Arizona Cardinals TE Trey McBride closed out 2023 with a bang, and the assumption is that the growth he showed will be sustained. Over the final five weeks of the fantasy football season, McBride was pacing for 126 catches, courtesy of elite volume and an 84.1% catch rate.
A record season might not be on the horizon, and the addition of Marvin Harrison Jr. will lead to far more target competition, but the talent is no secret and has managers excited.
Is McBride worthy of an early pick as he enters his third NFL season?
Trey McBride’s 2024 Fantasy Forecast
Let’s start with the obvious — McBride is a problem. His success late last season was him taking full advantage of his health and opportunity, it wasn’t some flash in the pan that we will be chasing for years to come.
I mean, on top of his gridiron numbers accomplishments, McBride holds his high school’s record for career points scored on the basketball court and home runs hit on the baseball diamond.
McBride’s an athletic marvel who won the John Mackey Award in 2021 and became the Cardinals’ first tight end to have a 100-yard game since 1989.
Trey McBride's splits with and without Kyler Murray last season:
8 games with: 8.3 TGT, 6.6 REC, 67.3 REC YDS, .3 TDs, 14.8 FPPG
9 games without: 4.4 TGT, 3.1 REC, 31.9 REC YDS, .1 TDs, 7 FPPG
14.8 FPPG would have had him as the TE1 last season. pic.twitter.com/X8jsQJXBAS
— Nick Penticoff (@NickPenticoff) June 4, 2024
How he closed last season is probably unsustainable, but McBride can only regress so much. He earned targets at a high level while also running downfield and taking on various coverages (posting an elite catch rate).
Some of that was good fortune, but McBride’s unique usage is an indicator of Arizona knowing that it has a walking mismatch on its hands and is willing to be creative.
Of course, with Harrison now in the mix and projecting as the team leader in all receiving categories, the targets aren’t going to be funneled McBride’s way the same way this season as last. That’s a major change given that McBride, despite not having more than 32 receiving yards in a game until mid-October, led Arizona in receiving yards by 251 and in catches by 30.
Sam LaPorta was able to have a big season alongside an alpha WR1, but that’s the exception more than the norm. Harrison carries a 1,000-yard projection with him into 2024, a total that Rashee Rice didn’t hit next to Travis Kelce and Zay Flowers didn’t reach next to Mark Andrews.
McBride, for me, profiles a lot this season like Dalton Kincaid did last: a high-volume target in an offense built around a mobile QB with other pass-catching options poised to see regular looks.
There’s nothing wrong with that, but I would prefer 2024 Kincaid over the 2023 version, but that’s not how drafters are evaluating these two.
McBride is being drafted as a Tier 2 tight end, and I think that’s right (with Andrews, Kincaid, and sometimes Kyle Pitts). However, I’m moving him to the back of their range while the industry currently has him atop of it.
The schedule doesn’t concern me. McBride gets the Carolina Panthers and Los Angeles Rams during most fantasy Super Bowls, and he loses a tough matchup against the 49ers if your league doesn’t play through Week 18. Plus, the talent is as real as it gets.
Yet, I fear that McBride’s opportunity may not be as rock solid week over week as the industry seems to be forecasting, especially if Michael Wilson can take a step forward in his second season.
You’re not putting your team at risk by spending your fourth pick on McBride, I’m just more likely to go in a different direction.
