Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen has been as valuable as any asset in fantasy football of late, but the roster around him is quite a bit different this season than years prior. Will it slow him down, or should he be labeled as the premier option at the position entering 2024?
Should You Select Josh Allen at His Current ADP?
ADP:Â 26th Overall (QB1)
Personally, I’m not going to land on Allen in the late second round — not because I don’t think he can return fine value for that ADP, but because I don’t think he’s deserving of being selected a round ahead of Patrick Mahomes and Hurts.
For me, fantasy football is always about tiering your rankings and doing your best to wait out the bottom portions. I don’t think there’s much debate that Allen is deserving of Tier 1 treatment, even with the change in the supporting cast, but elevating him above the rest in the position is not something I’m willing to do.
I’m not too likely to overextend for any of the top signal-callers this season.
- Allen: Change in supporting cast
- Mahomes: Plenty of pass-catcher question marks
- Hurts: Impact of the Saquon Barkley acquisition and the Jason Kelce retirement
Anthony Richardson (fifth round) and Kyler Murray (early seventh round) are the two QBs I find myself landing on more often than not. I prefer to build a solid, volume-based foundation at the skill positions while getting access to a player with Tier 1 upside under center a few rounds later. Allen clearly has a higher likelihood of finishing as a top-three fantasy QB than either of my favorite options, but is it by enough to justify the price difference?
Not for me. I’ve docked Allen’s projection a little from what he posted last season, but not enough to truly worry about him. Drafting him is a matter of how you want to construct your roster — just because he doesn’t fit into my perfect plan doesn’t mean he doesn’t make sense for you.
Allen’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
Almost nothing can slow down Allen. Entering his age-28 season, Allen has accounted for at least 42 touchdowns in four straight seasons, passing for 4,200+ yards in each of those campaigns. His greatest “NFL” flaw is his aggression resulting in turnovers, but for our purposes, that is part of what makes him great.
I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again — Allen’s willingness to put the ball in harm’s way should be a reason you target him, not a reason to fade him. Why? When he connects on those passes, the payoff is far greater than the two points you lose when an errant throw gets picked off.
Josh Allen made some big time throws for the AFC East đź‘‘
(via @NextGenStats) pic.twitter.com/PhdgWuvij5
— NFL (@NFL) January 11, 2024
Allen channeled his inner Jalen Hurts in 2023, rushing for 15 scores (his first double-digit season). His physical style gives him as much scoring equity as any player in the league when inside the five-yard line, something that isn’t likely to change any time soon.
That brings us to the elephant in the room — the changes to his weaponry. Allen’s rushing production was nice to have last season, and he will likely need to put up big numbers on the ground again to return value on his ADP with Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis out of town.
While Allen has progressed as a passer, there certainly is some downside to consider through the air. Last season, he didn’t have multiple passing touchdowns in any of the final four weeks of the fantasy season, something that needs to be considered with tough matchups down the stretch (New England Patriots and New York Jets in Weeks 16-17) and a pass-catching corps who, combined, has a total of one 700-receiving-yard season (Curtis Samuel in 2020).
My concern is less about Allen’s ability and more about opportunity. Thanks to a high-floor offense and versatility among the pass catchers, Allen ranked eighth in red-zone pass attempts in addition to the elite rushing volume from in close.
As a reference point, Allen averaged one more red-zone throw per game than the other QB in his stratosphere as a ball carrier (Hurts), an edge that adds up throughout a long season.
Will Buffalo be in a position to score less often this year as it transitions to an unproven pass-catching nucleus? Will James Cook take another step forward and make this team one that relies on efficiency over volume? There are paths to failure, but at the end of the day, Allen’s skill set is tailor-made for our game, and he remains at the peak of his powers.