For two franchises who have such a storied rivalry in the NFC North, it sure does seem like many long-time members of the Green Bay Packers eventually spend time wearing Minnesota Vikings‘ purple towards the end of their NFL careers.
After the Packers decided to part ways with RB Aaron Jones this offseason, what can fantasy football managers expect from the veteran ball carrier as the feature back of this Vikings’ offense?
Should You Select Aaron Jones at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 60th Overall (RB18)
- Disappointing 2023 Season: Jones had a down year in 2023, finishing as the RB37 overall with 889 total yards and three touchdowns in 11 games. This marked his lowest fantasy finish since his rookie season in 2017.
- Injury Context: Jones battled hamstring and knee injuries throughout 2023, limiting his effectiveness. However, when healthy, he still delivered solid performances, including five consecutive 100-yard rushing games to close the season, showing he still has something left in the tank.
- Strong Finish to 2023: Jones ended the season on a high note, with five strong rushing performances, including a dominant Wild Card game where he rushed for 118 yards and three touchdowns. His late-season surge suggests he can still produce at a high level.
- Receiving Ability: Jones remains a viable threat in the passing game, ranking second among qualified backs with 1.85 yards per route run and averaging 7.8 yards per reception in 2023. This should translate well in Minnesota’s offense.
- Competition in the Backfield: Jones faces minimal competition from Ty Chandler for touches in the Vikings’ backfield. With AJ Dillon no longer sharing the load, Jones could see a significant workload as the feature back in Minnesota.
- ADP Analysis: Jones is currently being drafted as the RB18 at No. 60 overall. Given his proven ability and the lack of serious competition for touches, he presents strong value at this price point, especially when compared to other Flex options in this range.
- Final Verdict: Jones has the potential to deliver a low-end RB1 season if he can stay healthy and maintain his late-season form from 2023. At his current ADP, he offers considerable upside as a fifth-round pick in fantasy drafts.
PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for Aaron Jones
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis.
43) DJ Moore, WR | Chicago Bears
44) DeVonta Smith, WR | Philadelphia Eagles
45) Cooper Kupp, WR | Los Angeles Rams
46) Lamar Jackson, QB | Baltimore Ravens
47) David Montgomery, RB | Detroit Lions
48) Aaron Jones, RB | Minnesota Vikings
49) Zay Flowers, WR | Baltimore Ravens
50) Tee Higgins, WR | Cincinnati Bengals
51) D’Andre Swift, RB | Chicago Bears
52) Malik Nabers, WR | New York Giants
53) Stefon Diggs, WR | Houston Texans
Aaron Jones’ Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
Fantasy managers who invested early draft capital in Jones last year were likely burned by his RB37 overall finish — the lowest mark since his rookie season in 2017.
Jones’ 2023 production of 889 total yards and three scores over 11 games on the field was certainly very disappointing. This steep drop in production could cause some fantasy managers to conclude that a back who will be 30 years old by the end of the 2024 season is washed and has very little left in the tank.
Consider this a small warning that jumping to that conclusion could be costly to your fantasy squad.
Jones’s production last season requires a significant amount of context. He battled both hamstring and knee injuries throughout the year, which likely prevented him from truly getting healthy until the final month of the season. Yet, when Jones was healthy in 2023, the fantasy results were actually encouraging.
Jones’ RB1 overall finish with 127 total yards and two scores in the season opener and five straight 100-yard rushing performances to close the year (including two playoff games) don’t suggest he’s washed entering the twilight purgatory of his NFL career.
Rushing Performances in the last five games:
- Week 16: 21 carries, 127 yards, 6.05 YPC (RB16)
- Week 17: 20 carries, 120 yards, 6.0 YPC (RB18)
- Week 18: 22 carries, 111 yards, 5.05 YPC (RB11)
- Wild Card Round: 21 carries, 118 yards, 5.62 YPC, 3 TDs (RB1 Overall)
- Divisional Round: 18 carries, 108 yards, 6.0 YPC (RB5)
Aaron Jones loves playing the Cowboys 🤠 @Showtyme_33
– 4 games
– 488 rush yards (83 carries)
– 5.9 yards per carry
– 9 rush TD
– 122 rush YPG vs DAL (most by any player with at least 3 G vs DAL) pic.twitter.com/cHpLLwrhUY— NFL (@NFL) January 15, 2024
Those performances tell me that Jones has something left in the tank. In addition, his receiving metrics still looked pretty good: 1.85 yards per route run, ranked second among qualified backs in 2023, and 7.8 yards per reception, projecting him as a potentially viable option in Minnesota’s passing attack out of the backfield.
Speaking of his new team, Jones joins an RB room with Ty Chandler as his only noteworthy competition for touches in the backfield. Chandler doesn’t seem like a huge threat to steal a similar amount of work away from Jones, though, as AJ Dillon did during his days in Green Bay.
Minnesota averaged just 91.4 rushing yards per game last year, with Alexander Mattison inefficiently plodding his way to 700 yards on 180 carries. The Vikings’ offensive line still has enough to generate rushing lanes against some of the lighter fronts they’re sure to see, with Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson demanding the proper amount of attention from opposing defenses.
If Jones can see north of 225 carries as Minnesota’s feature back, while maintaining the efficiency on the ground we saw from him to finish out 2023, then he could have one more low-end RB1 season left in the tank this upcoming season.
Is Jones a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?
Discounts on draft day can take many forms based on recency bias. Jones’ disappointing 2023 production is certainly baked into his ADP of No. 60 overall (RB18) in fantasy drafts.
For some perspective, that’s just two spots higher than we saw Mattison drafted last year, when he was projected to be the Vikings’ bell-cow back. Jones still flashed plenty of big-play ability and pass-catching chops to suggest he will be the leading man in this backfield, which represents plenty of upside at his current ADP price point.
Considering some of the other Flex players in this range consist of Najee Harris, Rhamondre Stevenson, and George Pickens, I would feel comfortable selecting Jones in the fifth round.