The Houston Texans appeared to have hit a home run in the 2023 NFL Draft after C.J. Stroud had a historically productive season in his rookie season under center.
After adding a couple of big-name skill-position players to the mix this offseason, can fantasy football managers expect Stroud to realistically enter the QB1 overall discussion heading into the 2024 NFL season?
Should You Select C.J. Stroud at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 50th Overall (QB5)
- Outstanding Rookie Season: Stroud impressed in his rookie year, throwing for 4,108 yards and 23 touchdowns with only five interceptions. His poise and ability to perform despite a lackluster supporting cast highlight his potential as a future star.
- Advanced Metrics: Stroud ranked highly in intended air yards per attempt (9.2) and tight window throws, demonstrating his willingness to push the ball downfield and his ability to handle pressure like a veteran quarterback.
- Offseason Additions: The Texans bolstered their offense by adding Stefon Diggs, a top-tier receiver who provides a reliable target for Stroud and enhances his chances of a breakout season. Joe Mixon also joins the backfield, adding stability to the rushing attack and aiding in third-down conversions.
- Potential for Growth: With a returning offensive coordinator in Bobby Slowik and an upgraded supporting cast, Stroud is in an excellent position to build on his rookie-year success and take another step forward in 2024.
- ADP Analysis: Stroud is currently being drafted as the QB5 at No. 50 overall, which is a significant leap for a second-year player. While this ranking is aggressive, it reflects the confidence in Stroud’s potential given his situation and the improvements around him.
- Final Verdict: Stroud offers significant upside, but his current ADP may be too high in 1QB leagues, especially when considering more established options like Joe Burrow, Kyler Murray, and Dak Prescott. However, his potential to deliver elite fantasy production in 2024 is clear, making him a viable target for those willing to bet on his continued development.
PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for C.J. Stroud
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis.
61) Anthony Richardson, QB | Indianapolis Colts
62) Zack Moss, RB | Cincinnati Bengals
63) Najee Harris, RB | Pittsburgh Steelers
64) Rhamondre Stevenson, RB | New England Patriots
65) Jaylen Warren, RB | Pittsburgh Steelers
66) C.J. Stroud, QB | Houston Texans
67) Dalton Kincaid, TE | Buffalo Bills
68) Keenan Allen, WR | Chicago Bears
69) Joe Burrow, QB | Cincinnati Bengals
70) Evan Engram, TE | Jacksonville Jaguars
71) Tank Dell, WR | Houston Texans
C.J. Stroud’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
Despite Los Angeles Rams WR Puka Nacua’s historic rookie season last season, Stroud, with his exceptional play on the field in 2023, took home the Offensive Rookie of the Year award.
Numbers don’t tell the entire story of Stroud’s success last year, but they do paint a pretty nice picture of how effective he was from the moment he stepped onto an NFL field.
Stroud’s 4,108 passing yards and 23 touchdowns with just five interceptions was outstanding when you consider the situation he was stepping into with Nico Collins, Tank Dell, Robert Woods, and Dalton Schultz as his top options in the passing game.
The absence of an effective running game for the majority of the season did nothing but put more on the plate of a rookie QB, which didn’t appear to phase Stroud at all. He handled that and an offensive line that had its woes with incredible poise for a rookie QB.
CJ Stroud extends the play for another Tank Dell TD 🔥
📺: #JAXvsHOU on CBS
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/1dOevJjoZZ pic.twitter.com/M8Lz8Oft0O— NFL (@NFL) November 26, 2023
His advanced analytics numbers look pretty good too.
Stroud’s intended air yards per attempt (9.2) and throws into tighter windows (24) were amongst the highest in the league. He flashed a veteran-type savvy to manipulate a crowded pocket and throw with anticipation over the middle of the field. His air yards per attempt suggest he’s willing to push the ball down the field consistently, which pairs incredibly well with his 33.2 passing attempts per game.
Now comes the fun part. This offseason, the Texans decided to trade for Stefon Diggs, which gives Houston a moveable weapon along the formation and who can still be an effective security blanket on third downs with exceptional route-running skills and the ability to threaten defenses downfield.
No one has caught more passes than Diggs since 2020, which gives fantasy managers reason to confidently consider Stroud as a breakout fantasy candidate QB for the 2024 season.
The Texans also added Joe Mixon to the backfield. Mixon is a serviceable option in the passing game but likely doesn’t do much for Stroud outside of improving their conversion rate on third and short situations, which Houston did rank toward the bottom of the league in last year.
Outside of needing to limit his turnover-worthy plays in his sophomore season, Stroud is in a great spot to improve upon his outstanding rookie-year production.
Is Stroud a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?
Outside of the Chicago Bears’ trio of DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze, it’s hard to name a better triumvirate of pass catchers than what Stroud will have in 2024.
Stroud is currently going off the board at No. 50 overall (QB5). The logic behind this ranking is certainly feasible, but passing on names like Joe Burrow, Kyler Murray, and Dak Prescott is certainly a strong projection for a second-year player.
Admittedly, Stroud is very well-positioned with a returning offensive coordinator (Bobby Slowik) who showed plenty of promise, the addition of a proven top-15 WR, and a revamped rushing attack that could help elevate this offense to an elite level.
I think this is probably just a bit too aggressive for my liking in 1QB leagues. Yet, unlike many price points, I simply can’t get behind; I do firmly understand why Stroud is currently being drafted at this spot.