets, receptions, and yards in Pittsburgh, Johnson’s move to the Carolina Panthers could provide the refresh his fantasy value needs. The Panthers’ lack of receivers who can generate separation was evident last season, and Johnson’s arrival addresses that need.
- Role in Carolina’s Offense: Johnson steps into an offense where the top competition for targets includes an aging Adam Thielen and the underwhelming Jonathan Mingo. Thielen’s 137 targets and 103 receptions from last year make him the biggest competitor, but Johnson’s ability to separate could make him the primary target for Bryce Young.
- 2023 Production Dip: Johnson’s production dipped last year, with just 51 receptions, partly due to a hamstring injury and the inconsistent quarterback play in Pittsburgh. Despite these setbacks, his ability to create separation remained intact, making him a prime candidate for a bounce-back year in a new offense.
- Proven Track Record: Before last season, Johnson consistently saw 140+ targets and finished inside the top 30 at his position for three consecutive years. His ability to earn targets and produce in a struggling offense makes him a valuable fantasy asset when healthy.
- High Ceiling in Carolina: If Thielen could produce a top-20 WR fantasy season on a struggling Panthers’ offense last year, Johnson, with his superior separation ability and a fresh start, could realistically achieve a similar ceiling in 2024.
- ADP Analysis: Johnson’s ADP of WR38 at the end of the eighth round positions him as a WR4 on draft day, presenting excellent value, especially in full-PPR formats. His potential to absorb a significant portion of Thielen’s volume in the passing game makes him a savvy pick in this range.
- Final Verdict: Johnson’s move to Carolina gives him a great chance to revitalize his fantasy value. With the opportunity to become Bryce Young’s go-to receiver, Johnson offers a high floor and potential WR2 upside at a WR4 price. He’s a strong draft value in the eighth round, particularly in PPR leagues.
PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for Diontae Johnson
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis. Since Johnson is ranked outside the top 75 in the PFN Consensus Rankings, we’ve listed the consensus WR rankings instead.
32) Tank Dell, WR | Houston Texans
33) George Pickens, WR | Pittsburgh Steelers
34) Ladd McConkey, WR | Los Angeles Chargers
35) Jayden Reed, WR | Green Bay Packers
36) Chris Godwin, WR | Tampa Bay Buccaneers
37) Diontae Johnson, WR | Carolina Panthers
38) Brian Thomas Jr., WR | Jacksonville Jaguars
39) Hollywood Brown, WR | Kansas City Chiefs
40) DeAndre Hopkins, WR | Tennessee Titans
41) Calvin Ridley, WR | Tennessee Titans
42) Xavier Worthy, WR | Kansas City Chiefs
Diontae Johnson’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
If you happened to catch much Panthers football last year, you probably noticed that there weren’t many receivers generating separation for rookie quarterback Bryce Young. The top pass-catching options at Young’s disposal last year were Adam Thielen, Jonathan Mingo, and DJ Chark. No offense to any of them, but this didn’t exactly set up Carolina’s rookie signal-caller for a ton of success early on.
Fortunately for Young, the Panthers aggressively traded for Johnson, who is widely renowned for his above-average separation ability. This could help unlock Young’s true potential in the NFL by giving him an actual go-to receiver in passing-down situations.
Chark’s 35 receptions on 66 targets from last year are off the roster, and Mingo generated just 43 receptions on 85 targets in 2023, which doesn’t exactly suggest much optimism. This leaves Thielen’s 137 targets and 103 receptions as Johnson’s biggest competition to an alpha target share this upcoming season.
Sure, the selection of the physically imposing Xavier Legette with the final pick of the first round in the 2024 NFL Draft should have a role in this offense too, but Johnson projects as the best veteran option in this passing game heading into 2024.
Johnson’s production dipped a bit last year after catching a career-low 51 passes after missing some time due to a hamstring injury. It also didn’t bode well that there was a rotating door of quarterbacks under center. Then there is the “Matt Canada effect” that did pretty much everyone no favors from a fantasy perspective.
My goal is certainly not to create excuses for a player who had multiple instances of inexcusable lack of effort and his fair share of concentration drops. But Johnson’s decline in production certainly didn’t feel like it came from losing a step.
Johnson’s injuries and target share dropping from 27% to 23.5% likely had a bigger impact on his fantasy production last year than a significant drop in performance.
Despite the ineptitude of the Steelers’ offense for the majority of his career, Johnson has proven to be a very productive wide receiver with a healthy target volume. Before last season, Johnson saw 140+ targets and finished inside the top 30 at his position for three consecutive years.
He’s still a capable run-after-catch threat who instantly provides Carolina’s offense with a consistent separator when dialed in.
If the aforementioned Thielen can produce a top-20 WR fantasy season on a struggling offense, then Johnson realistically could have a similar ceiling in 2024.
Is Johnson a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?
Johnson’s ADP currently resides at No. 89 overall at the end of the eighth round (WR38 off the board). This puts him in the same range as Ladd McConkey, Hollywood Brown, and DeAndre Hopkins.
If you’re higher on McConkey at this point, I don’t exactly blame you. However, I want to focus on the fact that Johnson is currently priced as a WR4 on draft day. This presents an excellent value in full-PPR formats, assuming Johnson can steal a significant amount of Thielen’s volume in the passing game.