Houston Texans WR Nico Collins broke out in his third season, racking up nearly 1,300 yards and finding the end zone eight times in 2023. Collins’ physical profile has had the attention of fantasy football managers since he stepped foot on an NFL field, and while last season was great, questions persist in 2024 due to the number of viable targets in this suddenly explosive offense.
Is Collins a fade based on the expectations he set last season, or is his ADP in such a spot where he’s a good buy?
Should You Select Nico Collins at His Current ADP?
ADP: 32nd Overall (WR15)
Collins is coming off of draft boards as a fringe fantasy WR1 in the late third round of drafts. That lands him after young pedigree options in Chris Olave and Drake London and ahead of veteran receivers like Deebo Samuel and Diggs.
Collins’ draft-day cost is right around that of Michael Pittman Jr. While they are different players, I think that’s the right price range. Both are upside WR1s with a young quarterback in offenses that we expect to finish in the top 10 in most categories. Collins has the more refined passer but also more target competition, making this a coin-flip call for managers.
I don’t think there’s a wrong answer. Expecting significant growth from Collins is tough due to the number of mouths to feed, but repeating 2023 (80-1,297-8) is very much in play. That would be just fine for how he’s being treated.
I have Collins ranked as a WR1 and will be investing with consistency at his current price.
Collins’ Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
Collins’ 6’4” frame is exactly what we want from an alpha receiver in this offense with a franchise, pass-first QB. As the clear-cut WR1 in 2023, Collins felt inevitable, as he was efficient in the targets he earned (73.4% catch rate) and recorded a 23+ yard grab in 13 of 17 games, including the playoffs.
Welcome to primetime: CJ Stroud hits Nico Collins for a 75-yard TD on his very first offensive play.
SPECIAL.pic.twitter.com/MVbavVguac
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) January 7, 2024
The questions surrounding Collins aren’t much about him as a player; they’re about Stefon Diggs’ impact.
The former Buffalo Bills star is coming off of four consecutive 100-catch seasons. Even if you feel like the second half of last season was the beginning of Diggs’ decline, he was still garnering over eight targets per game.
What I saw (and the numbers bear out) was that Diggs may have lost a step, not his talent. The days of him averaging 17.9 yards per catch (2019 with the Minnesota Vikings) are gone. Heck, I’m comfortable in betting against the 13.2 he averaged in 2022, but I’m confident that a receiver with nearly 1,300 targets on his résumé will find a way to impact this upward-trending offense.
Collins and Tank Dell combined for over 14 targets per game in 2023, and I think that’s pretty reasonable to project upon the Collins/Diggs tandem with Dell seeing more variance week-to-week. If we’re operating under the assumption that there are 14-ish targets to divvy up between these two, I’d make Collins the slight favorite to out-earn Diggs, with him holding a significant edge in the fantasy upside per target.