Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen will be forced to rely on pass-catchers other than Stefon Diggs or Gabe Davis this upcoming season after the team parted ways with both starting receivers this offseason. Does this make Dalton Kincaid a leading candidate for a breakout fantasy football season in 2024?
Should You Select Dalton Kincaid at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 50th Overall (TE5)
- Solid Rookie Season: Kincaid’s rookie season may have been overshadowed by Sam LaPorta’s TE1 finish, but his 73 receptions for 673 yards and two touchdowns still earned him a TE11 overall finish in 2023, making him a low-end TE1 option in fantasy.
- Impact of Dawson Knox: Kincaid’s production was noticeably affected by Dawson Knox’s presence on the field. When Knox was active, Kincaid’s usage and fantasy output dipped significantly, as shown by his TE20 overall rank through the first seven weeks of the season. However, when Knox was inactive from Weeks 8-12, Kincaid thrived, finishing as the TE4 overall during that span.
- Versatile Role in the Offense: Kincaid was used primarily as a big slot receiver, lining up in the slot on 49.1% of his snaps, which was the second-most for TEs in 2023. His ability to line up all over the formation, including outside and inline, showcases his versatility and potential for an expanded role in 2024.
- Target Opportunity: The departure of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis opens up a massive 230 targets, 150 receptions, and 1,900 receiving yards in the Bills’ offense. Kincaid saw 91 targets last season, and with an expanded role and more time on the field, he has a plausible path to seeing over 100 targets and a potential 25% target share in 2024.
- ADP Analysis: Kincaid’s current ADP of No. 50 overall, going off the board as the TE5, positions him behind only LaPorta, Mark Andrews, Trey McBride, and Travis Kelce. Given Kincaid’s dynamic skill set, his potential for an expanded role, and the high-powered nature of the Bills’ offense with Josh Allen under center, selecting Kincaid in the fifth round is a justifiable investment for fantasy managers.
- Final Verdict: Kincaid’s combination of elite pass-catching ability, versatility in the offense, and the opportunity for a significant target share in Buffalo’s offense makes him a strong candidate for a breakout season in 2024. His fifth-round ADP is well-deserved, and he offers the potential to deliver a top-tier fantasy season at the tight end position.
PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for Dalton Kincaid
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis.
62) Zack Moss, RB | Cincinnati Bengals
63) Najee Harris, RB | Pittsburgh Steelers
64) Rhamondre Stevenson, RB | New England Patriots
65) Jaylen Warren, RB | Pittsburgh Steelers
66) C.J. Stroud, QB | Houston Texans
67) Dalton Kincaid, TE | Buffalo Bills
68) Keenan Allen, WR | Chicago Bears
69) Joe Burrow, QB | Cincinnati Bengals
70) Evan Engram, TE | Jacksonville Jaguars
71) Tank Dell, WR | Houston Texans
72) Jonathon Brooks, RB | Carolina Panthers
Dalton Kincaid’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
Kincaid’s rookie campaign may feel like a bit of a disappointment when directly compared to another first year player at the same position — Sam LaPorta — finishing the year as the TE1 overall in fantasy football. Yet, Kincaid’s 73 receptions for 673 yards and two scores were still good enough for a TE11 overall finish in 2023, making him a low-end TE1 over in his first season in the NFL.
Kincaid flashed some of his elite pass-catching potential in moments throughout his rookie year, finishing as a top-eight fantasy TE in seven of his last 11 games of the year.
Where the issue truly lay for Kincaid in his rookie year was his frustrating usage on the field when Dawson Knox was active in 2023.
Dalton Kincaid’s Production Weeks 1-7 With Dawson Knox Active
- TE20 Overall: 25 receptions, 193 yards, 0 TDs
Dalton Kincaid’s Production Weeks 8-12 With Dawson Knox Inactive
- TE4 Overall: 31 receptions, 281, and 2 TDs
These splits suggest Knox was having some semblance of an impact on Kincaid’s production because the evidence is also apparent in the snap count, where Kincaid never saw fewer than 60% of the offensive snaps when Knox was inactive, but failed to hit that threshold on seven occasions when Knox was active.
Kincaid was utilized as a big slot option on 348 occasions last year, which was the second-most snaps in the slot at the TE position last year. That means 49.1% of his snaps coming from the slot left Knox to handle a lot of the inline duties.
To further that point, Kincaid lined up as the outside receiving threat (17%) almost as much as he lined up as a traditional inline tight end (20%).
If Knox remains the preferred inline tight end option in 2024, this could lead to more frustrating usage for Kincaid fantasy managers this upcoming season.
Yet, Kincaid’s role as a move TE all over the formation could be seen as a big positive for his fantasy upside in this Bills offense that features Khalil Shakir, Curtis Samuel, and rookie Keon Coleman heading into the season.
The departure of Diggs and Davis opens up over 230 targets, 150 receptions, and 1,900 yards worth of production in this passing offense.
Kincaid saw 91 targets last year. The opportunity to see north of 100 targets with an expanded role in the passing game and likely more time on the field in his second season means Kincaid has a plausible path to a 25% target share that could translate to an elite fantasy season in his second year.
Is Kincaid a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?
Kincaid’s ADP currently sits at No. 50 overall as the TE5 off of the board. Only LaPorta, Mark Andrews, Trey McBride, and Travis Kelce are currently going ahead of him in fantasy drafts.
The case can certainly be made for any of those players to produce a TE1 overall fantasy season in 2024, and I believe Kincaid’s dynamic skill set and the opportunity for an expanded role in a passing offense led by an MVP-caliber quarterback certainly give him the type of upside to warrant a fifth-round pick.