Dak Prescott was the driving force behind the highest-scoring offense in the NFL last season and was in the MVP conversation during the back half of the 2023 campaign.
After losing a pair of starting offensive linemen and his starting running back this offseason, can fantasy football managers expect another big fantasy season from Prescott in 2024?
Should You Select Dak Prescott at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 74th Overall (QB9)
- Impressive 2023 Performance: Prescott’s 4,516 passing yards and 36 TD passes, along with 242 rushing yards and two scores, propelled him to a QB3 overall finish in 2023. This success was notable, especially considering the lack of elite options in the passing game outside of CeeDee Lamb.
- Led the League’s Top-Scoring Offense: The Cowboys were the highest-scoring offense in the NFL last season, largely due to Prescott’s excellent play. He led the team to 71 red-zone trips, the most in the league, and was second in third-down conversions with 75 through the air.
- High Passing Volume and Efficiency: Prescott ranked inside the top five in passing attempts (fourth), passing yards (third), and passing touchdowns (first) among quarterbacks. His 7.7 air yards per attempt suggest that he was effective in pushing the ball downfield, not just relying on checkdowns.
- Support from Pass-Catchers: With CeeDee Lamb, Jake Ferguson, and Brandin Cooks as his primary weapons, Prescott has a solid trio to distribute the ball to in 2024. However, this group might not be among the top 10 pass-catching units in the NFL, which could impact Prescott’s overall ceiling.
- Offensive Line and Running Game Concerns: The loss of starting center Tyler Biadasz and left tackle Tyron Smith could affect the offense, particularly the running game. If the ground game struggles, Prescott may need to rely more on his arm, which could be a double-edged sword for his fantasy output.
- Contract Dispute and Impact: CeeDee Lamb’s ongoing contract dispute could add some uncertainty to the offense, but assuming it’s resolved before the season starts, Prescott remains a strong option at QB.
- ADP Analysis: Despite his stellar 2023 season, Prescott is being drafted as the QB9 overall in the seventh round, behind players like Joe Burrow, Jordan Love, and C.J. Stroud. This lower ADP reflects some concerns about his year-to-year volatility and the potential impact of losing key offensive linemen.
- Final Verdict: Prescott’s proven track record of finishing as a top-eight fantasy QB when playing at least 16 games makes him a solid value at his current seventh-round ADP. While his rushing production may not be elite, his ability to lead a high-scoring offense makes him worth the investment as your starting quarterback in 2024.
PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for Dak Prescott
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis. Since Prescott is ranked outside the top 75 in the PFN Consensus Rankings, we’ve listed the consensus QB rankings instead.
4) Lamar Jackson, QB | Baltimore Ravens
5) Anthony Richardson, QB | Indianapolis Colts
6) C.J. Stroud, QB | Houston Texans
7) Joe Burrow, QB | Cincinnati Bengals
8) Kyler Murray, QB | Arizona Cardinals
9) Dak Prescott, QB | Dallas Cowboys
10) Brock Purdy, QB | San Francisco 49ers
11) Jordan Love, QB | Green Bay Packers
12) Kirk Cousins, QB | Atlanta Falcons
13) Jayden Daniels, QB | Washington Commanders
14) Caleb Williams, QB | Chicago Bears
Dak Prescott’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
Prescott’s 4,516 passing yards and 36 TD passes to go with 242 rushing yards and another two scores — which led to a QB3 overall finish — may have felt like a bit of a surprise considering the lack of elite options in the passing game outside of CeeDee Lamb.
Due to the struggles of running back Tony Pollard throughout the year, the league’s highest-scoring offense in 2023 was largely led by Prescott’s excellent play.
The Dallas Cowboys‘ offense generated 71 trips to the red zone last year, which led the league in 2023. Prescott was also excellent on third downs with 75 conversions through the air, ranking second behind Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers.
The continuous long drives helped Prescott finish inside the top five at the quarterback position in passing attempts (fourth), passing yards (third), and passing touchdowns (first). Additionally, Prescott had a very healthy 7.7 air yards per attempt, which suggests Prescott wasn’t simply throwing checkdowns all day to help produce these gaudy numbers.
The emergence of Jake Ferguson at tight end and the always-productive veteran WR Brandin Cooks certainly contributed alongside Lamb, which gives Prescott a nice trio to distribute the ball to this upcoming season. Despite the excellence we saw from Lamb last year, I’m not sure anyone would put this trio in their top 10 pass-catching groups in the NFL.
Furthermore, the team lost both starting center Tyler Biadasz and long-time left tackle Tyron Smith this offseason, which will impact the offense in some capacity this year. The running game doesn’t exactly feel formidable, with Ezekiel Elliott returning for his second stint with the team after posting a career-low 642 rushing yards and 3.49 yards per carry last season.
If the running game struggles to get going in 2024, that could lead the Cowboys to rely even further on Prescott’s arm to generate scoring production. That isn’t necessarily terrible, but not having a reliable running game could lower the team’s offensive production as a whole.
Ultimately, assuming Lamb’s contract dispute doesn’t run into the start of the season, Prescott is still a solid starting quarterback option for your fantasy team in 2024.
Is Prescott a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?
Fantasy managers don’t appear to be convinced by Prescott’s excellent 2023 season. His ADP currently sits at No. 74 overall, going off the board as the QB9 overall behind Joe Burrow, Jordan Love, and C.J. Stroud.
Prescott has definitely been a bit volatile year over year concerning his fantasy production, which is likely why his ADP is in the seventh round at the moment. It also doesn’t help matters that his top wideout is in a bit of a contract dispute.
Additionally, Prescott’s rushing production doesn’t really feel like it’s among the elite dual-threat options at the position.
Ultimately, the last three times Prescott has played at least 16 games in a season, he has finished as a top-eight fantasy QB, which makes him worth the seventh-round price tag on draft day.