After exploding onto the fantasy football landscape with an RB1 overall campaign back in 2021, Indianapolis Colts RB Jonathan Taylor has put together a pair of disappointing RB33 finishes the last two seasons.
Does Taylor still possess the elite RB1 overall fantasy ceiling heading into the 2024 NFL season?
Jonathan Taylor’s 2024 Fantasy Forecast
Taylor’s 2023 campaign was an incredibly unique fantasy journey that was filled with drama, injuries, and flashes of former greatness.
Taylor started the year on injured reserve with an ankle injury that cost him the first four games of the season. He also missed another three games with a thumb injury over the back half of the season. These durability concerns have led to Taylor missing 13 games over the last two seasons.
Unfortunately for fantasy managers who rolled the dice on Taylor early in their fantasy drafts, he wasn’t a league-winning type producer even when he was on the field in 2023. To be brutally honest, Zack Moss was a huge thorn in Taylor’s fantasy side all season long with his 183 carries for 794 yards and seven total TDs, which was nearly identical to Taylor’s 2023 stat line of 169 carries for 741 yards and eight TDs.
Taylor was frustratingly stuck in a timeshare for two weeks after returning to the lineup from IR with a combined 14 carries for 37 yards in Weeks 5 and 6. Yet, Taylor’s overall volume ramped back up to workhorse status from Week 7 through the rest of the season, as he averaged 21 total touches for 99 total yards per game.
This usage towards the end of the season suggests Taylor should still be in the RB1 conversation entering 2024, especially if head coach Shane Steichen is able to unlock the elite potential of franchise quarterback Anthony Richardson this year.
Additionally, I don’t see a running back on the Colts’ roster who poses a similar threat to Taylor’s overall volume that we saw from Moss last season.
Now, could Richardson slightly impact Taylor’s TD production with his elite dual-threat ability? Yes, it is certainly possible when you look at the impact of players like Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen vulturing away TDs from running backs. Yet, Taylor is still an elite short-yardage option, which makes him a threat to score 10+ touchdowns in 2024.
His passing-catching floor is hard to project with such a limited sample size of Richardson under center last year, but with Evan Hull and Tyler Goodson as the team’s complimentary options, Taylor could lose some work on passing downs, but nothing that should be considered alarming.
Taylor could still realistically be in the mix for around 40 receptions this year, which is the exact mark he hit back in 2021 for his RB1 overall season.
Taylor’s current ADP has currently dropped out of the first round at No. 11 overall as the RB5 off the board, which puts him firmly in the range of a late first round pick in fantasy drafts.
Other running backs currently going in his range are Saquon Barkley and Kyren Williams, and receivers Davante Adams and Drake London are also being selected in this area. A real argument can be made that Taylor has more fantasy upside in this ascending offense than any of the other players mentioned in this same range.
Sure, Taylor’s injury concerns over the past two years have justifiably pushed his draft day value down the board a bit, but I would argue Taylor has a lengthier track record of being a reliable bellcow back who is capable of handling an elite amount of volume than one who can’t stay healthy.
Once upon a time, we saw Christian McCaffrey miss 20 games over a two-year span but quickly bounce back with consecutive healthy seasons that led to elite fantasy production. Taylor hasn’t suffered a catastrophic injury that could threaten his explosiveness, and he handled a workhorse-type workload during his 2021 season and his college days at Wisconsin with no issue.
Taylor represents a great ADP value at his current price.