There was fantasy football optimism surrounding Jacksonville Jaguars TE Evan Engram entering 2023, as he set a career-high with 73 catches in his first season with the franchise. But even the biggest believer in the veteran couldn’t have projected what happened last season.
After catching nine passes in Week 13 against the Cincinnati Bengals, Engram had matched that 73-catch total from the year prior — his best was yet to come. In three of Jacksonville’s final five games, Engram had double-digit receptions and scored three times. He caught at least four passes in all 17 games, proving himself as not only the most consistent Jaguars target but one of the most stable options in the league.
With Calvin Ridley now joining the Tennessee Titans and Zay Jones in Arizona, Engram might be more likely to see his role increase than decrease this year. Is he the best bargain at the position?
Evan Engram’s 2024 Fantasy Forecast
Engram put on a show in 2023, and it’s tough to forecast much regression entering this season. He caught 26 of 33 targets from Trevor Lawrence on third down, a conversion rate (78.8%) that indicates Lawrence’s comfort and volume (led the team in both categories with the departed Ridley ranking second) is more likely to grow than regress.
Looking at the Week 14 head-to-head tape.
TE Evan Engram. Multiple route tree. Worked all three levels of the field.
Concepts to beat zone coverage. Plus, the crossers/unders on 3rd down to win the man matchups (below).
Engram: 11-162-2TDs (on 15 targets). pic.twitter.com/2L6UuQlm4P
— Matt Bowen (@MattBowen41) January 6, 2023
Engram turns 30 years old in September and hasn’t caught more than four touchdowns in a season since scoring six times as a rookie (one TD every 23.4 catches and 30.1 targets with Jacksonville). Volume is Engram’s path to posting another Tier 2 season at the position, and managers are drafting him in the sixth round for his consistency, not his ceiling.
For parts of this offseason, Engram’s ADP has been fluctuating between that of George Kittle and Kyle Pitts, typically settling roughly a round behind.
I don’t get it. At best, I’d give Kittle a chance at posting a similar year-end stat line in terms of fantasy points to Engram, but in a very sporadic fashion, that is more maddening than helpful.
I understand the excitement surrounding Pitts with Kirk Cousins now in town, but I prefer to take on risk in the later stages of the draft. By locking in a player I feel comfortable with weekly — like Engam at a onesie position — I allow myself to swing for the fences at the other skill positions to find a diamond in the rough.
If you draft Pitts, you open yourself up to considering a second tight end or at least the potential for needing one if he continues to underwhelm like in seasons past.
I don’t think that floor is in the range of outcomes for Engram as the focal point of an offense that ranked fifth in pass rate over expectation last season (Kittle’s 49ers: 17th).
Similar to last season, the Jags don’t have much in the way of weather concerns during the second half of the season and end the fantasy year with the Las Vegas Raiders and Titans, two defenses that don’t exactly strike fear in the hearts of most.
Engram was a league-winner last season due to the price he was available at on draft day. While the cost is greater this season, I see no reason why he can’t be a key cog in fantasy championships again in 2024.
Derek Tate’s Analysis of Evan Engram’s Fantasy Outlook
- Consistent Production: Despite the excitement surrounding other tight ends entering the 2024 NFL season, no tight end saw more targets in 2023 than Engram. His 114 receptions for 963 yards and four TDs on 143 targets led to a TE2 overall finish in full-PPR formats. Even on a per-game basis, Engram was the TE4 with 13.5 points per game, showcasing his consistent fantasy value.
- Role in the Offense: Engram’s role in the Jacksonville offense remains secure despite the additions of Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis. Both new receivers are expected to take on more outside and vertical responsibilities, leaving Engram’s slot-based role largely intact. His average depth of target (5.0 yards) and 516 yards after the catch (second among tight ends) underline his value as a reliable target for Trevor Lawrence.
- Past Performance: Engram’s consistent performance over his two seasons with the Jaguars highlights his importance in the offense. In 2023, he had 143 targets, 114 receptions, 963 yards, and four TDs, ranking him as the TE2. In 2022, he posted 73 receptions for 766 yards and four TDs on 98 targets, finishing as the TE5.
- Impact of New Additions: While the departure of Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones frees up targets, Thomas Jr.’s development as a rookie will play a crucial role in determining how many targets Engram will see. Given Thomas’s raw route-running ability, it’s likely that Engram will remain a favored target, especially early in the season.
- ADP Analysis: Engram’s current ADP of No. 67 overall in the sixth round as the TE8 represents excellent value for a player who has produced back-to-back top-five fantasy seasons at the position. With a strong role in a high-powered offense, Engram offers a safe and productive option at a reasonable draft price.