If not for a dreadful fumble on the doorstep of the end zone in the AFC Championship Game, Baltimore Ravens WR Zay Flowers had a very encouraging rookie season from a fantasy perspective.
Yet, can fantasy football managers realistically expect a big jump from Flowers into WR1 territory to help you win your league in 2024?
Should You Select Zay Flowers at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 54th Overall (WR25)
- Impressive Rookie Season: Flowers finished his rookie season with 77 receptions, 858 yards, and five touchdowns on 108 targets, resulting in a WR31 finish in full-PPR formats.
- Versatility and Separation: Flowers showcased his versatility with 29% of his snaps coming from the slot, and his ability to create separation with 2.27 yards per target, ranking seventh among wide receivers. His 391 yards after the catch highlight his YAC potential.
- Big-Play Threat: Flowers was tied for ninth in the NFL for receptions of 40+ yards, proving he’s more than just an underneath YAC threat. His ability to make explosive plays adds to his upside.
- Increased Role Likely: With Odell Beckham Jr. gone and a rookie like Devontez Walker entering the mix, Flowers is expected to see an even larger role in the Ravens’ offense in 2024, especially with Todd Monken as the offensive coordinator.
- Target Competition: While Mark Andrews will remain a red-zone threat, the overall target competition for Flowers doesn’t seem to be enough to hinder his potential breakout in his second season.
- ADP Analysis: Flowers is currently being drafted as the WR25 in the fifth round, behind players like DK Metcalf, DJ Moore, and Stefon Diggs. Given his likely increased target share and ceiling in the Ravens’ offense, he offers strong value at this ADP.
- Final Verdict: Flowers is poised for a breakout season in 2024 and is a strong selection in the fifth round of fantasy drafts. His combination of floor and ceiling makes him a valuable pick at his current ADP.
PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for Zay Flowers
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis.
44) DeVonta Smith, WR | Philadelphia Eagles
45) Cooper Kupp, WR | Los Angeles Rams
46) Lamar Jackson, QB | Baltimore Ravens
47) David Montgomery, RB | Detroit Lions
48) Aaron Jones, RB | Minnesota Vikings
49) Zay Flowers, WR | Baltimore Ravens
50) Tee Higgins, WR | Cincinnati Bengals
51) D’Andre Swift, RB | Chicago Bears
52) Malik Nabers, WR | New York Giants
53) Stefon Diggs, WR | Houston Texans
54) Trey McBride, TE | Arizona Cardinals
Zay Flowers’ Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
The historic rookie season we got from Los Angeles Rams WR Puka Nacua makes it easy to overlook just how encouraging Flowers’ 77 receptions for 858 yards and five scores on 108 targets were in 2023, good for a WR31 finish in full-PPR formats.
Flowers had a 68-yard touchdown called back against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 11 and didn’t play in the season finale because the Ravens had already locked up their home-field advantage by that point, which means these numbers could have been even better last year.
During his rookie year, Flowers showcased his formation versatility (29% of his snaps coming from the slot), separation ability (2.27 yards of separation per target, seventh among receivers), and YAC ability (391 yards after the catch) all feel like encouraging signs for a player entering his second season in the NFL.
Additionally, Flowers was among the league leaders at the WR position in manufactured touches, catching 23 screen passes last year, tied for third trailing behind just Tyreek Hill and Ja’Marr Chase. Still, he flashed the ability to win on the intermediate and third level of the football field in his rookie year. Flowers even scored on one of his eight carries for 56 yards last year to further showcase his designed touches role in this offense.
Yet, Flowers was so much more than just an underneath YAC threat. He was actually tied for the ninth most receptions to go for 40+ yards in the NFL last year with four such explosive plays in 2023. Even though those vertical shots connected occasionally, the argument can be made both Flowers and Lamar Jackson left a handful of plays on the field last year too.
Lamar Jackson and Zay Flowers weren't on the same page downfield in their first season together (through Week 10)
this is the extra level of production we are looking for pic.twitter.com/Jux8V1fNTR
— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) May 20, 2024
Sure, it’s not exciting to watch “plays that could’ve been” go unrealized. However, Flowers’ ability to create separation on all three levels of the football field, exceptional RAC ability, and guaranteed touches with offensive coordinator Todd Monken — who makes it a point to get the ball in his hands — should excite you about him potentially taking a big step into fantasy stardom in Year 2.
The team let Odell Beckham Jr. walk this offseason and brought in an unpolished rookie, North Carolina’s Devontez Walker, to contribute. Walker operates as an outside vertical threat and shouldn’t threaten Flowers’ role in this offense.
Mark Andrews will definitely be a hindrance to his TD output as the preferred target near the end zone, which was evident by the star TE seeing more red-zone targets than Flowers last season despite playing in seven fewer games.
Ultimately, there is target competition present for Flowers, but it’s not enough to threaten projecting an even bigger role for Flowers in 2024.
Is Flowers a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?
Flowers is currently coming off the board at No. 54 overall, the WR25 in full-PPR formats. This puts his price tag places him in the fifth round of fantasy drafts. He is currently being selected after DK Metcalf, DJ Moore, and Stefon Diggs.
I’d argue that Flowers is set to see the most targets of any of these players in 2024, which when paired with his upside in this offense paired with an MVP-caliber quarterback gives him a very nice fantasy ceiling to go with his proven floor in this offense.
Flowers is one of my breakout players of the 2024 NFL season, which makes him a slam-dunk selection in the fifth round of fantasy drafts.