The Jacksonville Jaguars retooled their wide receiver room by a significant margin with the departures of Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones and the additions of Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis this offseason. Yet, there is a strong case to be made that Christian Kirk could actually be in a great position to be a big fantasy difference-maker again in 2024.
After a disappointing 2023 campaign and the addition of two vertical playmakers this offseason, what is the fantasy outlook for Kirk in 2024?
Christian Kirk’s 2024 Fantasy Forecast
Veteran wide receivers aren’t exactly the most exciting commodities in the world of fantasy football. They often feel like reliable floor options in the middle rounds that lack the elite upside to generate much attention and hype entering an NFL season.
Kirk definitely appears on the long list of boring, middle-aged WRs. Other names on this type of list include Amari Cooper, Tyler Lockett, and Chris Godwin.
Sure, even if Jags QB Trevor Lawrence finally reaches his true potential this season, Kirk is still never going to possess WR1 overall upside. But does he need to have great fantasy upside to be a great fantasy asset for your team?
Kirk hit double-digit fantasy points in eight of his 11 games played in a weird season for the Jacksonville offense, which makes it hard to dispute his fantasy floor.
Yes, his WR47 finish with just 57 receptions for 787 yards and three TDs in 2023 was disappointing, but injuries plaguing this unit all season long makes it a bit easier to dismiss this down year.
Recency bias makes it a bit easier to forget we are only one season removed from Kirk’s WR11 finish in full-PPR formats in 2022, with 84 receptions for 1,108 yards and eight TDs on 133 targets during his first year in Jacksonville.
Even in his down year in 2023, Kirk still averaged 12.5 fantasy points per game before a groin injury cost him the final five games of the year.
Now that Ridley and Jones are no longer on the roster, Kirk and Evan Engram are set to be Lawrence’s two most familiar faces in the passing game in 2023.
We definitely have to acknowledge the presence and potential impact of the dynamic rookie Thomas — who boasts exceptional top speed, foot quickness, and verticality on an elite 6’3″, 209-pound frame — potentially emerging as a major playmaking threat who could steal targets and red-zone looks away from Kirk.
Yet, Thomas’ limitations as a route runner and formation versatility likely means his role is going to be predominantly outside while Kirk maintains his exclusive and effective role in the slot.
If Davis couldn’t emerge as a weekly fantasy for managers as a member of the Buffalo Bills catching passes from Josh Allen, it is probably even more unlikely he will become Lawrence’s top option in Jacksonville.
On the surface, it may not look great for Kirk that the Jags added multiple capable pass-catchers this offseason, but both of these players likely aren’t threats to Kirk’s role in the slot — where he spent 67.4% of his time in 2023. And they could actually help open things up for him on the first and second level of the field with Thomas and Davis both threatening opposing defenses on the vertical plane.
Kirk’s current ADP at No. 73 overall in the seventh round as the WR31 off the board feels like stealing. He is a high-floor player who is a legitimate threat to be Lawrence’s most targeted player in 2024.
Kirk is a great draft day value who could outperform his ADP price tag by a nice margin this season.
