If we can formulate a consensus opinion based on current ADP information, it is safe to say that the fantasy football community doesn’t exactly have high expectations for the New England Patriots‘ offense in 2024.
Does this make Rhamondre Stevenson one of the best bargains in fantasy drafts, and what is his fantasy outlook for this upcoming season?
Rhamondre Stevenson’s 2024 Fantasy Forecast
After finishing the 2023 season ranked 30th in total offense (276.2), 31st in scoring (13.9 points per game average), and drafting a talented, but raw rookie quarterback prospect in Drake Maye at No. 3 overall in the 2024 NFL Draft, it’s easy to understand why fantasy managers aren’t exactly jumping at the opportunity to project any fantasy league-winners coming from this year.
The idea that either Maye in his rookie season or veteran journeyman Jacoby Brissett on his second stint with the team is going to lead one of the league’s best offenses doesn’t feel likely to be within the range of outcomes unless new offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt turns out to be an exceptionally innovative play caller or rookie receivers Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker both turn out to be stars.
This means Stevenson is likely to be an RB2 option that is highly dependent on volume, which can play in one of two ways in 2024.
If he continues to see the majority of the rushing work while returning to the elite usage in the passing game we saw from him in 2022 — 69 receptions for 421 yards on 88 targets — then Stevenson does have top-15 fantasy upside on volume alone despite being in a bad offense.
For some context, we saw the New York Jets’ offense finish 29th or lower in every major statistical category last season, and Breece Hall still managed to finish the year as the RB2 overall.
Yet, if Stevenson splits with another back like he did with Ezekiel Elliott — which is what the signing of Antonio Gibson would suggest — then Stevenson is going to have trouble finishing as a top-24 RB on a weekly basis in a middling offense.
Speaking of the middling offense, Stevenson had a -4.64 game script rating in an offense that constantly saw itself operating from behind in lower-scoring affairs. This is evident by the Patriots generating a league-worst 36 trips to the red zone last season.
This lack of scoring opportunities certainly caps the fantasy upside of a player who had a breakaway run rate of just 1.9% because of Stevenson’s inability to consistently create explosive plays.
The drop in efficiency last year was noteworthy, too. Stevenson averaged 5.0 yards per carry during his breakout campaign in 2022 only to see that number drop 4.0 last season while splitting work with Elliott.
Speaking of Elliott, the veteran running back actually had a better fantasy season than Stevenson in 2023.
New England Patriots 2023 RB Production
- Ezekiel Elliott: 955 total yards, 51 receptions, 5 TDs (RB30)
- Rhamondre Stevenson: 857 total yards, 38 receptions, 4 TDs (RB35)
Stevenson’s ADP currently rests at No. 65 overall as the RB22 in the top half of the sixth round in fantasy drafts, putting him in the same range as players like George Pickens, David Montgomery, and D’Andre Swift.
Now, is there the outside possibility that Maye exceeds our expectations and has a C.J. Stroud-type impact, which could drastically raise the production we expect from this offense this year? Yes, it’s possible … but about as likely as the state of Florida seeing snow in July.
Stevenson is a good player, but much of his RB7 overall finish in 2022 came from his volume of work in the passing game, which Gibson poses a threat to steal away from him in a similar fashion to Elliott last season.
Rhamondre Stevenson’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Total Fantasy Points: 221 (171 non-PPR)
- Rushing Yards: 981
- Rushing TDs: 6
- Receptions: 50
- Receiving Yards: 330
- Receiving TDs: 1
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 16. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.