The Pittsburgh Steelers‘ passing offense hasn’t been all that exciting over the last few years due to a combination of Matt Canada serving as the offensive coordinator and the starting triumvirate of Kenny Pickett, Mitchell Trubisky, and Mason Rudolph leading the charge under center. Yet, George Pickens has still managed to be a productive fantasy football option during his first two years in the NFL.
Can fantasy managers expect a breakout year from Pickens with potentially improved quarterback play in 2024?
Should You Select George Pickens at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 57th Overall (WR28)
- Steady Improvement in 2023: Despite a WR29 finish last year, Pickens showed growth with increased targets (106), receptions (63), receiving yards (1,140), and touchdowns (five) compared to his rookie season. This suggests a positive trajectory, even within a stagnant Pittsburgh offense.
- High Upside with Risky Floor: Pickens’ fantasy production in the final three games of 2023 showcased his immense upside, including a WR2 finish in Week 16, but also highlighted his inconsistency, as seen in his zero-target Week 18 performance.
- Opportunity as the Focal Point: With Diontae Johnson traded to the Panthers, Pickens is set to be the focal point of the Steelers’ passing attack in 2024. This could lead to an increased target share, which would significantly boost his fantasy potential.
- Impact of New Offensive Coordinator and Quarterbacks: Arthur Smith’s run-heavy offensive scheme and the addition of quarterbacks Russell Wilson and Justin Fields add uncertainty to Pickens’ 2024 outlook. While Wilson’s willingness to take deep shots could favor Pickens, Smith’s track record with wide receivers in his offenses doesn’t guarantee top-tier production.
- Past WR Production in Smith’s Offenses: The top fantasy wide receiver in Smith’s offenses since 2019 includes A.J. Brown’s WR12 finish in 2020, but more recently, Drake London’s WR37 finish in 2023 raises concerns about Pickens’ ceiling in this system.
- Elite Target Share Potential: With limited proven options in Pittsburgh’s passing game, Pickens is in line for a potentially elite target share, making him a valuable fantasy asset with significant upside if the offense performs well.
- ADP Analysis: Pickens’ ADP at No. 57 overall as the WR28 in the fifth round reflects his potential to step up as the alpha receiver in Pittsburgh. While the offensive scheme under Smith raises some questions, Pickens’ talent and opportunity make him a worthwhile pick in this range, with a strong floor and the potential for a breakout season.
- Final Verdict: Pickens has shown the talent to be a top-20 receiver, and with Johnson gone, he is set to be the primary target in Pittsburgh’s offense. His ADP in the fifth round represents a solid value, offering both a safe floor and the potential for significant upside if everything falls into place in 2024.
PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for George Pickens
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis.
68) Keenan Allen, WR | Chicago Bears
69) Joe Burrow, QB | Cincinnati Bengals
70) Evan Engram, TE | Jacksonville Jaguars
71) Tank Dell, WR | Houston Texans
72) Jonathon Brooks, RB | Carolina Panthers
73) George Pickens, WR | Pittsburgh Steelers
74) Kyler Murray, QB | Arizona Cardinals
75) Brian Robinson Jr., RB | Washington Commanders
76) Tyjae Spears, RB | Tennessee Titans
77) Ladd McConkey, WR | Los Angeles Chargers
78) George Kittle, TE | San Francisco 49ers
George Pickens’ Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
It may be tough to believe this because of his underwhelming WR29 finish last year, but Pickens saw his targets (106), receptions (63), receiving yards (1,140), and touchdowns (five) increase from his rookie year.
Perhaps nothing acts as a better snapshot of Pickens’ immense upside paired with his nerve-racking floor than the final three games of his 2023 campaign.
Pickens’ Fantasy Production Weeks 16-18
- Week 16: 6 targets, 4 receptions, 195 yards, 2 TDs (WR2)
- Week 17: 9 targets, 7 receptions, 131 yards (WR9)
- Week 18: 0 targets, 0 receptions, 0 yards
One factor that has likely held Pickens back from reaching his true fantasy potential was the presence of Diontae Johnson, who was traded to the Carolina Panthers this offseason. Johnson’s targets dropped from an average of eight per game in 2022 to six in 2023 due to Pickens’ expanded role in the passing attack.
Now with Johnson no longer on the roster, Pickens should enter the 2024 season as the unquestioned focal point of the passing attack. Yet, his projection feels a bit difficult to pinpoint with new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith — who is well known for wanting to the run ball — and two new quarterbacks, Russell Wilson and Justin Fields, in the mix for the starting quarterback gig.
Wilson tends to put the ball outside the numbers and isn’t afraid to put the ball into contested catch situations, which is something Pickens does at an exceptional level. Unfortunately, Smith’s offensive scheme hasn’t produced a ton of top fantasy wideouts.
Top Fantasy WR in Full-PPR Formats in Smith’s Offenses Since 2019
- 2019: A.J. Brown (WR21)
- 2020: A.J. Brown (WR12)
- 2021: Russell Gage (WR38)
- 2022: Drake London (WR31)
- 2023: Drake London (WR37)
Of course, there is plenty of context required with these numbers, with QBs like Ryan Tannehill, Marcus Mariota, and Desmond Ridder leading these passing games, but Smith’s offenses haven’t exactly produced great passing production over the years.
Yet, the lack of proven options in this Steelers passing attack outside of Pickens — names like Roman Wilson, Van Jefferson, and Quez Watkins — give him an inside track to a potentially elite target share in 2024.
Ultimately, Pickens has the chance to take another sizeable jump up the fantasy rankings this upcoming season if the changes on the offensive side of the ball all work in favor of a more productive offense with improved quarterback play this season.
Is Pickens a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?
Pickens’ ADP currently sits at No. 57 overall, the WR28 off the board going in the fifth round right after Tee Higgins and Amari Cooper come off the board.
It is hard to imagine a scenario where Pickens sees fewer targets this year with Johnson out of town and his main target competition coming in the form of a rookie (Wilson). Yet, London’s WR37 finish last year in Atlanta in this offensive scheme does bring Pickens’ upside in this offense into question.
Pickens has flashed the talent to be a top-20 receiver in the league. Given his situation as a projected alpha target earner in this offense, Pickens has the type of projected floor with a real path to upside worth selecting in the fifth round.
