New Orleans Saints RB Alvin Kamara has seen his yards per carry trend in the wrong direction over the past three seasons, but his pass-catching abilities have masked that flaw.
As Kamara approaches 2,000 career touches, can fantasy football managers continue to bank on the one-time league winner?
Alvin Kamara’s 2024 Fantasy Forecast
I don’t want to be dramatic, but is Kamara just a fancy version of Austin Ekeler (three rounds more expensive)?
Ekeler might be joining a new team with a more established threat to his volume on the ground on the depth chart, but the point remains that the trajectory is similar, which is a terrifying thought for a player currently being drafted in the fifth round.
Before we get to Kamara’s profile, I’m not sure how safe his touch count is as he enters his age-29 season. We’ve seen his carry count dip in consecutive seasons (18.5 per game in 2021 to 14.9 in 2022 to 13.8 last season), and I don’t see a reason to think that changes any time soon.
Jamaal Williams enters this season after missing a month early last year, and 2023 third-round pick Kendre Miller (nine DNPs as a rookie) pretty clearly has the attention of head coach Dennis Allen.
This was a below-average rushing offense last season, and if the lead role is in question, Kamara’s fantasy value is volatile at best. When he’s handed the ball, are we sure Kamara is still better than … well, the version of Ekeler that we saw last season? That is, a player with limited upside and role downside?
Kamara toted the rock 180 times last season and didn’t rip off a run of more than 17 yards. Do you remember that league-swinging performance on Christmas Day 2020? That was the last time he carried a gain of more than 30 yards.
Yards per carry (carries per rushing TD)
- 2017: 6.1 YPC (TD every 15 carries)
- 2018: 4.6 YPC (TD every 13.9 carries)
- 2019: 4.7 YPC (TD every 34.2 carries)
- 2020: 5.0 YPC (TD every 11.7 carries)
- 2021: 3.7 YPC (TD every 60 carries)
- 2022: 4.0 YPC (TD every 111.5 carries)
- 2023: 3.9 YPC (TD every 36 carries)
I want to buy the dip with Kamara as much as anyone, but his current ADP as a top-20 running back is a tough sell. He holds more value in PPR formats where Derek Carr’s propensity to check down can pay dividends, even if the per-touch production is minimal, but we’re walking a fine line.
In the later stages of the fifth round, I’m much more apt to take the WR1 in an offense that I want to buy stock in — receivers like Terry McLaurin or Jayden Reed. I don’t find myself landing a Tier 1 quarterback in most situations, so this is also the Anthony Richardson zone as I look to layer upside on a roster that likely has stability built in through the first few rounds.
Alvin Kamara has been putting on a fantasy football clinic in 2023 🔥🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/W07I89EKKN
— PlayerProfiler (@rotounderworld) October 29, 2023
I’m not writing an obituary on Kamara as a fantasy option; I’m just not overly interested in this range at the RB position. His profile carries a good amount of risk that I think many drafters are willing to overlook because of the nostalgia that comes with his name.
Aaron Jones is being drafted in this neighborhood, and other non-perfect backs like Rhamondre Stevenson and Najee Harris go slightly later.
In a perfect world, you’ve built your roster in such a way that you don’t need to be thinking about this range of running backs. Grab one or two early and then wait until the second half of the draft. If the receiver position provides value early and often, Kamara will have to be on your radar if he falls, but you need to be aware of the risk you’re taking in drafting this one-time fantasy star.
Jason Katz’s Fantasy Analysis for Alvin Kamara
Early in his career, Kamara was one of the most efficient backs in the NFL. In each of his first four seasons, he averaged at least 5.3 yards per touch. But beginning in Year 5, his role started changing.
Kamara never eclipsed 200 carries in his first four years in the NFL. His highest attempts per game was 12.9. Over his past three seasons, though, he’s handled 240, 223, and 180 carries (the latter in just 13 games), respectively, averaging 18.5, 14.9, and 13.8 carries per game over that span.
This increase in pure rushing volume has cratered Kamara’s efficiency. He hasn’t averaged over 4.0 yards per carry since 2020. Last season, Kamara was only at 3.9 ypc. Yet, he was still quite a valuable fantasy asset, averaging 17.9 fantasy points per game, finishing as the overall RB3.
Why? Receptions.
Kamara’s 19.3% target share was second in the league. He wasn’t efficient on his carries, and he struggled to make defenders miss. But Kamara caught a ton of passes — 75 to be exact — which was second in the league despite missing four games.
I want to be out on Kamara. There are certainly plenty of reasons to be concerned. He’s shown clear signs of decline as a runner, including after he gets the ball in his hands through the air.