The Chicago Bears‘ overhaul of the offensive side of the roster this offseason began with signing free agent RB D’Andre Swift to a lucrative three-year deal in March.
After posting the best rushing season of his young career as a member of the Philadelphia Eagles last year, how does Swift’s fantasy football outlook shape up heading into the 2024 NFL season?
D’Andre Swift’s 2024 Fantasy Forecast
On the surface, Swift’s career year on the ground with 1,049 rushing yards and six total scores on 268 total touches (229 carries) proves he can be an effective leading ball carrier for an NFL team.
Yet, Swift’s RB20 finish in full-PPR formats in 2023 was actually just one spot higher than his RB21 finish in 2022. This is despite seeing 121 more total touches in the seventh-highest-scoring offense in the league.
How exactly did this happen? Well, for starters, Eagles QB Jalen Hurts vulturing 15 rushing touchdowns away from Swift certainly didn’t do him any fantasy favors. Hurts saw 16 carries from inside the 5-yard line last year to Swift’s 10, with the former scoring 13 times to the latter’s two in 2023.
In addition to his goal-line work being stunted for a second straight season, Swift’s production as a pass catcher dropped significantly last year. His 49 targets, 39 receptions, 214 receiving yards, and one receiving score were all career-low marks, despite him playing a career-high 16 regular season games in 2023.
This drop in receiving production has nothing to do with Swift regressing as a pass-catching talent, but rather that he saw a career-low 10% target share, which ranked 24th amongst running backs last season. Additionally, Swift’s yards per route run dropped from an elite 1.78 in 2022 to a pedestrian 1.13 in 2023.
The one confusing — and potentially concerning — part about Swift’s production profile from last season is his drop in efficiency. His yards per touch, yards per carry, and explosive run rate all regressed by a noteworthy margin in 2023.
This makes Swift’s 3.0 yards before contact per attempt — which ranked fifth amongst RBs with 200+ carries last year — a bit more important, considering he played behind the high-quality Philadelphia offensive line last year.
Swift’s move to Chicago may come with an offensive line downgrade, but it does still position him to be the leading ball carrier of an ascending offense devoid of an elite short-yardage option.
Swift fantasy managers have frustratingly watched the talented back get his potentially elite goal-line rushing opportunities vultured by Hurts and Jamaal Williams the last two seasons. Those players combined for 27 rushing touchdowns inside the 5-yard line, while Swift has scored just four rushing touchdowns there over that same span.
This finally has a chance to not be the case for Swift in 2024, with Roschon Johnson and Khalil Herbert seeing a combined six carries from that area of the field last year. Rookie quarterback Caleb Williams is certainly capable of giving the team some rushing production with his legs, but he is far from a preferred goal-line rushing option.
The great pass-catching options in this offense with DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze could limit Swift’s receiving upside, but Swift is still positioned to be the leading ball carrier in an ascending offense.
This ultimately makes Swift’s ADP of No. 58 overall as the RB21 off the board a properly priced option as your fantasy RB2 in the fifth round on draft day.
Swift is currently going in the same range as players like Rhamondre Stevenson, Christian Kirk, and Tank Dell while going firmly ahead of running backs like Najee Harris, Zamir White, and Javonte Williams.
Swift enters another season as a productive player whose RB2 fantasy floor has been well established, but he does have some legitimate RB1 upside if he sees a similar rushing workload, an increased target share, and an expanded role in goal-to-go situations heading into 2024.
Swift’s upside makes him a great draft day value for your fantasy team.
Jason Katz’s Fantasy Insights on D’Andre Swift
It’s wild to think that a move from Philadelphia to Chicago could increase a player’s fantasy upside. Yet, that’s where we are with Swift.
Caleb Williams may not be better than Hurts…yet. However, he undoubtedly will give Swift more opportunities as a pass catcher.
Williams has gone on record saying he doesn’t like to run unless he has to. He’s nowhere near the rusher Hurts is. That means more dropbacks resulting in passes and not scrambles or designed rushes.
While Swift’s ceiling is objectively higher, his floor remains as low as ever.
Chicago’s offense has several weapons. Given what they’ve done at wide receiver — trading for DJ Moore last year, Keenan Allen this year, and drafting Rome Odunze with a top-10 pick — it’s hard to imagine this being an offense that leans on its running game.
The improved offense, combined with the lack of the Tush Push, increases Swift’s touchdown potential. However, there’s no guarantee he’ll be the goal-line back.
Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson both exist. Swift may be better than both of them, but that doesn’t mean the coaches necessarily want to expose him to hits in short yardage.
The hope is Chicago’s offense will enable Swift to be more efficient on fewer touches. He doesn’t need 15 carries and seven targets a game. Give him 10-12 carries and 4-6 targets, and that’s plenty for him to produce RB2 numbers.