We want to see progression from young players. Last season, Kenneth Walker III was pretty much the same guy he was as a rookie. How will the Seattle Seahawks‘ new coaching staff treat the third-year back? Should fantasy football managers be concerned about drafting Walker?
Kenneth Walker III’s 2024 Fantasy Forecast
It’s great that Walker didn’t exactly get worse from his rookie season to his sophomore season, but he didn’t get better, either.
Walker played exactly 15 games in each season, totaling 1,164 and 1,215 yards from scrimmage, exactly nine touchdowns, and averaging 13.5 and 13.3 fantasy points per game, respectively. It’s uncanny how similarly he performed.
The good news is the addition of Zach Charbonnet didn’t seem to negatively impact Walker’s production. The bad news is that fact may not remain true this season.
Walker was drafted by the previous regime — albeit, so was Charbonnet. However, Pete Carroll always had a sense of allegiance to the running back he decided was his main guy. That was clearly Walker. Now, it’s an unknown. There is undoubtedly a non-zero chance Charbonnet can play his way into the RB1 role this season. I wouldn’t say it’s likely, but it’s possible.
Last year, Walker’s yards per carry dropped from 4.6 to 4.1. He also produced fewer splash plays, running for 15+ yards on 4.6% of his carries, a 2.9% drop from the year before.
On the bright side, Walker was still elite at making defenders miss. His evaded-tackles-per-touch rate was 12th as a rookie and second as a sophomore … we’d just like to see him do a little more after evading tackles.
If Walker is going to take a massive step forward, the biggest area in which he could do so is his touchdowns. There’s certainly plenty of meat left on the bone there.
Unfortunately, outside of scoring more, it’s difficult to envision how Walker could significantly improve. An increase in efficiency would help but only marginally. The impact of gaining half a yard per carry just isn’t that great.
More passing game work would help. Walker only saw a 7.7% target share last season. However, Charbonnet has that role, and I don’t see him giving it up. That makes Walker largely the same player we’ve seen over the past two years, but one who lacks easily cognizable upside.
Walker’s ADP currently sits at RB17, No. 43 overall. Where he goes overall is perfectly fine, but that’s a product of WRs being pushed up draft boards. The RB17 price tag is tough because, so far, it’s represented his ceiling. His RB16 performance as a rookie is the best he’s done in his two short years.
Walker’s upside is likely in the RB12-14 range, so it’s not fair to say he’s being drafted at his ceiling, though he’s being drafted close to it. Meanwhile, a reality where Charbonnet severely eats into Walker’s workload could see him finish in the RB24-30 range.
I have Walker ranked as my RB18, which is only slightly below consensus. He’s not necessarily someone to avoid, but he’s not someone to target either. Fantasy managers should treat Walker purely as a value proposition. If he’s the right guy going in the right spot at the right time, he’s fine to draft, but there’s no reason to reach for him.