Once upon a time, the free agent signing of RB Lamar Miller had the fantasy football community hyped about a leading role in the Houston Texans backfield. Yet, the excitement around Joe Mixon becoming the leading back of an ascending offense under second-year QB C.J. Stroud feels like an afterthought of all the moves this offseason.
What can fantasy managers expect from Mixon in his first season with the Texans in 2024?
Should You Select Joe Mixon at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 45th Overall (RB16)
- Consistent Production: Mixon has been one of the most reliable fantasy backs over the last six seasons, finishing as a top-13 RB in five of those years. His RB6 finish in 2023, despite Joe Burrow’s injury, highlights his consistency and reliability as a fantasy asset.
- Strong Finish to 2023: Mixon was the RB4 from Week 12 onward last season, averaging 18.1 fantasy points per game in full-PPR formats. His ability to produce even with a backup quarterback under center bodes well for his 2024 outlook.
- Red-Zone Efficiency: Mixon was highly effective in short-yardage situations in 2023, converting six touchdowns on 18 rushing attempts inside the five-yard line. He also had the third most red-zone carries in the league, a role he’s likely to maintain in Houston’s offense.
- Immediate Upgrade for Houston: Mixon steps into a Texans offense that struggled with efficiency in the red zone last season. With Devin Singletary gone and Dameon Pierce struggling with efficiency, Mixon is poised to take over as the feature back and see significant volume in 2024.
- Receiving Role: While Mixon may not see as many targets as in previous years due to the presence of Stefon Diggs, Nico Collins, and others, he’s still expected to handle 270+ total touches, making him a valuable fantasy option.
- ADP Analysis: Mixon’s current ADP of No. 45 overall as the RB16 suggests he’s being drafted at his floor, with room for top-10 upside. Despite approaching the age cliff for RBs, Mixon’s role and lack of competition make him a strong value in the fourth round.
- Final Verdict: Mixon offers a solid combination of volume, red-zone opportunities, and proven production. He’s a safe RB2 with the potential to deliver RB1 numbers, making him a smart pick at his current ADP in the 2024 fantasy draft.
PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for Joe Mixon
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis.
23) Isiah Pacheco, RB | Kansas City Chiefs
24) Michael Pittman Jr., WR | Indianapolis Colts
25) Josh Jacobs, RB | Green Bay Packers
26) Rachaad White, RB | Tampa Bay Buccaneers
27) Mike Evans, WR | Tampa Bay Buccaneers
28) Joe Mixon, RB | Houston Texans
29) Davante Adams, WR | Las Vegas Raiders
30) Jaylen Waddle, WR | Miami Dolphins
31) Nico Collins, WR | Houston Texans
32) Sam LaPorta, TE | Detroit Lions
33) Josh Allen, QB | Buffalo Bills
Joe Mixon’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
One could make a case that Mixon has been the most under-appreciated fantasy running back of the last six seasons. Outside of an injury-plagued 2020 campaign, Mixon has finished as a top-13 fantasy back in full-PPR formats in five of the last six years.
Has it helped to play in an offense that features Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase the last three seasons? Yes, of course it has. Yet, his RB6 finish in 2023 came with his quarterback missing a significant amount of time due to injury and a jump in production with Burrow out of the lineup over the final seven games of the season.
In fact, Mixon was actually the RB4 from Week 12 through the rest of the regular season with Jake Browning under center, averaging 18.1 fantasy points per game in full-PPR formats.
Mixon’s final stat line of 1,410 total yards with 52 receptions and 12 TDs should be viewed as a positive regarding his outlook entering another fantasy-friendly situation in Houston in 2024. Mixon has never been a highly efficient ball carrier, averaging just 4.1 yards per carry over his seven-year career, but his reliability as a leading ball carrier and effectiveness as a short-yardage option project him for the exact role you want for a fantasy back.
Last year, Mixon generated six TDs on 18 rushing attempts inside the five-yard line. For some context, Dameon Pierce was the team’s preferred option in similar situations last season, and he netted minus-1 yard on eight carries and two scores in 2023.
Additionally, Mixon saw the third most red-zone carries in the league in 2023 — trailing only Christian McCaffrey and Tony Pollard. We could see a similar volume this season, assuming the Texans’ offense is as productive as we project in 2024. Houston’s offense was 16th in the NFL with a 54.7% TD conversion rate in the red zone last season, largely resulting from scoring just 10 rushing TDs (three by Stroud) — tied for 23rd in the league.
Devin Singletary was the most productive fantasy back in Houston last year, with 1,091 total yards and four rushing TDs adequate for an RB32 overall fantasy finish. Yet, after taking the leading role away from Pierce, who was out due to injury, in Week 9, Singletary was actually the RB13 through the rest of the regular season.
Mixon is an immediate improvement over Singletary in short-yardage situations and should be the Texans’ feature back in 2024.
Sure, he isn’t a lock to see 60+ targets for a third straight year, with Stefon Diggs, Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and Dalton Schultz commanding their fair share of looks from Stroud in the passing game, but Mixon feels like a lock for 270+ total touches in this offense and enters the 2024 NFL season as a viable RB2 option with RB1 upside.
Is Mixon a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?
Similar to last season, Mixon feels like a great discount on fantasy draft day with a current ADP of No. 45 overall as the RB16 off the board.
Mixon will be 28 years old heading into the 2024 NFL season, which makes him a candidate for potential efficiency regression soon as he quickly approaches the RB age cliff in his late 20s. Yet, the competition he is set to face in Houston’s’ backfield doesn’t feel like a real threat to his fantasy value this year.
Pierce averaged a woeful 2.87 yards per carry in 2023, the lowest mark of any running back who saw 120 carries. If Pierce regains the efficiency we saw from him during his rookie year, he could potentially see a similar role again in 2024, but losing your job to Singletary doesn’t exactly scream this backfield should be a committee this year.
Mixon’s current ADP suggests he is being drafted at his floor, an RB2, but I’d argue he still has a top-10 upside at the position, which means you should draft him at this price.