Jacksonville Jaguars WR Christian Kirk was supposed to play second fiddle to Calvin Ridley last season. Instead, the incumbent was the more productive and effective receiver, both in real life and fantasy football.
With Ridley gone, can Kirk once again shine as this team’s top WR?
Should You Select Christian Kirk at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 70th Overall (WR31)
- 2023 Recap: Kirk was expected to play second fiddle to Calvin Ridley last season but ended up being the more productive and effective receiver. He averaged 12.5 fantasy points per game, proving to be a solid value pick.
- Slot Success: Kirk’s success is largely due to his role in the slot, where he ran 67% of his routes in 2023. This allowed him to average 2.12 yards per route run, ranking 19th in the league.
- 2024 Outlook: With Ridley gone and new additions Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas Jr. in the mix, Kirk is expected to remain the focal point in the slot. The new arrivals shouldn’t significantly impact his target share.
- ADP Value: Kirk is currently being drafted as the WR31, 70th overall. This presents a great value for a player who has WR2 upside and is likely to maintain a prominent role in the Jaguars’ passing attack.
- Quarterback Situation: While Trevor Lawrence is not an elite quarterback, he is competent enough to support Kirk’s fantasy value. Kirk should continue to see a steady volume of targets, making him a reliable option.
- Final Verdict: Kirk’s current ADP makes him an appealing target in the middle rounds. He offers solid WR3 production with the potential for WR2 upside, making him a strong pick for fantasy managers looking for value at the wide receiver position.
PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for Christian Kirk
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis.
54) Trey McBride, TE | Arizona Cardinals
55) DK Metcalf, WR | Seattle Seahawks
56) Terry McLaurin, WR | Washington Commanders
57) Rashee Rice, WR | Kansas City Chiefs
58) Zamir White, RB | Las Vegas Raiders
59) Christian Kirk, WR | Jacksonville Jaguars
60) James Conner, RB | Arizona Cardinals
61) Anthony Richardson, QB | Indianapolis Colts
62) Zack Moss, RB | Cincinnati Bengals
63) Najee Harris, RB | Pittsburgh Steelers
64) Rhamondre Stevenson, RB | New England Patriots
Christian Kirk’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 Fantasy Season
One of the biggest stories of the 2022 offseason was the exorbitant contract given to Kirk by the Jaguars. It literally created a term, “Christian Kirk money.” The pressure was on for Kirk to justify his contract. To Kirk’s credit, he did as well as he could have.
Kirk had the best season of his career two years ago, catching 84 passes for 1,108 yards and eight touchdowns. He averaged 14.2 fantasy points per game, finishing as the overall WR18.
Christian Kirk is fast and the Jaguars have the lead 💯#JAXvsNO on Prime Video
Also available on #NFLPlus https://t.co/89nUeCngbn pic.twitter.com/SQfWTMpTUg— NFL (@NFL) October 20, 2023
While Kirk proved every bit capable of being Trevor Lawrence’s top target, the Jaguars traded for Ridley during the 2022 season. Naturally, this lowered Kirk’s value heading into the 2023 season, as Ridley was expected to be the WR1.
Due to his depressed ADP, Kirk wound up being a pretty good value last season. His 12.5 fantasy points per game certainly left more to be desired, but Kirk played quite well, averaging 2.12 yards per route run, 19th in the league.
Although Ridley did not play nearly as well as expected, his presence was still a problem for Kirk’s volume. Kirk’s target share dropped from 23.2% to 20.8%, and his targets-per-route-run rate went from 25.7% to 22.9%.
Should You Select Kirk at His Current ADP?
The key to Kirk’s success is playing the slot. Inexplicably, the Cardinals refused to use Kirk where he performs best.
Fortunately, the Jaguars did not suffer from the same ailment. Kirk ran 52% of his routes from the slot in 2022 and 67% in 2023.
The concern this year is whether Ridley’s departure will force Kirk back outside. I don’t think it will.
In addition to losing Ridley, the Jaguars also lost Zay Jones. That left Kirk as the only viable receiver. So, they signed Gabe Davis and drafted Brian Thomas Jr.
Initially, this may seem bad for Kirk, as more target competition is never good. However, I posit that Thomas and Davis combine to form no more of a threat to Kirk’s target share than Ridley and Jones did.
Thomas projects to be a better receiver than Ridley was last season (admittedly, it’s not a particularly high bar). However, Davis is a sizable downgrade from Jones in terms of a target threat.
I don’t mean to say Davis is a far worse receiver. Rather, he’s just different. Davis is there to be a stretch Z, nothing more. He’s going to run downfield and occasionally make plays. He does not project for a very high target share. And what he offers is very different from what Kirk does. As a result, the two should not overlap.
Thomas is the greater threat as the better talent. However, he is still a rookie, and there’s enough to go around for Kirk and Thomas to thrive. Overall, this is a good situation for Kirk.
While I typically prefer targeting players with good quarterbacks, I would stop short of classifying Lawrence as such. Kirk is a talented player who should see good opportunities. Plus, it’s not as if Lawrence is awful. He’s average.
Most importantly, Kirk’s ADP is WR30, which puts him at No. 70 overall. While I’m only slightly higher with him at WR26, I do like Kirk a lot. The fact that you can get a reliable WR3 with WR2 upside this far down the WR rankings is very appealing.
The wide receiver position is incredibly deep, but Kirk is definitely a player fantasy managers should target in the middle rounds.