Houston Texans WR Nico Collins’ first two seasons did not point to a third-year breakout. Based on last year’s performance, though, Collins sure looks like an outlier who is all kinds of legit. Tethered to C.J. Stroud, Collins is set up nicely. But will his opportunity be there with Stefon Diggs adding target competition to the mix? Should fantasy football managers spend a premium pick on Collins?
Nico Collins’ 2024 Fantasy Forecast
Based on historical analysis, Collins’ chances of breaking out last season were quite small. He failed to reach 525 receiving yards as a rookie and didn’t get there as a sophomore, either. This placed him in a bucket of receivers with an 83.5% bust rate, but 83.5% is not 100%. Outliers exist, and Collins sure looks like one of them.
We’ve seen untalented wide receivers splash for a short period in ideal circumstances before. Merely producing WR1 numbers for a single season doesn’t automatically make a receiver the real deal. Fortunately, Collins didn’t merely have a lucky streak. By every measure, he was really, really good at football.
It is clear after last season that Collins’ lack of production in his first two seasons was due to a lack of talent … it just wasn’t his talent that was lacking. Collins endured some of the worst QB play imaginable. He was strapped to the rocket ship that is C.J. Stroud and took off.
Last year, Collins caught 80 passes for 1,297 yards and eight touchdowns. He averaged 17.4 fantasy points per game, finishing as the overall WR7. He was one of the best values in fantasy.
I am a huge fan of Tank Dell and believe there is a real chance Dell ends up as the most valuable fantasy receiver on this team, but Dell was not a problem for Collins last season.
Collins actually averaged more points per game in their 10 games together (18.2) than in his five games without Dell (15.6). I don’t think there’s anything actionable about that fact, but it’s good to know nonetheless.
There is more good news: Collins was able to put together his fantastic 2023 campaign on just a 22.7% target share. That’s pretty low for a team’s WR1.
Due to Stroud’s rapid ascent to the ranks of the elite, Collins averaged 3.24 yards per route run, second in the league. His 11.9 yards per target was third. It was this level of efficiency that propelled him to a WR1 season.
No, there are some negatives. It would be fair to project Collins to be less efficient in 2024, but the question is whether he can offset that with more volume. In April, I would’ve said definitely. After the Texans traded for Stefon Diggs, now I’m not so sure.
My feelings on Diggs are well documented. There were clear signs of decline last season, and I think he’s the clear WR3 on this team. At the same time, he’s still Stefon Diggs. Clearly, the Texans don’t believe he’s completely finished.
At the very least, Diggs should still be able to operate proficiently near the line of scrimmage. It’s hard to imagine Diggs not commanding at least an 18% target share, and that’s probably low. That will make it difficult for Collins to reach 25%.
This is an offense that is going to score a lot of points. There is a world where Stroud throws for 4,500 yards and 35 touchdowns, allowing everyone to eat. However, the most likely outcome is both Collins and Dell are very good with neither being great due to the existence of the other plus Diggs.
I have Collins ranked as my WR14, which is right at his WR14 ADP. I have slowly come around on Collins as the clear top guy in Houston. I still really like Dell, but Collins is very much in play in the third round.
Derek Tate’s Fantasy Outlook
Diggs’ Target Share Since 2020:
2023: 29.5% (ninth among WRs)
2022: 28.4% (10th)
2021: 26.4% (13th)
2020: 29.1% (third)
Sure, the situations aren’t apples to apples by any means. Yet, Diggs’ struggles over the back half of the year may be fooling fantasy managers into thinking he isn’t a big threat to Collins in 2024.
Additionally, Tank Dell and Dalton Schultz aren’t scrubs either. Dell was almost as productive as Collins on a per-game basis last year, and Schultz has seen 88+ targets in four straight seasons.
Look, I’m a big believer in Stroud too, but I do have my doubts whether or not he will be able to make four pass-catching options fantasy relevant this season.
Collins is still a nice bet to compete for the team lead in targets when it is all said and done, but the impact of Diggs and Dell could lead to some very volatile weeks for the fourth-year receiver in 2024.
