Tampa Bay Buccaneers RB Rachaad White entered the second year of his NFL career with limited expectations, but he cleared them all by racking up 1,539 yards, nine touchdowns, and finishing fourth at the position in receptions (64).
The versatility is an obvious strength, but can White continue to overcome his shortcomings in terms of efficiency on the ground to return adequate fantasy football value?
Rachaad White’s 2024 Fantasy Forecast
Can we agree that the managers with White on their roster in 2023 got lucky? Baker Mayfield offered up a 4,000-yard season while White played every game and accounted for 62% of Tampa Bay’s total rush attempts, a massive number for a player who didn’t rush for 60 yards in a game until November.
What will 2024 have in store for Rachaad White?
pic.twitter.com/3TKIgQEpIc— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) May 11, 2024
Mayfield’s success in leading Tampa Bay’s offense was well above expectations, and yet, they still ranked 20th in scoring.
What happens if that takes a step back? What if White is unable to sustain the 91.4% catch rate that he posted last season? What about if Chris Godwin’s improved connection with Mayfield down the stretch — 36.4% more catches per game over final five games than his first 12 — is here to stay and cuts into White’s bottom line?
For me, White’s profile offers several more paths to disappointment than avenues to further improvement. He has averaged just 3.7 yards per carry for his career, and his next 40-yard rush or 45-touch will be his first as a professional.
As if White’s overall profile was prohibitive enough, the Bucs selected Bucky Irving (back-to-back seasons with 1,000+ rushing yards at Oregon, averages four catches per game last year) in the fourth round and still have Sean Tucker (over 3,000 rushing yards during his three seasons at Syracuse) if they want to explore committee options on the ground.
White is being treated as a fringe RB1, coming off of draft boards in the same range as Isiah Pacheco and James Cook. That’s not a price you’ll see me paying this summer, a fade I am very comfortable in making.
If you’re on the clock in the fourth round, White is, for me, well behind those featured backs, not to mention pass catchers like Amari Cooper, Keenan Allen, and both of Lamar Jackson’s primary targets in Baltimore, whom I view as much more stable assets in 2024.
If you think White will assume a similar role to the one he held during last season’s entirety, you’re getting a good price, especially in full-PPR leagues. That said, this is a fragile profile that can’t survive much regression (be it in his role or in the offense as a whole).
Last season was great if you rostered White, but be careful not to let those good times cloud your judgment for 2024. We, as an industry, were too low on all of the Buccaneers’ skill-position players 12 months ago — that’s a fact. Understanding that, overcorrecting stands to be even more detrimental as it can actively sink your team, whereas not being high enough on an offense doesn’t hurt your roster (it just doesn’t help it).
Derek Tate’s Analysis of Rachaad White’s Fantasy Outlook
The opinions on White are likely still going to be a bit polarizing.
His exceptionally high pass-catching floor, elite volume of total touches, and RB4 overall finish last season are sure to make some very high on the third-year back.
Those who are a bit more pessimistic about White’s outlook are sure to quickly point out his poor efficiency numbers on the ground and Irving’s possible role in the passing game as a complementary player.
White’s current ADP has settled in at No. 34 overall, which makes him the RB13 off the board. His late third-round value in full-PPR formats feels appropriately priced, given his floor and projected volume. His fantasy floor is tough to ignore in the late third round of fantasy drafts.
Yet, a retooled interior offensive line and lack of a power back to steal short-yardage or goal-line work away means if the Bucs’ offense gets even marginally better next year, White’s upside represents a great value in relation to his ADP.